The end of the year is approaching, and the negotiation curtain between foreign cathode copper producers and downstream customers and importers in China is about to open in 2007. This paper analyzes the annual contract negotiation of imported cathode copper.
As the largest copper producer in the world, Chile National Copper Company (CODELCO) provides contract premium for cathode copper in different parts of the world every year, which is an absolute benchmark. At present, CODELCO has successively announced that Europe 125 USD will rise by 20 USD; Compared with 2006; Korean dollar 1 15 is USD 3; Higher than in 2006; USD 1 15 in Japan, the same as in 2006; USD 1 15 in Taiwan Province Province is the same as that in 2006. Chinese mainland's premium is expected to be announced next week. It is rumored in the market that the premium in China market may rise sharply next year for the following reasons: First, the output of cathode copper will be in short supply in 2007; 2. Since the entry into force of the China-Chile Free Trade Agreement, China will enjoy a 2% exemption from import tariff on imports of Chilean cathode copper.
The premium level reported by CODELCO in the coming year basically reflects the current situation of global cathode copper market in 2006 and the expectation of market supply and demand in various regions in 2007. According to market rumors in China, the author thinks that there is no reason for China premium to rise in 2007. On the contrary, compared with the spot market of cathode copper in Europe and North China in 2006, the performance of the market in 2006 made China cathode copper consumers expect that the annual contract premium in 2007 should be greatly reduced. The main reasons are:
1. Since 2005 and 2006, the premium of the annual contract for importing cathode copper in China is much higher than the spot in that year. In addition, the price comparison between Shanghai and LME market is seriously distorted, and domestic cathode copper importers suffer huge losses, and some customers even have to cancel the implementation of some annual contracts.
2. In terms of domestic supply, China's cathode copper output increased in an all-round way in 2006, and it is expected to reach 2.9 million tons in the whole year, up by 12.4% year-on-year. The growth of cathode copper production in China is based on the following raw material supply conditions:
1. The quantity of imported copper concentrate decreased by 7% (1~ September 2006);
2. Imported anode copper/crude copper decreased by 26.9% (1~ September 2006).
It is reasonable to believe that the increase of copper concentrate and waste copper in China has provided an important guarantee for the increase of cathode copper production in China. According to the latest forecast data, the self-produced copper concentrate in China in 2006 is expected to reach 950,000 tons (copper metal), up by 27% year-on-year; The recovery of copper scrap is expected to reach more than 800,000 tons (metal amount).
However, the import of scrap copper continued to increase (the import decreased slightly in the first nine months, but it began to increase again in June of 5438+ 10. The total import volume in 2006 is expected to exceed 4.8 million tons in the previous year, which provides a strong raw material guarantee for copper consumption, especially copper production in China. The copper content of imported waste copper in 2006 is expected to exceed 6,543,800+500,000 tons. The above situation will not change much in 2007.
In 2007, China began to cancel the processing trade of imported copper concentrate, that is, to cancel the trade mode of processing imported copper concentrate and exporting cathode copper. At the same time, an export tariff of 15% is levied on the general export of cathode copper. Therefore, it is almost impossible for China to export cathode copper in 2007, and more domestic cathode copper will only remain for domestic consumption.
Three. Analysis on the current situation of electrolytic copper import in China in 2006;
By the end of September, China imported 596,667 tons of cathode copper, down by 4 1.7%, and exported 228,253 tons of cathode copper, up by 233.3%. The net import of cathode copper is only 368,465,438+04 tons. In 2006, general trade accounted for 15% and processing trade accounted for 15% of all cathode copper imports. Therefore, even if Chile's copper imports can be exempted from 2% import tariff in 2007, according to the actual import situation in 2006, the number of imports that can enjoy tariff exemption is limited (only general trade imports can be exempted), and more than half of the imports are processing trade imports from downstream factories, so there is no need to enjoy tariff exemption at all. As early as June 5438+ 10, 2005, Zambia imported electric copper and enjoyed 2% tariff exemption. However, the amount of copper imported by Zambia has not increased much in the past two years. On the contrary, from June 5 to September 2006, Zambia's imports of electric copper decreased by 69% compared with the same period in 2005.
4. If Chilean copper producers unilaterally raise the premium level, copper smelters in neighboring countries of China will have the opportunity to expand their exports to China. Japanese, Korean, Indian, Kazakh and other neighboring countries will gain a more favorable competitive position than Chilean copper producers, and they will get contracts from importers of processing trade in China more easily. In addition, the current inventory of LME warehouse is mainly concentrated in Asia, so it is easy for China consumers to pick up goods from nearby warehouses to supplement their supply.
To sum up, it is reasonable for the annual contract premium of imported electrolytic copper in China market in 2007 to drop to the level equivalent to the spot premium in 2006.
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On February 2, Shanghai copper futures opened sharply lower, fluctuated higher and closed slightly lower across the board. The main copper futures contract 704 opened at 52,090 yuan/ton and closed at 52,380 yuan/ton, down by 800 yuan/ton; Spot 702 contract closed at 54,650 yuan/ton, down by 390 yuan/ton.
The following is the domestic metal market daily on February 2:
1. Metal futures of Shanghai Futures Exchange closed on February 2:
On Friday, February 2nd, the main copper contract 704 of Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened at 52,090 yuan/ton and closed at 52,380 yuan/ton, down by 800 yuan/ton. Spot 702 contract closed at 54,650 yuan/ton, down by 390 yuan/ton.
The main aluminum 704 contract opened at 19540 yuan/ton and closed at 195 10 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton; The spot 702 contract closed at 19990 yuan/ton, up by 90 yuan/ton.
