Analysis of P2G Model of Online Loan What is P2G model and what are the potential risks?

From the literal understanding of P2G, it seems that G should refer to granting credit to the government, or at least to state-owned enterprises. But the literal P2G model does not exist in theory. P2P model and P2B model can work because policies and regulations allow private lending. The borrower of private lending can be an individual or an enterprise. As long as it does not violate the red line of "200" people and does not exceed 4 times the benchmark interest rate of central bank loans, its lending contract is protected by law. However, the government's financing channels and investment destination are strictly controlled by the financial budget unit, so the peer-to-peer lending platform cannot become the financing channel at the government level, and the G of P2G can never directly point to the local government.

For private enterprises, P2B mode is possible, because the boss of private enterprises is often the sole shareholder or major shareholder of private enterprises, and the decision-making power of enterprises is entirely in their own hands, and the ways of enterprise borrowing, enterprise owners providing unlimited joint guarantee liability or enterprise owners borrowing and enterprise providing counter-guarantee can be adopted. But for state-owned enterprises, because the chairman of the board of directors of state-owned enterprises is only the representative of the investor, the loan of state-owned enterprises should be approved by SASAC in theory, and G points out the procedural obstacles of state-owned enterprises. From an operational point of view, the literal P2G model doesn't work at all.

Many platforms flaunt themselves as P2G mode. The advertised "G" does not mean that the credit target of the platform is directly the government or state-owned enterprises, but that the credit projects they do are "government credit", that is, the financing projects are pledged by the accounts receivable of the government or state-owned enterprises or the financing projects are guaranteed by state-owned financing guarantee companies. In fact, the financing project mode with government or state-owned enterprise accounts receivable as pledge guarantee belongs to the popular factoring mode this year, and cooperation with state-owned financing guarantee companies for financing projects is also a common way of P2B mode.

From the perspective of model innovation, the so-called P2G gameplay is nothing new. However, the emergence of this model should still be vigilant, because in practice, the platform of P2G model may become a new financing channel for local governments and urban investment platforms under their control, by obtaining accounts receivable from the government and state-owned enterprises as collateral.

According to the practitioners of P2G platform, the reason why we cut into the financing projects endorsed by government credit is because the risks of the projects endorsed by government credit are lower, which can enhance the protection of the investment income of wealth managers. It seems that financial managers should be thankful that this sudden P2G model has completely freed them from the personal-to-personal loan circle that they often escape. But I beg to differ. The potential risk of the so-called "P2G" financing project is not as low as expected. At present, the risk of local debt is high, and the default of government credit endorsement project is imminent. Once the real economy declines, there will be a chain reaction of local debt crisis, and the creditor with the weakest negotiation ability-the peer-to-peer lending platform wealth manager is bound to bear the brunt.

According to a survey conducted by Standard & Poor's, a rating agency recently disclosed by FT Chinese website, among the 3 1 local governments in China surveyed by Standard & Poor's, 15 should be rated as "garbage". 20 1 1 April, the CBRC issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Risk Supervision of Local Financing Platforms 2011,requiring banks to "reduce the old loans and control the new ones" for platform loans, which is also based on a clear understanding that the local debt crisis may break out at any time. At this point, the peer-to-peer lending platform cuts into local government financing to fill the market gap left by the withdrawal of formal finance such as commercial banks.

The author always believes that peer-to-peer lending must adhere to the basic concept of small amount and dispersion. More than 70% of foreign P2P platforms represented by LendingClub are personal consumption credit, and the credit limit is generally only one month's salary, so the platform does not need to pay attention to the borrower's repayment ability at all, but only needs to pay attention to the borrower's repayment willingness. On the one hand, the online lending platform can identify borrowers who are relatively reliable and willing to repay through the collection of online and offline information, on the other hand, it can increase the cost of default and strengthen borrowers' willingness to repay through online blacklisting and other punishment mechanisms.

At first, the domestic platform mainly provided small loans for small and micro enterprises, but in the process of transformation, it gradually gave up the concept of small and scattered and turned to large-scale financing projects. Some platforms have launched financing projects ranging from 10 million to 20 million, and some platforms even provide financing services with a single project financing amount of over 100 million. In this way, on the one hand, the platform should pay attention to the borrower's repayment willingness, on the other hand, it should pay more attention to the borrower's repayment ability, and the reason why the large-sum financing demanders raise funds from the platform at high interest rates itself shows that their repayment ability is not strong, and the potential risks of the platform providing such large-sum financing services are self-evident. At present, P2G platform deviates from the basic concept of small amount and decentralization and turns to government project financing, which may face the double risks of insufficient repayment willingness and ability.