According to the annual market forecast report (202 1-2040) published by Comac China, in the next 20 years, the aviation market in China will receive 9084 passenger planes with 50 seats or more, with a value of about 1.4 trillion US dollars (based on the catalogue price in 2020), including 953 turbofans for regional aircraft with 50 seats or more,/kloc-0. By 2040, the fleet size of China will reach 9,957, accounting for 22% of the global passenger aircraft fleet, making it the largest single aviation market in the world. Li of CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. said that it is equivalent to 3 15 single-channel trunk passenger planes every year, and there is a market space of 200 billion according to the latest delivery price of C 9 19.
From the perspective of industrial chain, large aircraft includes design and development, advanced manufacturing (new materials, parts, airframe manufacturing, airborne systems, assembly integration) and operation and maintenance.
Zhang Runyi of Cinda Securities said that the development of large aircraft has a driving effect on national economic growth. A large plane usually has 3-5 million parts. The development of large aircraft can drive the development of new materials, advanced manufacturing, electronic information and other fields, and the industrial chain is ready to go.
Founder Securities pointed out that compared with competing aircraft, C9 19 adopted more advanced technology and higher degree of automation in overall design, and its fuel consumption was less than that of similar aircraft 12%- 15%. Guo Hai Securities Li believes that from most performance indicators, C9 19 has caught up with Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, and its aerodynamic performance is even better than that of European and American models. Most of these performance advantages benefit from material selection.
In terms of upstream raw materials, the body of C9 19 is mainly composed of aluminum alloy, aluminum-lithium alloy, T800 carbon fiber composite, glass fiber composite, coating material, adhesive, sealing profile, aviation special steel, titanium alloy and aviation tire.
C9 19 large passenger plane is the first civil aircraft model in China using T800-class high-strength carbon fiber composite materials. Li predicted that after C9 19 was put into production, the carbon fiber consumption would be 48.4 15 tons/year, and the estimated market capacity would be 65.438+0. 1 100 million yuan/year.
From the current domestic carbon fiber production structure, Jihua Fiber, Zhongfu Shen Ying and Xinchuang Carbon Valley rank in the top three, accounting for 35%, 14% and 12% respectively. In addition, listed companies with carbon fiber production capacity include Shanghai Petrochemical and Zhong Jian Science and Technology.
In terms of aviation tires, it is estimated that by 2026, the demand for C9 19 aviation tires will be about 8052 pieces/year, and the market capacity in 2026 is expected to be 45 million yuan/year. The listed companies involved are: Linglong Tire, Sen Qilin, Haohua Technology, etc.
According to Akzo Nobel official website, the coating materials used in aircraft mainly include cabin coating, flexible wing coating, thermal insulation coating and anti-skid coating for walkways. According to estimates, the market capacity of coating materials on C9 19 aircraft is about 32.25 million yuan. Listed companies involved include: Haohua Technology, Matsui, Guangxin Materials, Luffy and Donglai Technology.
Since the birth of aviation industry, bonding technology has been applied to the manufacture of various aircraft structures. According to the calculation, it is conservatively estimated that the market capacity of adhesives for large aircraft is 9.92 million yuan/year. The listed companies involved include Silibao Technology, Tian Huixin Materials, Kangda New Materials, Ji Tai, and Gaomeng New Materials.
In addition, aluminum alloys are mainly used as structural materials in aircraft, such as skins, frames, propellers, fuel tanks, panels and landing gear struts. The listed companies involved mainly include China Aluminum, nanshan aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum and Shenhuo.
Li pointed out that the development of C9 19 has brought a broad demand to the materials industry, and suggested paying attention to Guangwei Composite, Zhong Jian Science and Technology, Haohua Science and Technology, Morikirin, Matsui and Tianhui New Materials.