The increase of CPI in 28 places narrowed.
Eight people return to "1 times"
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the national CPI rose by 0. 1% month-on-month and 2. 1% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate dropped significantly from September, which was lower than market expectations for the fourth consecutive month.
According to the analysis of Sino-Singapore Jingwei, in June, the CPI of 3 1 province increased year-on-year, and there were 12 provinces with an increase higher or lower than the national level, and there were 10 and 16 provinces in September respectively. In addition, it is worth noting that only Xinjiang and Tibet have increased compared with September, and Yunnan is the same as last month. The year-on-year increase of CPI in 28 provinces was lower than last month, and the increase in 28 provinces was higher than last month.
Specifically, the growth rate of 12 provinces such as Xinjiang, Hubei, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guizhou and Hunan is higher than the national level, among which only Xinjiang is in the "3" era, reaching 7 last month; Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Fujian, Henan, Guangxi, and Gansu have the same increase as the whole country; The growth rate of 12 provinces such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jilin, Shandong, Shanghai, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Hebei, Beijing and Hainan is lower than the national level, and 8 provinces such as Hainan have returned to 1 times.
In addition, from the perspective of increase or decrease, Xinjiang ranked first, reaching 0.5 percentage points, and Hainan had the largest decline, with 1.7 percentage points.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that in June, the CPI of 5438+00 decreased rapidly year-on-year, except for the increase in the base in the same period last year, which mainly offset the impact of the increase in pork prices and lowered the increase in food CPI; At the same time, the downward trend of international oil prices in the early stage also led to a decline in domestic refined oil prices, and the year-on-year increase narrowed. In addition, the core CPI continues to be at a low level below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating that the current overall price situation is stable.
How to go about CPI in the future?
Since June 165438+ 10, the upward trend of pork prices has been effectively curbed, and institutions generally predict that the CPI growth rate in June 165438+ 10 will still be adjusted back to air conditioning.
Regarding the price of pork, Meng, chief analyst of Zhejiang Securities (60 1878) Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Research Institute, recently told Zhongxin Jingwei that 165438+ 10 pig prices will be significantly adjusted back. The main reason is the increase of short-term secondary fattening, and there is still a period of time before the traditional peak season of pork demand such as bacon and enema, and the support for the continuous rise of pig prices is weak.
"With the arrival of the peak consumption season in June 5438+February, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has greatly increased, and the pig price should remain high and volatile. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the amount of imported frozen meat. " Meng explained.
According to the macro report of Western Securities, consumption may still face some downward pressure due to the epidemic situation. Judging from the high-frequency data, the price of agricultural products (00006 1) has been falling continuously since June 1 1, and the CPI may remain low during the year.
Wang Qing said that the CPI in June was 5438+0 1.8% year-on-year, and there is no doubt that prices remained stable in the fourth quarter, under the prospect that pork prices basically peaked, vegetable prices dropped significantly year-on-year and weak consumption will continue to curb the increase of core CPI.
The macro research team of Bank of China Securities predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will still have room for decline in June 5438+065438+ 10, but from June 5438+February, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will increase significantly.
Xin Yang, an analyst at Hongta Securities (60 1236), believes that the CPI drop of 5438+00 in June indicates that the CPI may be the highest in September and the pig price may rise. However, under the guidance of policies, the upward curve is expected to be moderate, and the inflationary pressure will remain relatively low during the year.
According to the Chen Xing team of China and Thailand, the increase of pig prices has obviously slowed down since June 1 1, and the prices of vegetables and fruits have continued to fall. It is expected that CPI may not break through again during the year, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in June 1 1 may turn positive, and the year-on-year growth rate will fall back or fall below 2% at a high base. Looking forward to next year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the first quarter is relatively high, but it is difficult to exceed 3%.