Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium on key real estate enterprises in Beijing, and the "three red lines" delineated by the meeting for real estate financing attracted widespread attention.
Excluding prepayment, the asset-liability ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the short-term cash debt ratio is less than 1 times. The "three red lines" refer directly to the financing life of housing enterprises, and all walks of life generally interpret the policy as "purchase restriction" of housing enterprises.
Under the new control policy, it is difficult for real estate enterprises to "buy while buying" willfully, and the unique scenery of the property market with bleak sales and hot development investment will come to an end.
Sales are affected and housing enterprises are under great pressure.
"Affected by the epidemic, the agency sales business was greatly affected in the first half of the year." Recently, the sales director of a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei real estate agency told reporters that the company's annual sales target may be difficult to achieve due to the epidemic. In order to make up the sales gap, the company is planning to "exchange price for quantity"
The data shows that from June to June, 65438, more than 90% of the housing enterprises in China failed to achieve the half-year sales target, including leading housing enterprises such as Vanke, Longhu, Country Garden and Sunac, and some sales targets did not even reach 30%.
"The house can't be sold, and it is difficult for housing companies to get a refund. If the house built can only be placed in your hands and cannot be traded, it is a pile of reinforced concrete. " The person in charge of a real estate company located in Dawang Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing told the reporter that the formulation of the sales plan of real estate enterprises is closely related to the demand for payment. When the sales target is not reached, the payment target is not completed. Once the repayment target is not completed, it will directly affect the solvency.
A person in charge of a commercial bank in Beijing told reporters: "Real estate development is achieved by financing. In the past, the real estate boom was because financing was easy, selling houses was easy, and the capital chain was circular. If there is a problem with payment now, the debt problem will be very fatal. "
For a long time, real estate is a capital-intensive industry, and high-debt development is an important means to achieve high growth. In recent years, real estate financing has been strictly controlled, and in the environment of shrinking financing channels, housing enterprises have increased the circulation of overseas debts. The data shows that from the second half of 20 19 to the beginning of this year, the scale of overseas bond issuance by real estate enterprises increased by 70.98% year-on-year. Among them, most of them are short-term debts, which ushered in the first peak after September. By June of 20021year, housing enterprises will accumulate debts due10.5 trillion yuan.
Housing enterprises are not worried about money, and regulation is tightened.
However, the huge pressure of the capital chain does not seem to affect the development investment of housing enterprises. Since March this year, with the gradual decline of the epidemic, the growth rate of real estate development investment has stopped falling and rebounded, and it has achieved five consecutive gains in July.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from June to July, the national real estate development investment was 7,532.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. In July, the monthly growth rate of real estate development investment reached 1 1.7%, and the growth rate continued to accelerate.
At the same time, the fiery real estate investment began to affect the market sales price, and house prices in some areas rose rapidly. In July, the price of new houses in Yinchuan continued to rise, with an increase of 2%, leading the increase for three consecutive months, and cities such as Tangshan also continued to maintain a large increase.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, said that on the demand side of economic recovery, real estate is the first area to recover, and some areas have once again experienced overheated investment. Under this circumstance, the tightening of regulatory policies has become inevitable, with the focus on the tightening of financing for housing enterprises.
On August 20th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium on key housing enterprises in Beijing to study how to further implement the long-term real estate mechanism. The meeting put forward quantitative management indicators of real estate financing, requiring real estate enterprises to exclude asset-liability ratio greater than 70%, net debt ratio greater than 100% and short-term cash debt ratio less than 1 times. According to the "stepping on the line" of real estate enterprises, it is divided into four grades: "red, orange, yellow and green", and differentiated debt scale management is implemented.
The logic of real estate is changing.
"The' three red lines' are a long-term mechanism for financing management of real estate enterprises." Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that this move not only ensured the reasonable financing demand, but also controlled the scale of funds entering the property market and prevented the property market from becoming a "grey rhinoceros" of financial risks.
Under the "three red lines" rule of financing management, it is difficult for subsequent real estate enterprises to expand their business scale by borrowing, and the repayment of some debts depends on sales. It is widely expected that the new financing rules will accelerate the real estate sales, and some enterprises under great pressure to meet the standards may cut prices and promote sales.
Two weeks after the "three red lines" were delineated, on September 6th, Evergrande suddenly announced that it had achieved the monthly sales target of "Golden September, Silver and Ten" of 654.38+000 billion yuan, and also launched a series of promotional activities such as a 30% discount on the national property market. According to another source, Country Garden is also considering offering greater purchase concessions to speed up the sales of real estate. Some insiders believe that leading real estate enterprises take the lead in price reduction and promotion, aiming to seize market share and reduce debt ratio in the context of tightening financing.
Some market institutions have sorted out the financial data of 50 high-selling housing enterprises, and only 12 housing enterprises meet the requirements of the three standards. There are 14 housing enterprises that step on one line, 14 housing enterprises that cross two red lines at the same time, and 14 housing enterprises that step on three red lines at the same time. Although the specific implementation date of the "three red lines" has not been clear, considering the current cold real estate sales and the huge debt scale of housing enterprises, the market generally believes that there is not much time left for housing enterprises.
"For a long time in the past, real estate was associated with wealth. Whether it is a property buyer or a developer, there are many cases in which wealth has increased sharply because of real estate. Because the market expectation is better, the house is not for sale, and the housing enterprises are not worried about financing. But in the past two years, the logic of real estate has changed. " Ding Zuyu, CEO of Yiju Enterprise Group, said that the concept of "housing and not speculation" has formed awareness in the market, and funds will not flood into real estate again.