Talking about the development trend of new energy vehicles, he shared three viewpoints. First of all, the large-scale automobile consumption demand in China makes it more and more urgent for China to develop new energy vehicles; Secondly, driven by the three major policies, new energy vehicles have achieved spurt growth for five consecutive years, and at the same time, there have been two positive changes on the consumer side; Third, in the future, new energy vehicles will continue to move forward in fluctuations, and will gradually show their comparative advantages after 2025.
"Our new energy vehicles have achieved rapid development under the impetus of the three major policies of subsidies, preferential licenses and direct allocation of resources by the government." Xu Changming introduced, "20 14 is called the first year of new energy vehicles. After several years of rapid development, from 1 to April this year, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 390,000, an increase of 80%. This is a rapid development. "
Xu Changming believes that in the long run, long-term new energy vehicles may have more advantages. The first change is to break through the new battery system. The energy density of liquid batteries is increasing, and the safety is a big hidden danger. Fixed battery can solve the problems of energy density, charging speed and safety at the same time. After commercialization, it will be a great promotion to new energy vehicles. Secondly, the functions carried by cars may change. At present, the new energy vehicles are mainly vehicles. The future car is vehicle+advanced intelligent mobile terminal. The third change is that autonomous driving will also be an important driving force for our future development.
"After five years of rapid development, the future prospects are promising, but there may be fluctuations, and new energy vehicles will move forward in fluctuations." Xu Changming said.
The following is the speech of Mr. Xu Changming, Deputy Director of the National Information Center:
Dear guests, good morning! I am very happy to share with you my views on the development trend of new energy vehicles. Today I want to share three sentences with you:
The large-scale automobile consumption demand in China makes it more and more urgent for China to develop new energy vehicles.
Driven by the three major policies, new energy vehicles have achieved spurt growth for five consecutive years, and at the same time, there have been two positive changes in the consumption side. I will share these data with you later.
In the future, new energy vehicles will continue to move forward in fluctuations, and will gradually show their comparative advantages after 2025.
The large-scale automobile consumption demand in China makes it more and more urgent for China to develop new energy vehicles.
The chart below shows the annual changes of car ownership and car ownership per thousand people in China. From the figure, we can see that by 20 17, the number of cars in China has reached 2100000, and the number of cars per thousand people has reached 150.
With the rapid development of ownership, the dependence on oil imports has gradually increased. The data shows that for every100t of oil we consume, 68.7% is imported. So, how much will we have in the future? We have two cars here, one is the total population, and the other is how many cars a person has. The multiplication of the two is the total number of cars in the future. Judging from the countries with saturated car ownership, most countries have 600 cars per thousand people.
Can our country achieve it? It depends on the number of cars owned by thousands of people, and the decisive factor is determined by the population density of cities in China.
The abscissa of the above figure represents the population density of each city, and the ordinate represents the number of cars with thousands of people in each city. I put Japanese and American cities together. Orange is a city in Japan, and blue is an American city. Japan has a high population density, while the United States has a relatively low population density. The higher the population density, the higher the number of thousands of people. The same is true in Europe.
Similarly, the number of cities in each district of each city also depends on the population density. The above picture reflects the relationship between the population density and the number of cars with 1,000 people in Greater new york. The darker the color, the higher the density, the lighter the color and the lower the density. It is also an inverse relationship.
Generally speaking, China's population density is 143 people/km2, but 94% of the population is mainly concentrated in 43% of the land east of Tengchong-Heihe line, so the actual population density is about 300 people/km2. This density is similar to that in Europe. Britain, Italy and Germany basically have 300 people per square kilometer. Since population density is the decisive factor, it can reach this level in theory. But in fact, after comprehensive evaluation, we found that we can't reach the level of 600 vehicles per thousand people.
This is because our population is more concentrated in big cities. The population of our provincial capital adds up to 300 million, and the high-density areas of the provincial capital add up to 1 100 million. If the population density is too high, it may not reach the number of thousands. According to the level of automobile saturation point in developed countries, our car ownership should be around 450 cars per thousand people, and many cities with restricted purchases may only have 400 cars per thousand people.
In 20 16, the number of cars in China was1800,000, and the oil consumption was 580 million tons. In the future, the number of cars will reach 600 million, which will definitely be a major test for the consumption of oil. The solution is actually a new energy vehicle or an energy-saving vehicle. If we have 600 million vehicles in the future, new energy vehicles account for 20%, 65.438+0.2 billion vehicles, and there are 480 million fuel vehicles left, considering that the annual mileage of our country's automobiles is a little lower than that of the United States. Add up the hybrids of all the cars, and basically the problem is solved. On the other hand, I have always advocated the development of new energy vehicles, mainly considering the demand for oil. This is from the perspective of oil, such a large consumer demand must be solved by some new energy vehicles. Of course, it is unrealistic for us to say that all new energy sources are used. 20% is ideal, and 30% of new energy vehicles have almost reached the upper limit.
