According to the policy speculation, in the future, long cruising range, high energy density batteries and low energy consumption models will become the key encouragement standards. This new policy directly cancels the subsidy for electric vehicles with cruising range of 100- 150 km. The subsidy for electric vehicles with poor battery quality, poor energy-saving performance and low cruising range will be reduced, and the maximum subsidy range may be reduced by more than 40%. It is estimated that this subsidy will affect more than 70% of vehicles.
Although there have been relevant plans for a long time, the subsidy retreat came a bit suddenly. 70% of the models that may be affected are domestic mainstream models, which will disrupt the production rhythm of enterprises to a great extent, and many original plans will have to be repeated. It is not necessarily a good phenomenon for enterprises.
In the case of policy adjustment, small electric vehicles and buses are greatly affected. Relevant data show that the market demand for small electric vehicles is huge this year. The sales volume of A00 electric vehicles reached 244,400, up 162% year-on-year, accounting for 53.35% of the total sales volume of new energy vehicles. From now until 2020, subsidies for new energy vehicles will gradually decline until they are cancelled, which may lead to a sharp decline in domestic sales of A-class vehicles.
As for buses, in the first ten months of this year, Yutong bus sales totaled 1. 1 10,000, ranking first. BYD has 8445 buses, ranking second. However, judging from the data given by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are no car companies with a monthly output of over 10,000, and they are all around several hundred.
Although new energy buses have been promoted and supported by policies before, the comprehensive cost of electric buses from procurement and operation is high, which leads to the slow electrification process of this industry. At present, new energy buses equipped with various new technologies are still in the inspection state, and there are no products with high economic benefits for urban public transportation, which is far from large-scale popularization and application.
At present, the staff of many sales outlets have used the subsidy to retreat as a big promotion reason, urging consumers to pick up their cars, and revealed that once the subsidy policy retreats, there may be no cars to sell early next year. As early as the beginning of this year, due to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, enterprises adjusted their business policies, and the sales of new energy vehicles declined, and even many dealers stopped picking up cars.
However, from the overall situation, the subsidy policy is conducive to eliminating some electric vehicle enterprises with poor quality and defrauding subsidies by policies, and encouraging the further development of new technologies in this field.
According to the original plan, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will account for 7% of the total car sales in 2020. If the annual sales volume is 30 million vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is about 265,438+10,000 vehicles. At present, more than 30 domestic enterprises have entered or will soon enter the field of new energy vehicles. If we follow this trend, it is estimated that the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 6.96 million in 2020, many of which are produced for subsidies.
In 20 15, Wuzhou Long Automobile Company obtained the relevant certificates of these vehicles because its senior executives forged seals, and defrauded 55.47 million yuan of subsidies, resulting in the failure to deliver the signed new energy vehicle sales contract as scheduled. In February this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology punished eight car companies, including SAIC Tangshan Bus Co., Ltd. and Jinhua Youth Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
At present, the main driving force of new energy vehicles in China is policy rather than consumption. In June this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China decreased by 6 1% year-on-year, because the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology rejected the subsidy requests of many electric vehicle brands after a series of fraudulent compensation incidents, resulting in the sales volume of many car companies in June 5438+ 10 was directly zero.
For car companies, the cancellation of subsidies will prompt them to extend the battery life of electric vehicles. However, due to the change of vehicle load, it is necessary to redesign the vehicle type, which will undoubtedly increase the cost. For electric vehicles, battery technology is the core. If the quality is good from the beginning, it is not difficult to change it, or even need to change it. On the contrary, if the technology is poor from the beginning, it is useless to change it again.
For the current electric vehicle market in China, it is extremely necessary to improve the entry threshold for car companies. Market-oriented industries are also inseparable from supervision. Although it is a bit sudden to reduce subsidies, in the long run, tightening subsidies is a more effective policy in order to avoid more defective products and greater waste of resources.