Author | Xu Yun
Editor | Feng Yu
SAIC's "bitter days" are not over yet.
In 2020, SAIC achieved a revenue of 723.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of12.52%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 20.4365438 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. This is the second year that SAIC has experienced negative growth in performance, with revenue hitting a new low of nearly five years and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies hitting a new low of nearly nine years.
In the capital market, SAIC's performance is also very weak. As the largest car company in China by market value, SAIC once became a broken net stock in 2020, and its market value was overtaken by its younger brothers whose performance and sales volume were far less than their own. First BYD, then Weilai and other new car-making forces, and even Great Wall Motor, a traditional car company, stood out.
Why is SAIC here? Is SAIC worth investing after making efforts in the field of new energy?
The 2020 financial report released by SAIC on the evening of March 25th showed that its annual cumulative sales volume reached 5,600,500 vehicles, which is the sales champion of domestic car companies, and this is also the position occupied by SAIC for consecutive 15 years.
But there are hidden worries behind the needle crown.
According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2020, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 25.225 million, 253 1. 1.00 million respectively, down by 2% and 1.9% respectively. In the same period, the production and sales of SAIC were 5,464,200 vehicles and 5,600,500 vehicles, respectively, down by1.18% and 10.22% respectively. Obviously, SAIC lost the market.
In 2020, the downturn of SAIC even alarmed the top of Shanghai. In May, 2020, shanghai securities news reported that the main leaders in charge of Shanghai attached great importance to SAIC's "sudden braking" incident and made special instructions to ask SAIC to study the existing problems from the aspects of brand, quality and sales. Relevant departments in Shanghai will increase their support for SAIC's nine brands and a variety of new cars, and support this important local car company in Shanghai.
"If the Shanghai government hadn't come to the rescue, SAIC would have been even worse." Zeng Piquan, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association New Energy Automobile Branch, was outspoken about the "tanker".
From the outside world, SAIC's long-term performance and sales depend on joint ventures such as SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling, but the performance of joint ventures in 2020 is not strong, which is an important reason for the decline of SAIC's performance and sales.
In 2020, SAIC-Volkswagen achieved sales of 654.38+0.5055 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 65.438+05.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.65%. Embarrassed, as a joint venture company of Volkswagen in China, FAW-Volkswagen achieved a sales volume of 265,438+06.180,000 vehicles in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+0.5%, in sharp contrast with SAIC- Volkswagen.
In addition to external factors such as the epidemic situation, the evaluation of Passat, a subsidiary of SAIC Volkswagen, triggered a crisis of consumers' confidence in the quality of its products, which was also regarded by the outside world as an important reason affecting the sales of SAIC Volkswagen in 2020. According to the data of the Federation, the cumulative sales volume of SAIC-Volkswagen Passat in 2020 was 65,438+028,882 vehicles (excluding PHEV models), down 365,438+0.9% year-on-year.
Regarding the sales gap between SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen, Zeng Pikuan analyzed "Tank Car" and said that from the consumer's point of view, the overall model of FAW-Volkswagen is very beautiful and can better meet the needs of consumers.
"At present, the automobile market in China is no longer supported and helped by the government as before, but now it depends entirely on the market, adapts to market behavior, and changes from policy-oriented to market-oriented. The overall model of FAW-Volkswagen is good, especially the overall high-end new energy vehicles, which can meet consumer preferences. " Zeng Piquan further pointed out that the design and quality of products are the only leading factors in the market.
SAIC General Motors, another sales force under SAIC, did not perform well in 2020. Its annual sales volume was 65,438+0,467,500 vehicles, down 8.29% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 465.438+0.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.56%.
The sales volume of SAIC-GM-Wuling decreased by 3.6 1% year-on-year, and the sales volume reached 6.5438+0.6 million units. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 65.438+0.42 billion yuan, down 965.438+0.62% year-on-year.
In terms of capacity utilization, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling are the three major subsidiaries of SAIC, but they all declined in 2020. Among them, SAIC Volkswagen's capacity utilization rate decreased from 104% and 438+09 in 2065 to 72% in 2020, SAIC-GM from 85% to 74%, and SAIC-GM-Wuling from 94% to 88%.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the capacity utilization rate of the automobile manufacturing industry will be 73.5% in 2020. Among the subsidiaries of SAIC 1 1, six companies, including SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC Chase, Nanjing Automobile Iveco, SAIC Zheng Da, SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Indonesia Co., Ltd. and MG India Co., Ltd., have lower capacity utilization rates than the industry level. This is obviously not a good signal.
It is worth mentioning that the performance of SAIC's independent sector in 2020 is relatively less bleak. The sales volume of SAIC passenger cars, which is responsible for the R&D, manufacturing and sales of SAIC's own brand cars, decreased slightly by 2.29% in 2020, but compared with the joint venture brands, the sales volume of 657,900 vehicles has not yet formed a strong support.