Driven by the three major policies, new energy vehicles have achieved spurt growth for five consecutive years, and at the same time, there have been two positive changes in the consumption side.
The so-called three major policies, the first is subsidies, and the second is concessions for the completion of licenses; The third is the resources directly allocated by the government, such as taxis, private cars, logistics vehicles, buses, etc., which can be controlled through licenses. These three policies have brought about rapid development in the past few years. 20 14 years, we call it the first year of new energy vehicles, and it has developed rapidly for several consecutive years. From June to April this year, 393,000 new energy vehicles were sold, an increase of 80% year-on-year. This is a rapid development.
The first positive change is that the consumer has changed from a unit user to a private user. It used to be bought by companies, but now it is mainly bought by private people. Look at the picture. Of the consumption of 20 15 new energy vehicles, 57.4% were bought by companies, and only 42.6% were bought by private individuals. By 20 18, the unit decreased by 34. 1%, while private car purchase increased by 64.9%.
The second positive change is that the consumption area is rapidly expanding from restricted cities to non-restricted cities. Before 20 16, these private cars were mainly sold to six restricted cities. Now? 60% was sold to non-restricted cities. In the future development of new energy vehicles, it is impossible to solve the problem only by restricting purchases in cities. Add up to only 2 million such cars a year, so it is a change to rely on non-restriction in the future.
In the future, new energy vehicles will continue to move forward in fluctuations, and will gradually show their comparative advantages after 2025.
In the future development, I think new energy vehicles are moving forward in fluctuations. It was originally predicted that it would continue to maintain rapid growth before 2020, but I didn't expect the subsidy policy to retreat so quickly. This period of time should be moving forward in fluctuations, and this year is fluctuations. The sales of new energy vehicles this year should add up to almost the same as last year. However, after two or three years, it will maintain a high growth rate. Because of the double-point subsidy, the license plate will continue to exist, and the problems of inconvenient charging and high battery cost will be basically alleviated.
In the long run, there may be several important changes in new energy vehicles.
The first change: the new battery system needs to break through. At present, all batteries are lithium batteries, which are liquid. There will be solid batteries in the next step, which can solve the safety problem when the energy density is relatively high. According to the current lithium battery, one kilogram is 170 watt-hour, and it is about 6 kilograms at a time. In the future, if we put more than 50 kWh of electricity in it, the battery will be too heavy. But now, if the energy density is continuously improved by using liquid batteries, safety is a big hidden danger. Solid state batteries can solve this problem. As far as we know, this battery can be commercialized in 2025. After this kind of battery comes out, it will be a great promotion for our new energy vehicles.
The second change: the function carried by the car may change. At present, new energy vehicles are mainly vehicles, and the future vehicles are vehicles+advanced intelligent mobile terminals. In this case, advanced intelligent mobile terminals, such as mobile phones and our smart phones, require high battery capacity. Traditional batteries can only be used for a week, or a little longer, so it's no problem to call. With so much intelligence, the battery must be enlarged and the car must be enlarged. Is there a demand for smart mobile terminals? We elderly people have no obvious demand for this, but after 00 and 90, the demand for this is very obvious. As far as we know, in 20 17, we said that 2 1.8% people bought cars after 00, but what will happen in 2027 ten years later? 7.2% after 00, and 4 1.8% after 90. These people have a high demand for new energy vehicles. These people are new users and have needs, which is another kind of promotion.
The third change: with the development of autonomous driving technology, electric vehicles will add an important use scene and pusher. I have talked with many technical experts, and they said that traditional cars can also drive automatically, but it is difficult, while new energy vehicles are more convenient and easier to solve. It's basically like this. Therefore, at present, the vast majority of electric vehicles of major companies use electric vehicles to solve the intelligent problem.
PricewaterhouseCoopers made a prediction that by 2030, the total car sales in the United States, Europe and China will reach 82 million. Among them, L5 can sell 6.5438+0.2 million vehicles and L4 can sell 28 million vehicles. L5 is not necessarily estimated, but L4 and L3 cars are very likely. Therefore, the future will be an important driving force for future development and an important test for us.
That's all I want to share with you. In a word, we have firm confidence that our car ownership will reach 600 million in the future. Although automobile consumption has declined in the past two years, I think it is temporary. Once the economy stabilizes, car sales will continue to move forward, and the annual consumer demand should reach 40 million. Such a large consumption demand and possession can not be solved by traditional cars alone, and the problem of energy demand can only be solved by matching new energy vehicles.
Our new energy vehicles have developed rapidly for five consecutive years, and the future prospects are promising, but there may be fluctuations and progress in the fluctuations. That's all I want to share with you. Thank you!