Enterprise decision-making is related to the number of benefits, which is very exciting. Where there is excitement, there is risk. It's like a ship trying to cross the ocean. The farther it sails, the greater the harvest and the greater the wind and waves it experiences.
Shi Guangfu, a famous Japanese management scientist and former general manager of Toshiba Electric Company, said: "The risk is directly proportional to the income. If the risk is small, many people will pursue this opportunity, so the income will not be great. If the risk is high, many people will flinch, so the benefits will be even greater. In this sense, there are risks to gain. It can be said that interest is the corresponding compensation for the risks people bear. " That's true. The more you want to make a decision with great effect, the greater the so-called risk.
Onassis, the world-famous Greek ship king, was once a poor boy living in Buenos Aires. But his risky decision pushed his career to the top. 1929 the world economic crisis pushed Argentina's economy into the abyss: factories closed down, workers lost their jobs, and all walks of life were depressed. Shipping is also doomed. Onassis learned that Canadian Railways would auction the industry to tide over the crisis. Six cargo ships, which were worth $20,000 20 10 years ago, are only auctioned for $20,000 each. He soon went to Canada to discuss business. His unusual behavior stunned his peers. At that time, the shipping industry was in an unprecedented depression, and the annual freight volume of193/kloc-0 was only 35% of that of 1928. Experienced shippers are afraid to avoid it, but onassis's investment in shipping in this case is tantamount to throwing money into the sea in vain. Many people advised him, while others thought he was crazy. Onassis believes that the complexity and upsurge of the economy will eventually replace the current depression. If we can take the opportunity to buy these boats, we will certainly make considerable profits. Guided by this belief, onassis bought those boats at the risk of penniless. Sure enough, as he expected, the magical opportunity finally came. After the economic crisis, the recovery and revitalization of the shipping industry ranked first among all industries, and the value of those ships purchased by onassis from Canada soared overnight. He became the overlord of the sea, and his assets doubled. 1945 entered the ranks of Greek shipping giants and became a generation of ship kings. His success lies in his daring to take risks and his courage and knowledge.
"I bought the company at the funeral and sold it at the wedding. This is my decision. " This is the management of a famous entrepreneur that we will mention below. What does this mean?
Risks exist objectively. Generally speaking, the possible benefits of a decision are in direct proportion to the risks taken by the decision. So when making decisions, we should weigh the benefits and risks seriously, carefully and scientifically. Of course, it is the most ideal choice, with great benefits and no risk, but unfortunately, there is no such choice in real economic activities. Of course, although the benefits are great, the risks are even greater, which exceeds the allowable and tolerable scope of subjective and objective conditions. This decision is not enough. The risk is small, but the income is also small, which is also not a good decision. It is a valuable decision to estimate that the risk is within the scope permitted by subjective and objective conditions.
1982 was a year of serious decline in American steel industry, and the output ratio 198 1 decreased by more than 40%. 1982 in the first nine months, the total losses of the seven major steel companies in the United States amounted to $65,438.02 billion, about $65,438.06 billion for the whole year. Bethlehem Steel Company, the seventh largest steel company in the world, had to announce the permanent closure of two branches at the end of the year due to serious losses, resulting in the unemployment of nearly 10,000 workers. A more serious disaster than Bethlehem Iron and Steel Company befalls Macross Iron and Steel Company, which is ranked 1 1 by American steel companies. After making every effort to save the failure, Macross Iron and Steel Plant made plans to announce the closure in June 1982 and June 10. Just as the steel plant was about to close down and 40 thousand workers were facing unemployment, Tan Zhongying, who made a fortune in Chicago, bought the steel plant.
After Tan Zhongying established his first steel company in 1964, he successively acquired several bankrupt companies, and his career developed rapidly. By 198 1, he has owned more than 20 enterprises in the United States. His way of doing business is to buy the company at the funeral and sell it at the wedding. This is his decision. Many people find it incredible that he spent a lot of money to buy a dying factory with dying patients. Others called his appalling behavior "risky gambling". Tan Zhongying usually works very hard and does not give interviews to the press. People know very little about him. But in any case, Tan Zhongying developed from a salesman to an entrepreneur with assets of more than $654.38 billion through this "adventure" way. This is the price and reward of his "adventure".
Every entrepreneur in today's world must face risks. In a sense, competition is risk and management is risk. There are risks in deciding to start production, and there are risks in deciding to switch production. There are risks in buying and selling goods. In real economic activities, there is no business that does not take risks. Relevant data show that the success rate of new product innovation is generally only about 30%, and this 30% refers to new products that are accepted by users and therefore worth taking risks and profits for enterprises.
So, as a decision-maker, how to deal with the relationship between risk and return?
1. Dare to be "positive"
In Japanese business circles, people call courageous and knowledgeable people "positive reactions". People who "respond positively" are firm and indomitable. They are like a powerful "reaction" device, turning all the "negative numbers" encountered in fate into "positive numbers" and becoming the driving force for progress. Such people dare to take risks and stand the hardships and setbacks of adversity. It is this precious spirit that entrepreneurs should have, turning mistakes into enlightenment to the right and turning failure into a bridge to victory.
