1 group data: GDP and CPI
What we advocate is real investment, that is, we must invest in assets that will continue to grow more value, such as stocks and bonds. In essence, the most important source of value growth of all investment targets is economic growth. So what we need to pay attention to all the time is the data of economic growth rate, that is, GDP growth rate, referred to as GDP. The GDP data we usually see can be divided into two categories:
One is the quarterly GDP growth rate, for example, the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 20 18 is 6.8%, which means that the GDP in the fourth quarter of 20 18 is 6.8% higher than that in the fourth quarter of 20 17.
The other is the annual GDP growth rate. For example, the GDP growth rate in 20 18 is 6.6%, which means that the GDP in 20 18 is 6.6% higher than that in 20 17.
For the growth rate of GDP, we should not only know the absolute value, but also understand the changing trend of GDP.
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We can see that the GDP growth rate has been declining since 20 10, from around 12% to below 7%, and the GDP growth rate in 20 16 years is 6.7%. If GDP growth can remain above 6.5% in the future, it is good data. In the past few years, GDP showed a downward trend, and the mood and valuation of the whole stock market were pessimistic, because no one knew when it would fall. Once GDP stabilizes, the overall valuation of the stock market will gradually return to normal, and the stock market will operate more smoothly.
Well, at this point, GDP is over. Let's go on to say CPI.
For the economy, the state is not laissez-faire. The most important department to realize national economic regulation is the central bank of China, namely the People's Bank of China.
Central banks around the world generally have two responsibilities, the first is to control prices and the second is to promote economic growth. When these two tasks conflict, they tend to focus on regulating prices. Therefore, if we want to understand economic growth, we must understand the data related to price. This is the second indicator we want to talk about, which is called CPI growth rate, or CPI for short. The Chinese scientific name is consumer price index, which is the most important 1 index reflecting inflation.
This CPI, like GDP, is also published by the National Bureau of Statistics. However, GDP data is published quarterly and CPI data is published monthly.
Speaking of which, what should CPI data look like?
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Ok, speaking of which, our CPI is over. Like GDP, it is a relatively macro indicator. Through them, you can have a simple and direct judgment on the current economic situation. However, if you want to use them well, you need to study more. Here, I will give you a simple example to illustrate their usage.
The rise and fall of GDP and CPI can reflect four different economic cycles, namely:
? The period of GDP and CPI falling together;
? The recovery period of GDP rising and CPI falling;
? The overheating period of GDP and CPI rising together;
? The stagflation period of GDP decline and CPI rise.
These four cycles will appear alternately like spring, summer, autumn and winter. The pointer of economy will turn clockwise along these four cycles, just like a clock. Therefore, this investment theory is also called Merrill Lynch clock theory.
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When we invest, if we can judge the general direction through these indicators. Then in every cycle, we will follow the trend and constantly adjust our asset allocation framework, then we can make more money. But because this part is more complicated, I won't go into details here. I will explain the specific judgment of investment cycle and asset allocation strategy to you later.
Then, let's talk about the second set of indicators, that is, the profitability and valuation level of bond yield to maturity and stock index mentioned earlier. They will be more closely related to investment.
As we said before, the most important data for investing in bonds is the yield to maturity of bonds, because it can represent the interest of bonds. According to a large number of statistics, we find that the bond market has the same ups and downs, and the bond variety held by bond funds is three-year AA+ corporate bonds. Therefore, we believe that the future rise and fall of the bond market can be judged by the "yield to maturity" situation of 3-year AA+ corporate bonds.
What do you think? At that time, we said that when its "yield to maturity" is higher than 5%, the risk will be relatively low, and it is basically safe to buy bond funds. When will it be sold? That is, when the "yield to maturity" drops below 4%, you can choose to sell it.
We know that bonds are relatively simple, and we can basically judge them by one indicator. However, for stocks, it is more complicated. Generally speaking, when we invest in the stock market, we mainly look at two indicators, namely, the profit growth rate and valuation level of the stock, which represent the endogenous income and external value of the stock.
There are about 3,000 stocks in the whole A-share market, and it is difficult for even professional investors to track the relevant data of each stock. So it is necessary for us to understand the changes in the stock market through some representative data. This data is the stock index. There are three commonly used stock indexes, namely SSE 50 Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index.
The SSE 50 index is simply composed of the stocks of the 50 listed companies with the largest market value in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is called the super-market index by Jianghu people.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index consists of the stocks of 300 listed companies with the largest market value in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Therefore, it can be said that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index can better reflect the situation of mature companies in the A-share market, and it is also the index that can best represent the China stock market, and is called the "barometer" of the trend of the A-share market.
What about the third CSI 500 index? It consists of 500 stocks with the largest market value except the 300 stocks included in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. You can simply understand that we have arranged the stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets according to market value. Among the top 800 stocks, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index swept the top 300 stocks, and the CSI 500 Index swept the remaining 500 stocks. Therefore, we can simply regard the CSI 500 Index as a collection of small and medium-sized companies.
Usually, when we invest in stock funds, what we need to pay most attention to is the situation of these three indexes.
For their profit growth, we say that the trend is more important than the absolute value. Therefore, we can generally judge the profit growth trend of stock index through the change of GDP.
So, how to judge the price-earnings ratio? In view of this problem, my research team and I have summarized a simple standard for everyone after a lot of statistical analysis:
For the SSE 50 index, it is reasonable when its P/E ratio is 1 1- 13 times.
For the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, it is reasonable when its P/E ratio is 12- 15 times.
For the CSI 500 index, it is reasonable when its P/E ratio is 25-30 times.
What does this mean? In other words, when one day you find that the P/E ratio of these indexes is lower than the reasonable range calculated by us, then you can buy boldly with confidence, and the more you fall, the more you buy, because it will rise back one day;
If you find that its P/E ratio has reached our reasonable range, you can choose to hold the stock assets in your hand and wait and see;
If the P/E ratio of these indexes is higher than our reasonable range, then you can consider whether to sell them to make money.
Ok, that's all for today's class. Let me give you a brief summary.
The data in the financial market is complicated, so you only need to pay attention to two sets of key data:
The first is GDP and CPI, which can help you describe the general situation of the macro economy.
We say that if GDP can be stabilized above 6.5% in the future, it will be good data, and CPI will remain at 1%-3%, which will be a healthy level. These two figures are published by the National Bureau of Statistics, with GDP published quarterly and CPI published monthly. I put its website in the manuscript. If necessary, you can click to view. ?
The second set of data is the yield to maturity of bonds and the P/E ratio and profit growth level of stock indexes.
For bond yield to maturity, we focus on the yield to maturity of 3-year AA+ corporate bonds, and the judgment index is whether the yield to maturity is higher than 5%. Above 5% you can consider buying, below 4% you can consider selling.
For the stock index, we focus on its P/E ratio.
SSE 50, we think that the P/E ratio of1-13 times is a reasonable range;
Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, we think that the price-earnings ratio of 12- 15 times is a reasonable range;
CSI 500, we think that the price-earnings ratio of 25-30 times is a reasonable range.
For the profit growth of the index, we think the trend is more important than the absolute value. Therefore, we can estimate the profit growth of stock index through the growth trend of GDP.