Why did Li choose this development model? Is this model suitable for it? Will Li Can continue to use this model successfully?
Before answering these questions, let's take a look at Li's current development.
A total of 6,500 vehicles were delivered in five months.
According to the data revealed by Li at the Spring Festival media communication meeting held on April 30, from February 20 19 to the end of April 2020, Li delivered more than 6,500 Li ONEs nationwide, including more than 2,600 in April. Except for 269 units delivered due to the COVID-19 epidemic in February this year, the delivery volume in the other three months exceeded 65,438+0,000 units.
In addition, it is worth noting that Li said that the delivery volume of Li ONE in March has surpassed that of Toyota Highlander in a city. It is understood that the city is located in the south of China, and it is friendly to plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Considering that Li ONE's competing products include not only new energy vehicles, but also traditional fuel vehicles, this transcendence is still symbolic. But it is not representative to surpass the traditional fuel SUV in a city.
Motor vehicle compulsory insurance data shows that by the end of the first quarter, the top five regions with the largest sales volume of Li Yi were Guangdong (9 1 1), Beijing (5 14), Shanghai (352), Zhejiang (346), Jiangsu (288) and Sichuan (27655). Sales in these ten regions account for 85% of its total national sales.
Compared with other start-up car companies, Li's delivery volume in the first five months was at a normal level. Weilai 20/kloc-0 officially delivered on June 28th, 2065438+065438+/kloc-0 delivered 7930 units from July to June. Weilai began to deliver on September 28th, 20 18, and the delivery volume of 20 18 to February 20th19 was 63 15 units. If we don't consider the adverse effects of the Spring Festival in 2020 and the epidemic, Li's delivery will be higher by the end of April this year.
It is worth noting that in March, the delivery volume of Li ONE surpassed that of BMW 5 Series for the first time, becoming the domestic sales champion of plug-in hybrid vehicles and ranking fifth in the luxury medium and large SUV market segment. In the first quarter, among all the start-up car companies, the sales volume of Li ONE also surpassed that of Tucki G3, Weimar EX5, Nezha N0 1 and other models, second only to Tesla Model 3 and Weilai ES6.
From the comparison of various dimensions, Li's performance in the early stage of delivery is still quite eye-catching. But the delivery volume in the next few months of this year is more important.
For start-up car companies, the amount of new orders accumulated in the pre-sale stage after delivery is more important, because the amount of orders accumulated in the pre-sale stage cannot truly reflect the market demand (Li ONE's two-hour pre-sale order once exceeded 40,000, but some orders were eventually cancelled and some have not yet been converted into official orders). Moreover, the early seed users of the new brand are relatively limited (Li Xiang 10000 is the upper limit). Therefore, only the normal order volume can truly reflect the market demand.
However, Li Xiang would not disclose the current order situation, but he said that among the 6,500 orders that have been delivered, there are both orders accumulated in the pre-sale stage and new orders. Because "during the COVID-19 epidemic, some customers canceled their reservations". Regarding the production capacity of Li ONE, Li Xiang said that the delivery volume and production capacity are compatible.
The after-sales network continues to expand.
In terms of retail network, by the end of April, Li had opened 15 retail centers in three cities nationwide. 1 In May, Li opened four retail centers in Shijiazhuang, Changsha, Ningbo and Jinan, totaling 19, covering 17 cities. In the third quarter of this year, the total number of retail centers in Li will increase to 30. By the end of 2020, Li's retail network will cover most provinces in China. In terms of after-sales service, Li's network has covered 25 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and it is expected to cover all provinces and cities except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan by July this year, and cover 65,438+000 cities nationwide by the end of the year.
Compared with other start-up car companies, Li's current sales network is small, which limits more customers to understand Li ONE, thus increasing the sales of this car.
By the end of March, Tesla had 98 experience and service centers in China, and Weilai had opened 87 stores nationwide, including 22 Weilai Center and 65 Weilai Space. Its sales network has covered 60 cities across the country. Xpeng Motors * * * has 166 outlets covering 57 cities.
Compared with Weimar, Li completely adopted the direct mode. This model can guarantee the service level to the greatest extent, but it requires higher capital reserves for car companies themselves. If the funds are insufficient, the speed of network expansion will be limited.
Only one car was sold in Li Yizhong for three years.
Li Xiang has previously publicly stated that in the next three years, Ideal will only sell this model of Li ONE, and will improve the quality level through continuous upgrading. "This is the essential difference between smart cars and traditional cars." .
