Killing all hosts is not good for viruses, so a virus is unlikely to destroy the whole human race, but it may lead to serious retrogression for a long time. We will never have a complete solution to deal with nature: nature is the ultimate bioterrorist. "
The possibility of a deadly virus in the next 70 years: very high.
Risk factor: 3
Four. terrorism
Professor Paul Wilkinson, Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Research Center on Terrorism and Political Violence at St Andrews University, said:
"Contemporary society is increasingly vulnerable to terrorist attacks, because organizations with ulterior motives are more likely to master the materials, technologies and professional knowledge necessary for manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. At present, chemical or biological weapons are the most likely large-scale terrorist acts that cause heavy casualties. The widespread spread of anthrax and smallpox will have a great impact, and modern transportation will soon make it an international problem.
In an open society, everyone attaches importance to freedom of movement, and we can't guarantee that we can stop terrorist attacks. In our lifetime, the possibility of a major terrorist attack somewhere in the world is very high. "
The possibility of a major terrorist attack in the next 70 years: very high.
Risk factor: 2
Verb (abbreviation for verb) nuclear war
Lord Garden, a spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, said:
"In theory, nuclear war may destroy human civilization; But I think this danger has passed. Today, nuclear war has three possible flashpoints: the Middle East, India, Pakistan and North Korea. I tend to think that the obstacles to the use of nuclear weapons are still high, because we have established an international system to control the use of nuclear weapons. Although the possibility of fanatical extremists using nuclear weapons still exists, the possibility of global nuclear war is very small. "
The possibility of global nuclear war in the next 70 years: low
Risk factor: 8
Six, meteorite impact
Donald yeomans, director of the Near-Earth Object Program Office of NASA, said:
"For a long time, you died of a near-earth object hitting Xinhuanet. News: The Guardian recently published 10 scientists' predictions about the dangers facing the earth and its harm to human beings:
I. Climate change
Nick Brooks, a senior researcher at the Tingdahl Center for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, said:
"By the end of this century, the concentration of greenhouse gases may double, and the global average temperature will rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius. This will be the highest temperature experienced by the earth in 654.38+0.5 million years. If you prepare for the worst, it may completely change the climate in many parts of the world, which may lead to the instability of the global food supply and the focus of the existing social system today:
Total collapse. As some parts of the world become uninhabitable, there may be large-scale population migration and the competition for resources will intensify. I don't think climate change will ring the death knell for mankind, but it undoubtedly has the power to cause disaster. "
Possibility of temperature rising above 2 degrees Celsius in the next 70 years;
Risk factor: 6
Second, telomere loss.
Reinhard Stindel, M.D., of the University of Vienna, said that each species has its own "evolutionary clock", which ticks in the process of species generation replacement and counts down to inevitable extinction:
"Every animal has a protective layer at the end of its chromosome, called telomere. Without them, our chromosomes will become unstable. Every time a cell divides, it can't completely copy these telomeres, so in our life, telomeres will get shorter and shorter with cell division. Eventually, when its length reaches a critical point, we begin to have age-related diseases, such as cancer, Alzheimer's disease, heart disease and stroke. However, telomeres don't just shorten in a person's life. My theory is that telomere length will be slightly lost in each generation, just like the aging process of individuals. After thousands of generations, telomeres also lost their critical level. At this time, we will find that the onset of age-related diseases is advanced, which eventually leads to a sharp decline in population. Telomere loss can explain why seemingly successful species, such as Neanderthals, disappeared without external factors. "
The possibility of population decline due to telomere loss in the next 70 years: low.
Risk factor: 8
Third, the virus
Professor Maria Sambon, director of the Influenza Laboratory of the Health Protection Bureau and a virologist, said:
"In the last century, mankind experienced four major influenza outbreaks, in addition to AIDS and SARS.
The popularity of. Every century, there will be a serious epidemic around the world, and it will be inevitable in the future. At present, the most worrying thing is the outbreak of bird flu in Southeast Asia. If the virus learns to spread from person to person, it will soon spread all over the world. 19 18 The flu killed 20 million people in only 1 year, more than the victims of the First World War.
Killing all hosts is not good for viruses, so a virus is unlikely to destroy the whole human race, but it may lead to serious retrogression for a long time. We will never have a complete solution to deal with nature: self-improvement.
However, it is the ultimate bioterrorist. "
The possibility of a deadly virus in the next 70 years: very high.
Risk factor: 3
Four. terrorism
Professor Paul Wilkinson, Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Research Center on Terrorism and Political Violence at St Andrews University, said:
"Contemporary society is increasingly vulnerable to terrorist attacks, because organizations with ulterior motives are more likely to master the materials, technologies and professional knowledge necessary for manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. At present, chemical or biological weapons are the most likely large-scale terrorist acts that cause heavy casualties. The widespread spread of anthrax and smallpox will have a great impact, and modern transportation will soon make it an international problem.
In an open society, everyone attaches importance to freedom of movement, and we can't guarantee that we can stop terrorist attacks. In our lifetime, the possibility of a major terrorist attack somewhere in the world is very high. "
The possibility of a major terrorist attack in the next 70 years: very high.
