Edit | Yang Xuan
The community group buying war is entering a new stage.
36Kr learned exclusively from several independent sources that after the Spring Festival, the community group-buying giants have set a target of 202 1: Meituan preferred to lock the annual GMV at 200 billion, which will impact the single volume of 50-60 million/day; The GMV target of buying more vegetables in 20021year is150 billion; The optimal value of orange heart is 654.38+000 billion, and the optimal value of prosperity is about 80 billion. 36Kr verified this, but Meituan, Pinduoduo and Shengxing Youxuan did not respond.
This means that each family has set a high goal of doubling its performance this year. A comparable data is that the first choice for prosperity in 2020 is 40 billion, and the GMV of the 10th Hui Group and Tongcheng Life Insurance are all around 654.38+00 billion. Just at the recent fourth quarter earnings conference, Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, disclosed that in the second half of June 5438+February, 2020, the preferred amount of Meituan had exceeded 20 million orders/day.
As far as the current progress is concerned, according to informed sources, 36Kr revealed after the Spring Festival that the number of orders selected by the US Mission has stabilized at 23 million/day, with a daily peak of 27 million; In contrast, the single amount of the buy more is about 20 million, and the prosperity is preferably close to 654.38+0.5 million.
At present, some unit prices of grocery shopping and Meituan's selection are around 8 yuan, and orange heart selection is around 5 yuan. According to this calculation, the daily average GMV of Meituan Select is 65.438+0.8 billion, and most of the food purchases are around 65.438+0.6 billion (this figure reached 65.438+0.8 billion before the Spring Festival). According to informed sources, the average daily GMV of Orange Heart after the festival is close to 654.38+0 billion yuan, "growth resumed from the Spring Festival". Recently, orange heart optimization once again increased subsidies in key areas, and the single quantity approached to buy more grain.
So, how to evaluate the community group buying business? On the evening of March 29th, Wumart Group submitted a listing prospectus. According to the prospectus, on March 26th, Wumart signed a share purchase agreement with Orange Heart to subscribe for no more than 2% of the latter's equity at the highest consideration of $65.438 billion. It is estimated that the valuation of Orange Heart will reach $5 billion. Under the background that the operating data is not as good as that of Meituan, and more food is bought, the valuation of the latter two will be more than that. After the financing of $3 billion is completed.
In addition to the GMV goal, the change of 202 1 will also make the community group buying giants play better. "Buy more food. At present, the traffic in the station accounts for 60%. The goal of this year (buy more) is to increase BD, recruit people, increase the traffic of WeChat, and seize the core users of other homes. "
According to a person familiar with the matter, the product categories of each family will be adjusted this year, and the products with low unit price will be reduced. The unit price of the target parts optimized by Meituan is above 10 yuan. "But it is unrealistic to reduce subsidies in the short term, mainly by expanding SKU categories and increasing high-priced goods. This year, Meituan preferred to expand the SKU from 1 0,000 to 2,000 (less than 1 0,500), and optimized the performance link to make the UE model more beautiful. "
This largely refers to the optimization of the economy. Before the giants enter the community group buying track, Sheng Xing is more inclined to reduce the proportion of fresh products (from the current 33% to 25-26%) and increase the unit price of products (such as machinery, electrical appliances and furniture). ), has achieved profitability in some core areas. Informed sources told 36Kr that at present, the gross profit (including loss) of fresh food categories selected by Meituan, Duocai and Orange Heart is generally negative, while the gross profit of other categories is generally lower than 10%. Whether the customer unit price and gross profit margin can be improved largely determines whether several giants can successfully achieve the GMV target of 202 1.
As for the construction of grid warehouses, a meeting minutes obtained by 36Kr showed that as of mid-March this year, the number of grid warehouses at the Buy More was roughly 400-500, Wang 600-700 and Meituan 1300. However, Shengxing Youxuan cut about 200 lattice warehouses when doing logistics optimization last year.
"The goal is to merge the grid warehouses and build a secondary city warehouse (1000-2000 flat) to undertake some functions of general warehouses." An insider close to prosperity optimization told 36Kr. In the past six months, according to media reports, power grid warehouses in many areas have been closed to buy more vegetables. One core of buying more vegetables this year is to optimize the contract cost. According to industry estimates, if the current unit price is maintained, Meituan will reduce the contract cost to below 0.6 yuan by selecting and purchasing more vegetables, so as to achieve profitability, but there are still many gaps between the two companies.
Previously, a US group preferred a grid warehouse franchisee in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai to disclose to 36Kr that in order to optimize the operation process of the grid warehouse, the US group would require its grid warehouse to add cameras, monitor in real time, digitize each process, and make fine adjustments through data operation; In addition, the US Mission preferably sent headquarters personnel to the stagnation point one after another to keep a close eye on the operation process.
After relying on the box horse market to test the water for a period of time, Ali recently established MMC business group, focusing on community group buying business and integrating the community group buying business in retail with the box horse market. The head of the business group is Ali partner Daishan, who is also the president of Ali B2B business group.
Although Daishan said in an open letter that MMC business group is different from the current community group buying model, its model is "near-field e-commerce", but many people think that this is Ali's initiative to integrate group resources to group buying. And this business obviously faces many challenges. An insider of Ali, who had visited the Frontline competition, told 36Kr, "On the one hand, we have to face the problem of operational cooperation with the tenth club (the tenth club has all been connected to the Taobao grocery entrance), on the other hand, we have fallen behind too much in the early stage, especially in the performance stage."
Some insiders told 36Kr that "Taobao Shopping" still mainly relies on the tenth club when it accesses the tenth club and the box horse market at the same time; However, in the total order of the tenth group, the shopping flow of Taobao only accounts for 20%, and the official of the tenth group also confirmed this figure as 36Kr, which shows that the user's mind about shopping in Taobao has not been fully established. On April 1 this year, the Tenth Club announced the completion of the D round of financing of 750 million US dollars, and Ali led the investment again. It can be seen that Ali did not give up the business logic of "foreign investment and internal integration" in community group buying.
After obtaining $3 billion in financing, this year's Shengshi Optimization will also enter the national layout. At present, in addition to "Beijing-Shanghai+Northeast Provinces+Inner Mongolia-Tibet-Hainan", Prosperity Optimization has covered nearly 200 prefecture-level cities in 18 province, and Meituan Optimization, Buy More and Orange Heart Optimization have covered more than 300 prefecture-level cities.
Some people in the capital market told 36Kr that last year, Meituan invested about 654.38+0 billion RMB in community group buying business, and Pinduoduo invested 6-7 billion RMB. This year, the investment of Meituan will reach 20 billion RMB, and Pinduoduo will continue to increase investment. 36Kr verified this, and both Meituan and Pinduoduo declined to comment. Although in the past four quarters, the losses of Meituan and Duoduo in new business have expanded with the naked eye, but this kind of close combat can not be decided in the short term, and then it is time to compete for internal strength.