In aquaculture, moderate scale benefit is the highest. Then, according to what factors should pig farmers determine their breeding scale? In production, we should consider the aggregation degree of production factors such as pigs, labor, capital and equipment in pig production and business units, and determine the appropriate pig scale in combination with local conditions and personal actual conditions to obtain the best economic benefits with the best output rate.
Different sizes of pigs have different economic benefits. The survey shows that the annual net income of farmers with less than 30 pigs is 208 1.7 yuan. 3 1 ~ 50 farmers, the annual net income is 2660.438+0 yuan. The annual net income of farmers who raise 10 1 ~ 200 and 20 1 ~ 500 is 7038.0 yuan and 32569.6 yuan respectively, which means that only when they reach a certain scale can they get higher benefits. The scale depends on the actual situation. It is suggested that the annual production scale of pigs should be 100 ~ 200. If sows are still raised, it is advisable to raise 20 sows, 2 boars and 300 ~ 500 commercial pigs every year.
After determining the scale of feed production, we should make an annual plan, especially the feed plan. Now take the scale of raising 20 sows, 2 boars and slaughtering 350 pigs a year as an example to analyze. Each sow needs 1 100 kg complete feed every year, and the slaughter pigs range from 15 kg to 1 15 kg. Each sow needs about 380 kg of mixture, and each piglet needs about 15 kg of mixture from birth to weight. In this way, the total amount of mixture needed for the whole year is: 1 100 kg/head× 22 heads = 24,200 kg, 380 kg/head× 350 heads =133,000 kg, 15 kg/head× 350 heads = 52,000.
If the selected breed is only a pure commercial fattening pig, it is suggested that farmers should not raise purebred pigs, let alone foreign breeds such as Yorkshire and Duroc. Although these pigs grow fast and have high lean meat rate, compared with hybrid pigs, they have low viability, weak disease resistance and poor meat quality. Commercial pigs generally better raise piglets produced by crossbreeding local sows with Landrace pigs and Yorkshire pigs. This kind of pig has heterosis, strong viability and disease resistance, fast growth and good meat quality. If you are a farmer who also raises sows, you should raise local sows and landrace and Yorkshire boars. On the premise of epidemic prevention, boars can be farmed outside. Farmers who also raise sows should be self-supporting. If they need to buy breeding sows, they can breed breeding sows by recurrent hybridization first.
Now:
Recently, the Political Consultative Conference of Shouguang City, Shandong Province investigated the pig market in Shouguang City, Shandong Province.
According to the survey, there are currently 383,500 live pigs in Shouguang, including 55,000 sows. Recently, the price of live pigs has dropped rapidly, with a difference of nearly 0.5 yuan dollars per catty between the beginning of August and the end of August. The price of live pigs in Shouguang City has dropped from the highest price in history 15 yuan/kg, which is generally lower than that in 7 yuan/kg, and some varieties have even been sold to 5.9 yuan/kg, setting a new low for live pigs this year.
The price of live pigs fluctuated this year.
Since the price of pork rose last year, the state has established a long-term pork reserve system and introduced a sow subsidy system, which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of local farmers. "From February to March this year, the slaughter price of live pigs was the highest, reaching 9.5 yuan/kg, and sometimes sold to 10 yuan/kg." Mr. Liu, a farmer who has been raising pigs for decades, recalled that the price of pigs in this round was unprecedented.
However, since May this year, the price of live pigs began to fluctuate. In the meantime, the price of live pigs dropped from 8.2 yuan -8.5 yuan/kg to 6.7 yuan -7. 1 yuan/kg, and the price of piglets also dropped significantly. According to Zhang Shaoyong, a pig farmer, the reason why the price of live pigs has dropped during this period is mainly related to factors such as the susceptible period of live pigs and the increase in feed prices, but many pig farmers have not lost confidence.
The decline in the price of live pigs has also led to a simultaneous decline in pork prices. On August 28th, the pork prices in Jialejia Supermarket of Zhong Bai Building in Shouguang City were 9.98 yuan/kg for the front elbow, 0.98 yuan/kg for the back elbow, and 0.48 yuan/kg for Wuhua/kloc-0, all of which were about lower than those in early August in 0.5 yuan. "10 yuan pork" has returned to the public dining table.
The price of live pigs is close to the critical point of profit and loss
According to estimates, the current price of corn in Shouguang City is 0.85 yuan/kg, and the price of soybean meal is 4,050 yuan/ton, up 35% and 25% respectively. Pig farmers make their own ingredients 1.4 yuan/kg or so. Feed accounts for more than 60% of the total cost of pig breeding.
Take about 30 sows raised in general families as an example. If it is self-breeding, the cost of 200 kg of fat pigs is about 5.9 yuan/kg. If sold at 7 yuan/kg, the profit per sow is around 200 yuan, which tends to be reasonable. Only the recent slaughter cost after fattening is about/kg in 6.9 yuan, which is almost a loss according to the current pig price.
Ma Qinshui, a farmer in Majia Village, Houzhen Town, Shouguang City, thinks that according to the current feed price, the critical point of autotrophic profit and loss is around 6.4 yuan/kg. Once the purchase price of live pigs is lower than 7 yuan/kg, the enthusiasm of farmers will be affected to varying degrees.
Looking forward to the introduction of long-term support policies.
Although the price of live pigs fluctuates, the staff of Shouguang Animal Husbandry Department found that most farmers are still full of confidence in pig breeding.