Li alone is indeed constantly upgrading. On April 27th, the latest version of the software V 1. 1.9 was pushed to users through OTA, and the version V 1.2 will be pushed at the end of May. The V 1. 1.9 version of the software has adjusted the energy mode, added the "off-road" mode, optimized the use experience of the driver assistance system, added the cruising range display of WLTC and NEDC working conditions, and added the "hub view" function with 360-degree panoramic view. It also increased the available fuel to 44L, increased the in-vehicle version of WeChat, and improved the speed of waking up vehicles with mobile phone applications.
In terms of energy mode, the new modes are pure electricity priority and fuel priority, which are more clear and easy to understand, and also convenient for users to use (V 1.2 version will also add oil-electricity hybrid mode). At the same time, the new version will increase the cruising range display of WLTC and NEDC working conditions, and can choose to display the percentage of remaining power. Among them, the display mode of cruising range increase under WLTC is closer to the daily energy consumption of users.
In the use experience of the assisted driving system, the comfort of ACC full-speed adaptive cruise is optimized, with emphasis on improving the enthusiasm of following cars and the reaction speed of dealing with the merging of vehicles in front, improving the parking spot recognition rate and parking success rate of APA automatic parking function, and comprehensively improving the user experience of APA automatic parking function.
In terms of hardware, in view of some users' feedback that the seats are hard, Li will conduct professional seat hardness testing for the owners of vehicles off the assembly line on or before June 7, 2020, and replace the seats that exceed the new hardness standards for free. Suspension upgrades will also be carried out for vehicles that get off the assembly line on or before April 20, 2020, so as to optimize the damping characteristics of the rear suspension and improve the comfort of the second and third row passengers in the longitudinal impact of vehicles (through speed bumps and uneven roads).
Li No.1 exposed many product quality problems at the beginning of delivery, but Li had a good attitude towards the problems and put forward solutions in time. This is worthy of recognition.
No ONE will doubt that Li One will continue to upgrade, and the product quality and quality will get better and better to meet the needs of more people. But even so, the practice of selling only one car for three years is still a bit shocking. Both traditional car companies and start-ups hope to occupy as many different market segments as possible, generate more sales, and thus gain scale advantages. Few people believe that a car can conquer the world.
Some people may think that Li is very dedicated, but in my opinion, this is the best proof of Li's "snowballing mode mainly relying on self-transfusion", and it can also explain why he can achieve positive cash flow after the first product is delivered in April-May.
The other side of positive cash flow
If Li plans to launch the second model next year, even if it is still an SUV model on the same platform, his huge investment will make his cash flow unable to turn positive. Therefore, in my opinion, the secret of Li's positive cash flow is to strictly control various costs and expenses on the one hand, and to reduce investment on the other hand-even so, half of Li's funds are invested in factories, and less than 20% are invested in personnel and marketing.
There are many examples of Li's strict cost control, such as the rent per square meter of Beijing center in Li, and the total number of marketing, public relations and design departments is only 12. For another example, Li wants to require that any sales, service, shop opening, display and advertisement should have an explicable mathematical model, not where to do it.
Li Xiang also said in the interview that the company's economical atmosphere even affected suppliers. "Suppliers will not hack us when they see our savings, and the prices they give us are also quite good, including traditional car companies who will ask you how to get such a good price when they see the prices we take"?
Li Xiang said that the core index of Li's whole operation is how to obtain very good operating cash flow and make it develop healthily, rather than relying on a large number of external blood transfusions for development.
There is no doubt that saving is a virtue, but it may also be because of lack of money that we have to be cautious. As of August last year, the Series C financing of $530 million was completed, and the financing amount disclosed by Li was $654.38+57.5 million (about RMB 654.38+0.654.38+0.00 billion), which was equivalent to 654.38+0/4 of the total financing amount of Weilai.
The low total amount of Li financing is related to the market environment. In the past two years, it has become increasingly difficult for start-up electric vehicle enterprises in China to obtain investment. Even some local government investment funds are becoming more and more cautious. Except for a few head companies, almost no new forces got financing in 20 19. Li would like to admit that his C-round financing was also completed with the help of friends such as Mei Tuan Wang Xing and ByteDance Zhang Yiming.
At present, listing financing is not a good opportunity. On the one hand, Weilai's share price performance after listing in the US stock market is well known, and it can only reduce points for other China start-up car companies; On the other hand, Luckin Coffee's financial fraud makes it difficult for investors to recover from the crisis of confidence in China Stock Exchange in the short term.
Therefore, it is basically impossible to rely on external blood transfusion, and you can only survive by your own blood transfusion. However, in the case of poor hematopoietic capacity, we can only save costs and reduce investment, and make it bigger by snowballing.
Li's shareholder Wang Xing once said to Li Xiang, "You think 20 19 may be the worst year in the past, but it is very likely to be the best year in the next decade." For Li Lai, perhaps its "snowball mode mainly relying on self-transfusion" is not the best, but it may make it successfully through the next decade.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.