Fund managers advocate investing in "value-oriented" stocks, US debt and holding US dollar cash on 20 19 to meet the expectation of global growth slowdown led by the United States, which may suspend interest rate hikes due to economic slowdown.
Investors said that with the weakening of fiscal stimulus and the impact of trade tensions, concerns about the trajectory of economic growth have led to financial market shocks, especially in the technology sector, and its profits will be hit next year.
Didier Saint-Georges, managing director of Carmignac Gestion, said at the Global Investment Outlook Summit 20 19 that investors should re-hold US dollars and defensive stocks, that is, stocks of companies with little business cycle correlation, such as public utilities and catering enterprises.
Investors said that if the economic growth slows down, the Federal Reserve may suspend the interest rate hike cycle, and the European Central Bank may withdraw its statement of raising interest rates in 20 19. The suspension of policy tightening will increase the attractiveness of longer-term bonds and stimulate the purchase of so-called "value stocks", whose prices are usually lower than the fundamentals of dividends, profits and income.
Pascal Blank said that he was adding American debt and high-interest stocks to his portfolio. In Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company, Blank oversees funds worth10.5 trillion euros (10.7 trillion dollars). He said:
"I think we have seen most of the upward pressure on interest rates and the dollar."
Funds that invest across asset classes should also cope with the global stock market decline in June 5438+00 and the pressure from the bond market. This year, 50-50 baskets of global stock markets and bonds may record their first annual losses since the 2008 financial crisis.
Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer of UBS Wealth Management, said that he now advised clients to allocate more funds to alternative assets such as real estate, because such assets do not fluctuate with the bond market and the stock market. He said:
"If inflation rises more than expected, bonds and the stock market may fall at the same time, and a balanced portfolio is not very resistant to this."
Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen, chief investment officer of NN Investment Partners, which manages assets of 240 billion euros (27 10 billion US dollars), said that from the decline in February and 10 month, it was technology rather than fundamental factors that drove the market. He said that he invested in the stocks of China and American technology companies, which suffered the most when the market fell. He said:
"We are more optimistic than pessimistic about next year's stock portfolio."
Market participants said that valuations are already high, so disappointing economic data may trigger a new round of selling. Stephen Jen, co-chief investment officer of Eurizon SLJ Capital, a London-based hedge fund, said his concerns include rising inflationary pressures in the United States, which in turn will prompt the Fed to respond. He said that if the global economy slows down next year, it will prompt investors to seek safety. He pointed out:
"US dollar cash is now a very effective safe-haven asset, and the performance of the US dollar has surpassed the stock market and bond market, which is the first time in many years."
(Article source: Golden Ten Data)