In Zeng Peiquan's view, the decline in SAIC's sales and performance is not due to excessive dependence on the development of joint ventures, but to the poor development of independent brands. "Whether the design of independent brands can adapt to changes in the market is the most important thing. In the end, we should adapt to the market, and at the same time, we should also look at consumers' acceptance of products. SAIC's products have always been dull, which is related to the nature of its state-owned enterprises. Development is affected by the system and innovation is not enough. "
"For example, many models of SAIC, including Roewe, are targeted sales, which limits the development of its entire automobile brand, especially its own brand, and the innovation is not strong enough." Zeng Yuquan gave an example.
Performance and sales are not good, and SAIC's performance in the capital market is also unsatisfactory.
Looking back on 2020, it is undoubtedly the era of "grievance" of traditional car companies. Tesla, Weilai, Tucki, Ideality and other new car-making forces in China, even though the company's profit is difficult, the sales of new energy vehicles are still "niche", but in terms of market value, they still lag behind the large traditional car companies that occupy the mainstream position in the automobile market.
In China automobile industry, SAIC may be the most aggrieved.
BYD, which holds the business of new energy vehicles and power batteries, became the most eye-catching new energy vehicle leader in A-shares in 2020, and surpassed SAIC in market value for the first time on July 7, 2020, replacing SAIC as the "No.1 car enterprise in China in market value".
"It is inevitable that the new forces of building cars will receive more attention than traditional car companies. On the one hand, the losses of new energy car companies are shrinking upwards. On the other hand, the sunset industry is declining, while traditional car companies are too big to completely transform. " Zhang Chi, the chairman of Ding Xin Capital, once talked to Tanker about the valuation difference between new energy car companies and traditional car companies.
In the period of the automobile industry's transition to the new energy era, major traditional automobile enterprises have also accelerated the pace of transformation and made a greater voice in the field of new energy vehicles. Wuling Hong Guang MINIEV, a subsidiary of SAIC-GM-Wuling, is positioned as a "people's scooter" with a price of only 28,800-38,800 yuan, which is very close to the people. After listing, it quickly became an explosive product, occupying the first place in the sales list of electric vehicles for a long time.
In 2020, SAIC achieved a sales volume of 320,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 73.4%. The new energy vehicle sales group ranks first in the country and third in the world.
However, the title of the new energy sales champion is just "looking beautiful". From the current point of view, this has limited boost to SAIC's share price. As of April 2, BYD's market value was 503.2 billion yuan, more than twice that of SAIC's 232.5 billion yuan; The market value of Weilai, a new car-making force established only six years ago, closed at US$ 62.246 billion (about RMB 4085./kloc-0.40 billion), which also far exceeded SAIC.
"SAIC's sales volume ranks first in the country, but the best sales volume is Wuling, and the price cannot be compared with BYD and Weilai. BYD Han and Weilai ES6, ES8 and other models sell well, and the average price is basically several hundred thousand, but how much does Wuling sell? Therefore, SAIC does have sales, but its market value is not as high as BYD and Weilai. " Zeng Piquan was outspoken about the "tanker".
In 2020, SAIC-GM-Wuling achieved a production capacity of 1.5547 million vehicles and a sales volume of 1.60 1.000 vehicles, ranking first among all SAIC subsidiaries. However, in 2020, the net profit attributable to SAIC-GM-Wuling's parent company dropped by 965,438+0.62% year-on-year, reaching only 6,543.8+0.42 billion yuan, ranking the bottom among SAIC's major holding companies. Obviously, SAIC chose to exchange profits for market share.
If the soaring market value of BYD and Weilai is mainly influenced by the concept of new energy, then the backwardness of Great Wall Motor should arouse the vigilance of traditional car companies such as SAIC.
In 2020, Great Wall Motor announced its high-profile transformation into a global technology travel company, and launched three major technology brands of "Lemon", "Tank" and "Coffee Smart" in one breath, forming a technology ecology integrating "automatic driving, intelligent cockpit, efficient fuel and new energy".
"Great Wall is an innovative company and many new cars have come out." Zeng Piquan pointed out.
According to the financial report of Great Wall Motor, its performance and car sales in 2020 are not as good as SAIC's, but both are in a state of growth. Among them, revenue increased by 8.62% year-on-year, reaching 103308 million yuan; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 19.25% year-on-year, reaching 5.362 billion yuan; The cumulative automobile sales in the whole year were 1 1 15900 vehicles, up 5.4 1% year-on-year.
The capital market is quite buying this. As of April 2, the market value of Great Wall Motor has reached 3 155 billion yuan, which has also surpassed SAIC. The importance of change is self-evident.
It can be seen that in 2020, SAIC experienced a very difficult period. So is SAIC's future worth looking forward to?
In this regard, SAIC itself seems quite confident. SAIC has put forward the business goal of achieving automobile sales of 610.7 million vehicles in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of10.2% in 5438+0.7 years. It is estimated that the total operating income will be 830 billion yuan and the operating cost will be 720 billion yuan.
Wei Yong, vice president and chief financial officer of SAIC, said at the performance briefing that this forecast is mainly based on two aspects: one is the general trend of domestic cars this year, and the other is the positive trend of SAIC in new energy vehicles and overseas markets.