Second, the domestic metal spot market:
The following is the spot market quotation of non-ferrous metals in Shanghai Huatong Platinum and Silver Exchange Market on February 2nd: RMB/ton.
Serial number commodity name specification opening price range closing price warehouse origin
1 cathode copper standard 54900 54700-54900 54900 produced and imported in Shanghai.
2 99.85% aluminum ingots are produced in Shanghai and Wuxi.
3 aluminum ingots 99.7% 20100 20080-20100 20100 produced in Shanghai and Wuxi.
4 lead ingots1#1425014150-1435014250 made in Shanghai and Wuxi.
5 Zinc ingot 0# 30900 30800-33500 30900 Made in Shanghai
6 zinc ingot 1# 30750 30700-30800 30750 Made in Shanghai
No.7 iron sheet1# 92500 91500-94000 92500 Made in Shanghai
8 Nickel1# 350000 347000-350000 350000 imported from Shanghai.
The following is the spot market quotation of Guangdong metal on February 2nd: RMB/ton.
Serial number product name delivery date lowest price highest price rise and fall origin
1 A00 aluminum ingot spot 20330 20470+ 180 domestic sales.
2 0# zinc ingot spot 3110031300-Shaoye
The quotation of 3 0# zinc ingot manufacturer is 3 1050 3 1250- chihong.
4 0# zinc ingot spot 30450 30850- 100 domestic
5 1# zinc ingot spot 30350 30750- 100 domestic
6 1# electrolytic nickel spot 350000 350000- Jinchuan
7 1# electrolytic copper spot 54900 55200-700 made in China
8 1# lead spot1395014150 domestic
9 1# electrolytic cobalt spot 380000 385000- Jinchuan
10 1# Tin spot 89500 9 1500 domestic
1 1 magnesium ingot in stock 15300 15500- domestic
12 bismuth ingot in stock 124000 126000- domestic
13 1# bright copper wire spot 52500 52700-700 domestic.
Third, the fundamental news:
In 2006, copper stocks fell to a critical level, when the delay in copper supply forced many users to stop production or reduce production. The current drop in copper prices will stimulate China copper enterprises to rebuild their stocks in 2007.
China Aluminum said that the price increase was due to the consideration that the spot quotation was in line with peers. Analysts believe that Chinalco's move will have a negative impact on many spot electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the short term. However, the overall downward trend of alumina prices has not changed under the circumstances of little change in alumina demand and continuous expansion of production capacity.
In 2006, the price of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry in Shaanxi Province increased by 52.8% year-on-year, and the price of non-ferrous metal processing products increased by 35.4%.
In 2006, the total output of recycled nonferrous metals in China reached 4.53 million tons, an increase of 2 1% compared with 2005. Among them, 390,000 tons of recycled lead and zinc 1 1 10,000 tons increased by 39% and 29% respectively compared with 2005.
On June 1, the European Commission approved the tripartite merger of Rusal, Ural Aluminum Group and Swiss Glencore International Company. The Committee said that this transaction will not have a great impact on competition. The combined company will be named Rusal United, which will replace Alcoa as the world's largest aluminum producer.
Standard Bank predicts that LME copper futures prices will be sideways at least before the Spring Festival holiday, and are expected to rise in the second quarter.
CAT-Gold, a subsidiary of Imperial Metals Canada, will raise its offer for bcMetals from C $ 1.3 to C $ 1.5 per share.
European Nickel Company announced that its pre-tax loss in fiscal year 2005/06 increased from 665.438 billion pounds in the same period of the previous fiscal year to 965.438 billion pounds, and its Caldag nickel mine project in Turkey was postponed.
The transformation plan of Ilo copper plant of Peru Southern Copper Company has been completed, and the estimated copper output in 2007 is about 700,000 metric tons.
LME nickel futures 1 once fell by 3% and finally closed at $35,900/ton, because the sudbury nickel mine in Xstrata finally escaped the strike.
Sumitomo Metal Minerals predicts that the global nickel supply will be less than 12000 tons in 2007. Due to the huge demand in Asia, the sales volume in 2007 is planned to increase by 10000 tons, reaching1370,000 tons.
Prokhorov, a partner of Russian Gerros Company, will resell his shares in Nuoni Company to another partner, potanin, in 2007, and he will acquire all the energy assets in the joint venture company by himself, but he will continue to be the general manager of Nuoni until the end of 2007.
Cudeco Australia has negotiated with Xstrata Switzerland to sell its Rocklands copper mine project in Queensland, Australia.
The strike of nickel mines in New Caledonia resulted in the loss of nearly 6,000 tons of nickel production in 2006, and it is expected that the output will decrease by 1000 tons in 2007.
Barclays said that LME copper prices may rise to the resistance level of $5,900 again before falling. If it falls to $5,400, it will trigger a new round of selling, with a target of $5,000 and then $4,600.
Australian Alumina Company indicated that the price of alumina and aluminum in 2007 will be driven by the demand in China.
The hydrometallurgy plant of Gibraltar Mine under Taseko Mining Company of Canada reopened, and the first batch of cathode copper with purity of 99.9% was put into production on June 26th, 65438.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that LME copper prices may consolidate at the current level before the Spring Festival in China, and then copper prices will rise in the second quarter.
Rio Tinto's $2 billion La Sampara nickel mine project in Indonesia may run aground because the Indonesian government intends to adjust the current mining license system.
Due to the high electricity price in 2006, New Zealand aluminum smelters were forced to cut production, resulting in a decrease of $70 million in revenue in 2006.