The insurance company's chances of winning are almost zero. The first insurance company has no evidence to prove that you have violated the insurance contract. According to the indistinguishable property losses in the insurance contract, whoever wants to make a profit generally has the burden of proof. In this case, if the insurance company refuses to pay compensation, it has the burden of proof. If there is no evidence to prove that you didn't agree, you should pay compensation.
Second, when the court adjudicates controversial insurance disputes, due to the information asymmetry in the understanding of insurance professional knowledge, the law favors the insured, because the insurance company has professional knowledge and a comprehensive understanding of insurance terms; The insured generally has no professional knowledge.
So you have a good chance of winning the second trial.