Although SAIC will be left behind by new energy concept stocks in market value in 2020, judging from the layout of SAIC in the new energy field in recent years, especially 202 1, SAIC's transformation campaign is not worth looking forward to.
In terms of new energy, SAIC not only invested heavily in Weimar Automobile, Momenta Autopilot and other industrial chain related companies, but also launched R Automobile, and joined hands with Ali and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech to build a new energy brand Zhiji Automobile.
According to Wei Yong, Zhiji Automobile will take the high-end route to create a deep intelligent experience, and three models will be released one after another this year; The R standard is defined as "New Power National Team", which mainly creates intelligent cockpit scenes that meet differentiated needs and supports users to purchase intelligent driving services on demand. It is planned to launch two models in April next year, 10. Roewe and MG are mainly cost-effective.
Among the joint venture brands, ID.4 X, the first electric vehicle of the ID family built by SAIC Volkswagen based on MEB platform, has been officially put on sale recently, and the price after comprehensive subsidy is 199900 -272900 yuan. It is reported that before the listing of ID.4 X, SAIC Volkswagen has completed the landing of more than 250 ID.4 X dealers.
Yang Siyao, executive director of Volkswagen brand marketing of said Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd., said that said Volkswagen has set a sales target of about 300,000 new energy vehicles this year, which will release the first-phase capacity of its MEB factory. SAIC-Volkswagen hopes that its share in China's new energy market will reach 9%, and this goal will be achieved through three brand-new ID series electric vehicles-ID.4, ID.6 and ID.3, which will be listed this year. Among them, ID.4 X will contribute 50,000-60,000 vehicles.
"This year is an important year for our products. In addition to the ID series, three products will be launched, and the most pillar products of Touran, Tiguan and Passat will all launch new models. Ling Du will also be replaced at the end of this year and early next year. " Yang Yuyao revealed.
Obviously, SAIC, which is deeply mired in fuel vehicles and capital markets, wants to pull back a city with new energy.
"SAIC has a strong investment and layout in new energy, and it has a long-term vision. Constantly promoting innovation is at the forefront and is recognized in the industry. " I once told Tanker that many new energy automobile companies are willing to dig talents from SAIC, especially technical talents.
However, Zeng Pikuan pointed out that R car is relatively dull in marketing at present, "because its marketing is only promoted in WeChat circle of friends and Tik Tok. There are not many marketing and explosions, and there will be a good car, but the whole sales volume will not come up. "
In addition to new energy sources, the SAIC Audi project has also made new progress. On April 1 day, SAIC Volkswagen announced that Jia Mingyong, the former general manager of SAIC Volkswagen Sales Company, was transferred to the executive deputy general manager of SAIC Volkswagen Audi Marketing Division. According to media reports, the A7L, the first domestic model of SAIC Audi, will be officially launched at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year.
After many layouts, it can be seen that although SAIC's share price is also in a downward trend after the Spring Festival, it closed at 19.9 yuan on April 2, which is at a low level in recent years, but some brokerage research reports are still optimistic.
Bank of China Securities gave a buy rating on the day after SAIC's financial report was released (March 26th). The reasons include: comprehensive layout of smart electric vehicles to build a long-term competitive advantage; The domestic public welcomes the new product cycle, and overseas markets are conducive to long-term development.
Although soochow securities lowered the profit forecast of SAIC 202 1-2022, it adjusted SAIC to "overweight" rating. It pointed out in the research report that it is expected that SAIC Volkswagen and GM will stabilize at the bottom as the company's Zhiji+new R standard high-end intelligent electric brand opens up the new energy market and continuously explores overseas markets.
In the communication with the tanker, many secondary market investors think that the reform of SAIC's state-owned enterprise system is slow, and the traditional car companies' own thinking is easy to solidify, but they still think that they can wait for a long time and wait for the opportunity to bargain-hunting.
"It's good to buy now." Zhou Cheng (pseudonym), an investor in the secondary market, believes that the performance of SAIC 20 19 fell sharply in the fourth quarter, and in 2020, it was hit by the epidemic and new energy, and even once broke the net. Judging from the data, it is now in an oversold position.
Huang Xingsen (pseudonym), another investor in the secondary market, warned of the risk of short-term fluctuations. "25 yuan bought it early when he bought it around, and just took over at a high level. The stock market plummeted after the holiday, which made it worse, but in the long run, I am still more optimistic about the future transformation of SAIC. "
Huang Xingsen revealed that he recently increased his position in SAIC several times and invested about 50,000 yuan.
There is no doubt that in the current automobile market, the "new four modernizations" of automobiles such as electrification, networking, intelligence and enjoyment are setting off a scientific and technological revolution.
Young new car-making forces can use new energy to overtake the car industry in corners, but traditional car companies can't change it. In the current automobile market, we can see that traditional automobile enterprises, including SAIC, have stepped out of the pace of change, whether voluntarily or forced by the market.
However, change does not necessarily mean success. At the critical moment of the handover of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, testing will be the core skill of car companies.
Special note: This article does not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.
* The title of this article comes from: Picture Network, based on VRF protocol.