A farmer in Matuan Village, Sunjiaji Street said: "The price of pigs is not as good as before, but it is acceptable. The biggest concern for raising pigs is not the price, but the disease. No one can resist the death of a litter of piglets. "
"We are not expecting the higher the pig price, the better, or it is better to be stable. When the price stabilizes, the risk of raising pigs will be small, and we will have confidence. " This is the idea of most farmers.
"If the price is high, then rush to fill in the column. Quit the market if you don't make money. This short-term behavior of following the trend has intensified market turmoil and led to changes in meat prices. " The staff of Shouguang Animal Husbandry Bureau said, "Although the price of live pigs in Shouguang has not fluctuated greatly, many farmers and people in the industry are looking forward to the introduction of long-term support policies for pig production to maintain the stable development of pig breeding."
then
Pigs lost more than 400 yuan, and pig farmers began to panic selling. People from all walks of life believe that
After the Olympic Games, pork prices continued to fall, which worried Chen Jianmin, a pig farmer in Hanchuan. If he sold the 200 pigs released in June+10 in 5438 at the current price, he would lose 80,000 yuan. If he doesn't sell it, the heavy burden will be unbearable for him.
Recently, the reporter found that panic similar to that in Chen Jianmin is spreading among pig farmers. In order to reduce losses, many pig farmers are eager to sell their pigs. And large-scale pig-raising enterprises predict that the market is saturated, and the price of meat per catty will drop by 1 yuan in the coming year.
Hubei has a surplus of live pigs100000.
According to several pig farmers in Huangpi, since May last year, the purchase price of pigs has been rising all the way, reaching its peak in June this year: more 9 yuan per catty. After that, the purchase price began to adjust, and once fell to 5.8 yuan before and after the National Day, and even to 5.4 yuan/Jin in Fujian and other places.
What caused the purchase price of live pigs to continue to fall? Liu Shili, deputy general manager of Hubei Tianzhong Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., the largest pig-raising enterprise in our province, said that it was caused by several factors, such as the price reduction of raw materials, the saturation of output and the market rules.
He said that last year, affected by the epidemic, the number of live pigs dropped sharply and the price more than doubled. According to market rules, this abnormal increase will fall back sooner or later. Now there are more people raising pigs, and the market tends to be saturated, which further pushes down the purchase price.
A survey from the pig industry shows that 50 million sows in China will produce 800 million pigs this year, while the consumption is only 600 million, leaving 200 million pigs. In Hubei market, the estimated output value is 40 million, the consumption is 30 million, which is basically the same, with a surplus of 6.5438+million.
Next year, the price of meat will drop 1 yuan.
The price of live pigs is so low that the retail price has dropped accordingly. Liu Shili believes: "The market is surplus, and the price of meat will definitely fall."
The reporter learned that in recent months, the price of meat, like the purchase price of live pigs, has been falling all the way, from the average price 13 yuan/kg to 10 yuan/kg. According to Liu, according to market rules, the price of live pigs dropped by 1 yuan per catty, and the corresponding retail price dropped by 0.73 yuan. From June to 65438+10, the price of live pigs dropped nearly to 4 yuan, and the price of meat also dropped by 2-5. He predicted that there would be a surplus of live pigs, and the price would drop 1 yuan-1.5 yuan in the coming year. Similarly, the price per catty of meat will also drop by about 1 yuan.
"The continuous battle for meat price has begun." The heads of several pig-raising enterprises, including Tianzhong, hold this view. They believe that the price of meat has returned after a rise and a fall, and the cold winter has begun, and the winter time is about one year.
People from Wuhan Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau admitted that seasonal consumption peaks such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival will come, and meat prices will pick up slightly in the second half of the year. However, in April next year, with the arrival of another growth cycle of pigs, the number of live pigs will increase even more, and there is still room for further exploration of meat prices.
Ordinary pig farmers are facing hardships.
At present, these large enterprises have begun to adjust and actively face a new round of price reduction. The person in charge of an enterprise with an annual output of tens of thousands of pigs in Guangshui said that it is necessary to eliminate inferior pig breeds and replace them with excellent pig breeds in order to raise pig prices and prepare for the price increase next year.
According to insiders, because large enterprises can breed more sows and have strong anti-risk ability, and with the money earned last year, their fundamental interests will not be affected. Those ordinary pig farmers are faced with a painful choice. Once they can't support the price, they have to sell or kill the sow and then be squeezed out of the market.
retaliate
In the first half of this year, the increase in meat prices stimulated the market, and a large number of farmers joined the pig industry, but now the price of meat began to fall, which made farmers lose a lot.
Raising pigs costs more than 400 yuan.
Chen Jianmin, a pig farmer in Hanchuan, is currently in trouble. In June, when the price of feed and piglets was the highest, he bought 200 piglets, thinking that according to this market, he could sell at a high price by June 5438+ 10. What he didn't expect was that the purchase price fell to an all-time low in June+10, 5438. He simply calculated an account for the reporter: a piglet, 900 yuan, grew from 30 kg to 220 kg, and the feed cost was 940 yuan, excluding labor wages, management fees and other expenses. A pig weighing 220 kg is 8.36 yuan per kg.
"By yesterday, the purchase price of pig dealers was only 6. 1 yuan/kg." Chen said that in this way, the price difference is much more than that of 2 yuan. A pig will lose more than 400 yuan, and 200 pigs will lose more than 80 thousand yuan.
"This situation caused panic in the market." According to the relevant person in charge of the association, many farmers without sows have poor anti-risk ability. They are eager to cash out and must sell their pigs as soon as possible.
Title: Pig Science (7th Edition)
Author: translated by Wang Aiguo.
Press: China Agricultural University Press.
Date of publication: June 2007