"How come these trees are bare so quickly?" 165438+1In late October, a person engaged in cash loans said with emotion in the car.
Winter in Beijing always comes so suddenly. Accompanied by the four-level gale of Siberian cold air, the leaves of plane trees with green branches were blown everywhere, and the scene of depression was like a cash loan enterprise that was also hit hard.
This time, the boots of supervision quickly landed.
This means that 20 small loan companies, including Jingdong Finance, Suning Shang Yun, Kunlun Wan Wei, etc., which have just been approved for establishment, will suspend their establishment and opening. For the existing more than 2,000 cash loans, the hard days have officially begun.
This 302 1 word document will soon make the 1 trillion cash loan market enter a cold winter. A big wave washes the sand, and it begins.
A difficult transition
"We are ok now, no big deal. The company is still quite strong, and the transformation is easy. Just wait for the policy to see the situation. " The aforementioned cash lenders said.
In fact, a few days after the news of the suspension of issuing new licenses came out, they began to consider the transformation before the introduction of specific regulatory policies. As for the specific direction of the transformation, he did not disclose it.
At present, there are not a few cash loan enterprises thinking about the direction of transformation.
"But the technical threshold of blockchain is very high, so the transformation is quite difficult." The director said with emotion.
Therefore, the executives of a licensed company are also considering transformation. In his cognition, there are two ways to transform cash loan enterprises: one is to choose to cooperate with Internet platforms with traffic scenarios, which can greatly reduce the cost of obtaining customers and thus reduce interest rates; The second is to transform into a relatively large and long-term product.
These two transformation methods seem to have been put into practice by some enterprises. A typical case is a fun shop that is regarded as a "weather vane" by the industry.
There are indications that fun shops are trying to transform into products with relatively large value and long term, and the online traffic obtained from Alipay will be introduced offline.
165438+1In mid-October, Fun Store launched the auto consumption finance business named "Dabai Auto Staging Platform", and its cash loan platform was used to stage the borrower's future loan amount, and then it was divided into two parts: the auto loan amount of 3.34438 billion yuan and the previous personal credit line.
In addition, the information of the recruitment platform shows that the fun store is recruiting online sales consultants. The main responsibility of this position is to introduce online traffic into offline stores, and the assessment indicators are customer arrival rate, arrival rate and transaction rate. Accordingly, the fun store may intentionally transfer the loan business to the offline.
According to the analysis of online loan house, from the perspective of automobile staging products, fun shops need to establish new teams and develop new channels to acquire potential customers, and their business models will also change accordingly.
Wait for a rate cut
Compared with the difficult transformation, interest rate cuts may be the easiest way for cash lending platforms to embrace supervision at this stage.
At present, at least three cash lending companies in the market cut interest rates, and some platforms suspended lending.
165438+1In mid-October, a cash loan company claimed to have received the notice of cooperation termination from Ant Financial. In this regard, Ant Financial said that in the investigation, it was found that individual merchants had various problems such as fees exceeding the statutory protection interest rate, improper collection, and failure to perform as agreed, so cooperation was suspended. On the 23rd, Alipay asked its partners to reduce the comprehensive interest rate to below 24%.
Subsequently, the fun store announced that from165438+1October 30, the maximum annual interest rate of all transactions completed through Alipay's consumer interface will not exceed 24%. Previously, the prospectus of the fun store showed that after April, the comprehensive annualized interest rate of its platform products was below 36%. After the release of 65438+February 1 Notice, the store official said that it would fully support the solution.
Before this adjustment, the lending cycle of Zhang Zhongfu's cash loan product "lightning loan" was 2 1 day. According to the first consumer finance test, a loan of 3,000 yuan needs to pay interest of 204 yuan, that is, the interest rate is 6.8%, which is equivalent to the annualized interest rate of 1 18. 19%.
After adjustment, lightning loans are divided into 50-day loans and 60-day loans, and the corresponding comprehensive interest rates are 4.93% and 5.9 1% respectively, which are 35.99% and 35.92% respectively when converted into adults. This means that in order to barely get stuck under the 36% red line, the interest rate of Zhangzhongjinfu has been lowered by nearly 70%.
