The solar sector index rose 80% from the low point in March! Break through the high point since 20 15!
On February 23rd 12, there was a batch of daily limit.
According to China Energy News, 10 On February 22nd, China Energy Policy Research Annual Conference 2020 and the fourth quarter meeting of China Power Roundtable were held in Beijing. A representative said at the meeting that at present, the National Energy Administration has put forward the goal that "in 20021year, China's wind and solar power generation will increase by10.20 billion kilowatts (10.20 GW)".
The data shows that in recent years, the installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation in China has always maintained a rapid growth trend. In 20 14-20 19, the total newly-increased scale of wind power and solar power generation in China was 33 million, 48 million, 54 million, 68 million, 65 million and 56 million kilowatts respectively, and it will be from 1 to1in 2020. Although the maximum annual increase is 68 million kilowatts, this figure is still lower than the average growth requirement of 74 million kilowatts in the future 10, and also significantly lower than the development goal of 654.38+200 million kilowatts in 202 1 year.
If the goal of adding 120 GW to the scenery of the Energy Bureau next year is finally realized, it will undoubtedly exceed market expectations again, which is also the hardest logic for the accelerated rise of wind power and photovoltaic in the near future. From the data analysis, it can be seen that 20 19 is an inflection point, and the installed capacity in 2020 will reach a new high in the past six years, which is of course related to the new infrastructure plan to quickly restore the economy launched at the beginning of the year.
In addition, the main background of China's goal of repeatedly increasing the installed capacity of new energy is the peak of carbon dioxide emission and the mandatory task of carbon neutrality. The so-called carbon neutrality means that the carbon dioxide absorbed by trees offsets the carbon dioxide emissions of normal production and life. 18 February 18 Central Economic Work Conference, doing a good job of carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutrality is one of the key tasks to be done next year, and it is determined that China's carbon dioxide emission will peak before 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The only way to achieve carbon neutrality is to increase the proportion of renewable energy. 65438+February 2 1, the white paper "Energy Development in China in the New Era" issued by the State Council proposed to give priority to the development of renewable energy and accelerate the increase of the proportion of non-fossil energy in energy supply.
65438+2021The National Energy Work Conference on February 22nd proposed to speed up the development of wind photovoltaic and greatly enhance the absorption and storage capacity of new energy.
Chen Su, chief researcher of Zhongtai Securities Telecom, believes that after the dismantling of the above-mentioned 120 GW newly installed standard, it is estimated that wind power will account for 40 GW and photovoltaic will account for 80 GW. According to the calculation of Chen Su's team, if the proportion of non-fossil energy is increased from 20% to 25% in 2030, the average annual installed capacity of wind energy and light energy will be increased from 202 1.56 GW to 48 GW and 108 GW respectively. Obviously, this will bring huge growth space to related listed companies.
However, the real problem is not how to quickly increase the installed capacity, but how to absorb wind power in the power grid. About 50 billion kWh of wind power and photovoltaic power are wasted every year.
According to the data of Energy Bureau, the consumption of new energy power is in a bottleneck period. In previous years, the wind abandonment rate has been around 15%, and in 20 18, the wind abandonment rate dropped to 7%. The waste rate of light energy was about 10% in previous years, and decreased to 3% in 20 18 years. But these two figures are confused, and the figures of 3% and 7% are only provincial averages. The wind abandonment rate in Xinjiang, Gansu and Inner Mongolia, which are major wind power provinces, is still very high, and the light abandonment rate in Tibet and Xinjiang, which are major photoelectric provinces, is also very high. The instability of photovoltaic and wind power is the biggest problem in power grid consumption.
Since 20 17, nearly 50% of residential solar power generation equipment in Europe has been equipped with battery energy storage system. In 20 19, Germany alone deployed home energy storage systems for tens of thousands of families, with a total capacity of about 1GW. Therefore, in order to support the grand new energy power generation plan, we must solve the problem of new energy consumption, and one of the solutions is energy storage.
There is no doubt that energy storage is conducive to the grid connection of photovoltaic and wind power, promoting consumption, improving power quality and reliability, and ensuring system stability. However, in the mainstream bidding mode, the profits of photovoltaic and wind power have been extremely compressed, and the extra energy storage expenditure of about 1 MWh is undoubtedly worse. This is the main obstacle to new energy in the future. In any case, there is a great opportunity to store energy. Therefore, for the stock market, it is better to speculate on energy storage than to speculate on photovoltaic wind power.
Major companies:
Du Nan Power Supply (300068)
The company entered the field of energy storage from 20 1 1 and has many years of project experience. The company has the ability of R&D system solutions and energy storage product system production, system integration and operation services. Previously, domestic energy storage was mainly based on user-side energy storage, with a small scale. With the improvement of economic benefits and the promotion of national energy strategy, it is expected that the energy storage demand of power grid side and new energy generation side will develop rapidly in the future. The company has obvious first-Mover advantage in the field of energy storage and is expected to benefit directly. (Excerpted from Guohai Securities Research Report)
Xinleineng (300593)
The company's Q3 net profit was 65.438+0.63 billion yuan, more than doubling year-on-year. Q2' s net profit returned to the mother includes 260 million yuan of performance compensation income. Excluding the impact of one-time income, the company's Q3 performance showed an obvious growth trend year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, which was due to the synchronization of the company's three major businesses: 654.38+0) the demand for communication 5G and backup power for data centers increased significantly, and the company's product shipments increased compared with the same period of last year, bringing performance contributions; 2) Shipments of civil power products increased compared with the same period of last year; 3) Operating income and performance contribution of energy storage products increased compared with the same period of last year. Although the overseas epidemic continues, business exhibitions such as data centers and energy storage have gradually recovered.
Yishite (300376)
In August this year, the company completed the state-owned shares and completed the change of the new leadership decision-making level at the end of 10, and then started new financing projects. The fund-raising investment projects are oriented to technology research and development, focusing on R&D in the fields of power products and systems of 5G data centers, new energy vehicles and charging facilities, energy storage and energy Internet systems.
Author: Ding Zhenyu's practice certificate: A06806 1304000 1
The listed companies in this paper are only used as case studies, not recommended by individual stocks, and the data are publicly available. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.