The opinion collection method, also known as the comprehensive judgment method of salespeople's opinions, is that salespeople who are familiar with the market situation of enterprises investigate all kinds of customers, fill in the survey opinions in cards or forms, and then the sales department makes a comprehensive summary to analyze and predict the sales trend of a product.
Expert judgment refers to the method of consulting relevant experts with professional knowledge and rich experience to judge and predict the future sales volume of a product. Include three types:
The expert personal opinion set method refers to soliciting the opinions of experts from all sides, asking them to make independent personal judgments on the future trend and current situation of a product sales in this enterprise, and then comprehensively determining the predicted value. This method can collect experts' opinions from different angles, and its accuracy is generally higher than that of the opinion collection method. However, due to the limited information held by different experts, it will also be one-sided.
Expert group method is a forecasting method that several expert forecasting groups judge and predict the future sales trend of a product of an enterprise, and then make a comprehensive summary. This method can give full play to the collective wisdom in the process of prediction, thus making the prediction results more accurate.
Delphi method is to solicit the opinions of several experts by letter. Each expert independently forecasts and analyzes the future sales volume of a product of the enterprise, and then the enterprise summarizes the forecast results of each expert and feeds them back to the experts anonymously, so that they can consult other people's opinions again to correct my original judgment. So many times, finally, the strengths of each family make a comprehensive forecast on sales volume.
2. Investigation and analysis methods. This forecasting method is to predict the sales trend of the products of this enterprise by investigating the supply and demand of a certain commodity in the market and the consumption orientation of consumers. The survey includes product survey, customer survey, economic development trend survey and industry survey.
3. Trend analysis method. Trend analysis is an enterprise's prediction of future sales trends based on historical sales data and certain calculation methods. This method is suitable for enterprises with stable product sales and regular sales changes. Trend analysis is an extended method to infer the future from historical data, so it is also called historical expansion method.
Trend analysis mainly includes the following specific methods: simple moving average method, moving average method, weighted moving average method, exponential smoothing method and seasonal prediction method.
Moving average method is an average method in which n data move forward continuously. By introducing more and more recent new data, it constantly modifies the average value to the predicted value, thus reflecting the changing trend of the numerical value. The weighted moving average method gives different weights according to the influence degree of data at different times in the same moving segment on the predicted value, and then carries out average moving to predict the future value.
Exponential smoothing method predicts the next period according to the actual value of the current period and the past forecast value of the current period, which reflects the influence of the recent actual sales value on the forecast value.
Seasonal forecasting method is suitable for selling products with obvious seasonality, and the sales of these products fluctuate greatly with the seasonal changes.
Exponential smoothing calculation formula:
The exponential smoothing coefficient A can be determined according to the historical sales situation. The greater the exponential smoothing coefficient, the greater the weight of the recent actual sales situation, and the greater the impact on the forecast.
4. Causality analysis method
In economic activities, various factors are often interrelated and influence each other, forming a certain corresponding relationship with each other. Product sales are generally always affected by various factors. Causal analysis is to find out the functional relationship between product sales and various related factors, and use this causal relationship to predict sales. This method often needs to establish a mathematical model of prediction, so it is also called regression analysis. Simple regression analysis and multiple regression analysis are commonly used.