If you want to be an excellent entrepreneur, please remember such a famous saying: If you pursue perfection blindly, you will miss the opportunity. Even if you have a 100% chance, you can only get 50 points if you look around. Even if it is a 60-point chance, if you act decisively and make bold decisions, you may get 80 points.
Step 2 Prepare more "tips"
In the case of taking huge risks, even if the decisions made by entrepreneurs are well thought out and seemingly foolproof, it is difficult to predict and avoid some accidental and random influencing factors in the process of plan implementation. So don't engage in "one-shot business", but prepare more plans to prevent accidents and emergencies. The world-famous Apollo flight to the moon has 13 opportunities for adjustment and correction. In case of failure, other schemes can be adopted.
In the west, people call the decision with only one "scheme" "Hobson choice". There is an allusion here. 163 1 year, there was a businessman named Hobson in Cambridge, England. When selling horses, he said that customers can choose at will, but only the one near the door is allowed. In this way, the prerequisite he stipulated in advance is actually equal to not letting the election.
3. Be good at turning things around
If an entrepreneur just makes a risky decision with the idea of giving it a try, nine times out of ten he will fail. Put all your eggs in one basket, take risks and other actions, although there are great risks, but as a party, we must have a little hope and make great efforts. Even if you can't achieve satisfactory results, you should minimize the losses.
There are generally three situations to take risks: first, known factors; The other is an unknown factor that can be inferred from known factors; The other is the lack of unknown factors that cannot be mastered by known conditions. Faced with this situation, in order to obtain the maximum success insurance coefficient, the more feasible way is to adopt the "Rand method". Rand is the founder of Boralloyd, whose company has annual sales of $2 billion. He believes that neither the intuition of the manager in charge of distribution nor the initial reaction of the public is a reliable standard to measure the value of products. In many cases, the best way to judge whether something is worth studying is to produce it, put it on the market, wait a few years, and then judge whether it is worth studying.
If the risks are not there, where will the benefits come from? Decisions come from risks. Schumpeter, an American economist, said: "Entrepreneurs can foresee new investment fields or new profit opportunities, dare to take risks and dare to invest, so as to seek additional income. Entrepreneurs are not speculators, but pioneering talents who are brave in innovation, adventure and accumulation. "
It can be seen that "adventure" is inseparable from entrepreneurs, because the original meaning of the word "entrepreneur" contains risks, and entrepreneurs cannot make profits without innovation, because the world of innovation is bound to be an unknown world, and the unknown will inevitably bring some uncertainty, which means risk. The reality is often like this: big profits and big risks. For an entrepreneur, you can't achieve great things without taking a little adventure. Only in this challenging management can entrepreneurs show their heroic qualities. In the eyes of real entrepreneurs, adventure is the freshest stimulus. From deciding to start a business to upgrading products.
Personnel transfer is a kind of risk, which injects new vitality into enterprises in the risk. Of course, adventure is not gambling. Langsdon, an American entrepreneur and doctor of management, said: "Adventure is a cheap calculation, not daring."
Try to survive, but never take risks.
When it comes to the word decision-making, many people around us who have just made a windfall grin: "What decision is so mysterious, is it just luck?" If you are lucky, you can hold a gold ingot when you fall, and if you are unlucky, you can drink water. "So, many people think that the quality of the decision-making result is simply an unclear thing, and the key depends on luck; With luck, your decision may bring a lot of money; If you are unlucky, your decision may fail. Therefore, some people are always willing to sacrifice their own blood, engage in relationships everywhere, go on, ask God to worship Bodhisattva, and seek good luck for themselves. In fact, this is ridiculous. It was brought by luck, and finally it was taken away by luck. " Such examples abound around us.
Is there such a thing as luck? Not only there is, but also there must be. But after all, it can only bring you benefits when you decide what to do.
Everything is risky, and making decisions is no exception, but this is not a lottery. Whether we can win or not depends on fate. Company decisions are made and carried out by people, not by God. To talk about luck in everything is to underestimate your decision-making ability. Any manager who takes decision-making as an opportunity can imagine his own ability and accomplishment, not to mention analysis. I'm afraid even a little complicated addition, subtraction, multiplication and division will make him "confused"!
On the other hand, even if making a decision is a bet, then at least you have to be a gambler with some gambling skills, or at least you can make a big win and a small loss bet. Here's an example:
There is a company dealing in rubber products in the south. In order to get their products on the market quickly, the marketing director thinks that in order to promote the products of enterprises quickly and occupy the market, they must be promoted in some places with good feng shui first, so as to make a fortune. Unexpectedly, the fact is just the opposite of what they said, because this marketing strategy lacks scientific basis and is just an opportunity. Opportunity marketing can't last for a long time, which is a fact and doesn't need to be demonstrated. Soon, the business leaders replaced the marketing director with a young man who dared to make bold decisions and knew how to manage. He immediately made marketing decisions including advertising, promotion and feedback. As a result, in less than 1 year, he created a profit of tens of millions of yuan for the enterprise.
In other words, decision-making is a manifestation of the sense of responsibility and courage of business leaders-brave people die and timid people starve to death. If you have no sense of responsibility for the enterprise or dare not make a decision, then any decision is dispensable. Chance may make a decision successful, but there is no guarantee that it will succeed next time.