165438+1On October 7th, Zhongxin Holdings, a listed company controlled by Jin Fu, just released its third-quarter financial report. Among them, in the first three quarters, Zhang Zhongjinfu's total matching transaction volume exceeded 40 billion yuan, with an income of about 2.775 billion yuan and an average monthly income of 325 million yuan. However, most of the income of cash loans comes from the service fees charged to borrowers. I don't know how much profit I have left in my hand because the interest rate has fallen so sharply.
After taking charge of public financial services, on June 27th, Jiufu Group's 165438+ Jiufu Dingdang App also announced that it would adjust the comprehensive annualized borrowing cost of its 30-day small short-term cash loan business to below 36%.
Next, Zhang Jinfu and Jiufu will face another problem. According to the requirements in the Notice, lightning loans and Jiufu Dingdang are cash loans without consumption scenes and need to be rectified within the prescribed time limit.
In addition to the cash loan platform, there are also fund suppliers who respond quickly, among which banks are the most sensitive.
"It is said that after the license suspension document was issued, the three investors in charge of public financial services suspended their cooperation." Recently, people close to Jinyi revealed to Caijing.
The insider in charge of Zhongjinfu denied the news: "I have confirmed with my colleagues in charge of funds that no partners have stopped cooperating now. If you dock, you will not cooperate. "
Li Ke (pseudonym), a senior industry observer, told AI Finance & Economics: "From my contact, banks have been particularly cautious about cash loans." Last week, the staff of the head office of a listed bank revealed that its bank had suspended access to all external cash loan assets and only accepted phased assets.
; A city commercial bank also said that it stopped adding cash loan assets cooperation a few months ago, "afraid to touch, afraid of supervision."
The fetus dies in the womb-a plan/plot/scheme is stillborn.
Outside the financial industry, there are listed companies that are more sensitive than banks.
According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, there are 27 listed companies planning to set up microfinance business; In the past month alone, at least eight listed companies, such as Renhe Pharmaceutical, Minsheng Jinke, Hengshunzhong, etc., announced their plans to set up, be approved to set up or increase their capital.
However, on the second day after the suspension of license documents, two listed companies announced that they would stop participating in the establishment of online small loan companies.
165438+1On the evening of October 22nd, Busen announced that, after full discussion by the company's management, considering the pressure on the company's performance caused by the capital cost that may be brought by the subsequent paid-in capital contribution, the company intends to terminate its participation in initiating the establishment of an online small loan company.
On February 24th this year, Busen Company reviewed and approved the proposal of establishing Xi Anxinghe Network Microfinance Co., Ltd. in Xi. At that time, the estimated registered capital was 400 million yuan.
Also on the evening of the 22nd, Xinguodu also announced that in response to urgent documents, the company decided to terminate the establishment of Hainan Xinguodu Microfinance Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, and stressed that there was no substantial progress in this matter.
For these listed companies, stillbirth may be the best outcome. If it is terminated suddenly after its establishment, the handling of labor costs and sunk costs will cause a lot of burdens.
The 20 17 semi-annual report of Mingtai Aluminum, a listed A-share company, shows that gongyi city Yi Rui Microfinance Co., Ltd., which holds 65% of the shares, lost1472,800 yuan in the first half of this year. Due to poor performance, the board of directors of the company passed a resolution, and the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary Henan Tebangte International Trade Co., Ltd. decided to transfer all the shares of gongyi city Yi Rui Microfinance Co., Ltd.
rise to the occasion
In contrast, before the announcement of February 1 65438, some listed companies decided to try to keep their small loan companies going.
According to the data, the board of directors of Du Zhi Co., Ltd. passed the proposal of investing in the establishment of an Internet small loan company in June, and received the notice of Yuexiu Financial Bureau agreeing to set up a small loan company on September 2 1.
Du Zhi stocks are facing such difficulties, perhaps because they don't want to give up cash loans as a cash cow. From 10, many enterprises, such as fun shops, credit, auction loans and so on. , all listed together, exposing the industry's super earning power and extremely high gross profit margin to the sun. Among them, the gross profit margin of fun shops exceeds 80%, and the gross profit margin of cash loan business in the first half of this year is as high as 97. 12%, which is comparable to Maotai.