Risk factor: 2
Verb (abbreviation for verb) nuclear war
Lord Garden, a spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, said:
"In theory, nuclear war may destroy human civilization; But I think this danger has passed. Today, nuclear war has three possible flashpoints: the Middle East, India, Pakistan and North Korea. I tend to think that the obstacles to the use of nuclear weapons are still high, because we have established an international system to control the use of nuclear weapons. Although the possibility of fanatical extremists using nuclear weapons still exists, the possibility of global nuclear war is very small. "
The possibility of global nuclear war in the next 70 years: low
Risk factor: 8
Six, meteorite impact
Donald yeomans, director of the Near-Earth Object Program Office of NASA, said:
"For a long time, you died of a near-earth object collision.
The risk of hitting is almost as great as the risk of dying in a plane crash. To cause a serious retrogression of human civilization, the diameter of the impact object needs to reach 1.5km or more. We predict that this kind of event will happen once a million years on average.
The danger of this large impactor is that it will raise a lot of dust in the atmosphere and block the sun for several weeks, thus affecting the survival of plants and crops. The splash of lava will lead to global fire and serious acid rain. These are relatively short-term effects, so the most adaptable species (such as cockroaches and humans) are likely to survive. "
Today's focus of the earth in the next 70 years:
Possibility of being hit by a large meteorite: medium
Risk factor: 5
Seven, the robot is anti-customer.
Professor Hans Moravec from the Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University said:
"The complexity of robot controllers will double every year or two. They are now second only to vertebrates in complexity, but they should catch up with humans within 50 years. I predict that by 2050, there will be robots with human intelligence, and they will have the ability of abstraction and generalization. These intelligent machines will learn from human beings, learn our skills and share our goals and values. They can be considered as the products of human thought. These robots will not only take care of our daily life, but also complete complex tasks that still need human intervention, such as diagnosing diseases and prescribing. They will become our heirs and provide the most promising opportunity for human beings to live forever: to input human thoughts into advanced robots.
Possibility of high IQ robots in the next 70 years: high
Risk factor: 8
Eight, cosmic rays
Neil Xavier, a senior lecturer in physics at Hebrew University, said:
"Every once in a while, there will be large stars in our galaxy that explode due to fuel exhaustion. This is called a supernova explosion. Cosmic rays (high-energy particles like gamma rays) will shoot in all directions, and if the earth happens to be within its coverage, these rays may make it enter the ice age. If the earth already has a cold climate, another cosmic ray burst will aggravate the cold and may lead to the extinction of many species. When the earth passes through a spiral arm of the Milky Way, the area where supernova explosions occur most frequently, it faces the greatest risk. This period is about 65.438+0.5 billion years. Geological and climatic indicators show that there is a cold period on the earth in the corresponding period, and the amount of ice at the poles increases, while
There were many ice ages. The earth is now almost out of Sagittarius, the constellation of the Milky Way, and should experience a warmer climate in the next few million years. But in about 60 million years, we will enter the spiral arm of Perseus, and the cold climate is likely to dominate the earth. "
Probability of encountering a supernova explosion in the next 70 years: low
Risk factor: 4
Nine, super volcano
Professor Bill mcguire, Chairman of Benfeld Disaster Research Center of University College London, said:
"About every 50,000 years, the earth will experience a super volcanic eruption. There will be more than 1000 square kilometers of land.
Today's focus:
The ashes are submerged, the surrounding continent is covered with volcanic ash, and the atmosphere is full of sulfur vapor, which will prevent the sun from shining in the next few years. The day becomes like a moonlit night. The harm of super volcano to the world depends on its location and the time that gas stays in the atmosphere. The most harmful super volcanic eruption in human history is the Doba volcano in Indonesia, which erupted 74,000 years ago. Because it is close to the equator, the gas it spews quickly enters the northern and southern hemispheres. The ice core data shows that the temperature dropped sharply in the next five or six years, and there was also freezing in the tropics.
The probability of a super volcano erupting is 12 times that of being hit by a large meteorite. The probability of occurrence in our lifetime is 0. 15%. Now we should pay attention to volcanoes that have erupted in the past, such as Yellowstone volcano in the United States and Doba volcano in Indonesia. But what is more worrying is that super volcanoes may also appear from places where volcanoes have never erupted, such as under the Amazon rainforest. "
The possibility of super volcano eruption in the next 70 years: very high.
Risk factor: 7
Black hole
Richard wilson, a professor of physics at Harvard University, said:
"About seven years ago, when the relativistic heavy ion collider was built at Brookhaven National Laboratory in new york, some people worried that it would create an unprecedented state of material density. At that time, it was the largest collider developed by human beings, which could make gold ions collide violently. The danger of this is that it may form a high-density region similar to a black hole state and absorb foreign substances. Will Brookhaven Laboratory be sucked into the black hole made by this new collider? Based on the current knowledge of black holes in outer space, we calculated and verified whether Brookhaven's particle accelerator can form such black holes. Now we can say with certainty that this state will not occur in the Brookhaven experiment, and the earth will not be swallowed up when these particles collide. "
The possibility that the earth will be swallowed up by black holes in the next 70 years: extremely low.