It is worth noting that the acquisition cost given in 2345 is169 million yuan, and the valuation of small loan companies can be calculated to be about1127 million yuan.
Hongte Precision, also a A-share listed company, has an annual net profit of 50 million yuan. In March of this year, Hongte Precision officially set foot in cash loans. The subsequent financial report made people stunned.
The affiliated subsidiaries realized operating income of 654.38+0.33 billion yuan and net profit of 654.38+0.5293 million yuan within three months of opening; They account for 15% of the company's revenue and 23% of its net profit. This directly boosted the company's revenue growth of 27. 13% and net profit growth of 79.04%. Half a year after its opening, the subsidiary achieved a revenue of 747 million yuan, accounting for 39% of the company's total revenue, driving a year-on-year increase of 79.07%; Realized a net profit of 227 million yuan, accounting for 80.92% of the company's net profit, driving a year-on-year increase of 772.29%.
Before the third quarter financial report was officially announced, the higher performance forecast also made Hongte Precision's closing price increase deviate from the valuation by more than 20% for three consecutive trading days, and suspended trading after the direct daily limit of 65438+1October 27th. After selling the shares, a vice president of the company earned at least 6.5438+million.
Nirvana _ rebirth?
After Ant Financial suspended its cooperation with some cash lending companies, Tian Jie, an analyst at Analysys, pointed out that this would speed up the elimination of some cash lending institutions without licenses and risk control capabilities, but this may not promote the industry to change to compliance, because stricter supervision and reduced risk control capabilities will only make some cash lending companies difficult to operate and it is difficult for them to reverse this situation. After that, there may be a wave of mergers and acquisitions or bankruptcy of cash lending institutions.
However, due to the particularity of the cash loan industry, the tide of bankruptcy may trigger a series of risks.
In a related report released a few days ago, the National Internet Financial Security Technical Expert Committee predicted that there are currently nearly 2 million cash borrowers with multi-position loans (that is, one person borrows from two or more platforms within one month), accounting for about 20%; Among them, nearly 500,000 borrowers continuously borrowed more than 10 platform within one month, accounting for about 5%.
For the systemic risks that may be caused by long-term lending, the regulatory authorities obviously attach great importance to it. The notice specifically pointed out that cash lending companies should guard against long-term lending.
Therefore, the most direct risk that may be brought about by the shutdown tide is that "some long-term debt users have no new money to repay their old debts, resulting in bad debts", a senior forecast of a mutual gold enterprise. Moreover, "this kind of bad debt is contagious, which will eventually form a' domino effect' and produce a series of bad debts in the industry."
Continuous observation of the history of microfinance also puts forward similar views. He believes that the massive withdrawal of "Pickup Man" will form a vicious circle in the industry. The real non-performing rate of cash loan industry will appear, and the winter of the industry may be more terrible than expected-the non-performing rate will rise rapidly, the risk model will all fail, and the loan balance will drop rapidly.
At that time, it might be mud and sand.
Once such a large-scale bad debt occurs in the industry, how can individual investors bear it? Will it cause greater adverse effects in the whole society? We don't know.
For the cash loan platform, surviving may be the first consideration. It is understood that at present, cash loan enterprises in the industry have closed down and the operation departments of related companies have been dissolved, but at least several million funds have not been settled, and suppliers are ready to come to collect debts.
"Only the cash loan platform with good user quality and less long-term borrowing will be less affected. Some leading platforms will also be more viable, because they have done it early, accumulated profits against risks, and continuously optimized product portfolios and users, such as launching long-term cash installments, with better asset quality. " Li ke analyzed.
The above-mentioned mutual fund enterprise executives also agree with Ke Li's point of view. "Those relatively new cash loan enterprises may be afraid to lend money because of the high risk of new customers, and will only become old customers, so that their scale will continue to shrink, eventually leading to enterprises not making big money and slowly withdrawing."
It is said that left is king. However, can an industry composed only of leftovers be reborn?
This article comes from AI Finance.
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