With the arrival of 2023, the transaction volume of real estate has been very hot, but even so, the inventory of real estate is still very large, but in fourth-tier cities, consumer demand still cannot meet the real estate market in fourth-tier cities. At present, the property prices in fourth-tier cities are already in a gloomy period, but what will be the trend of property prices in fourth-tier cities in the next year?
One of the housing price trends in fourth-tier cities in 2023;
At present, the business tax period of second-hand housing transactions in China has changed from 5 years to 2 years now. Although the policy has been released, the taxes and fees in fourth-tier cities still make people feel heavier for buyers. At present, in order to get rid of inventory and reduce the basic purchase cost of consumers, it is hoped that the real estate tax and business tax will be reduced in the coming year.
The second trend of housing prices in fourth-tier cities in 2023;
Judging from the performance in the past few years, because the inflow population of fourth-tier cities has decreased significantly, and there are many vacant houses in fourth-tier cities, which is the pressure of high inventory pressure. Therefore, for fourth-tier cities, further price reduction is the only way for developers to take in 2023. Moreover, from the perspective of urban construction, solving the real estate inventory pressure in fourth-tier cities will solve a very important problem. However, if we want to solve the inventory pressure, we should start with the purchase of houses in the process of rural population. In order to enable people to buy houses in cities, house prices in fourth-tier cities will continue to slump in 2023.
Forecast of house price trend in 2023: house prices will not fall! Third-and fourth-tier cities may improve
First, house prices will not fall in 2023, and new house sales are expected to exceed market expectations again.
Despite the intervention of administrative measures, the average performance of new home sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2023 will be flat. However, according to the analysis of CICC Securities Research, under the influence of three major driving factors, house prices will remain stable in the first half of 2023, and will return to the upward trend in the second half. Moreover, the sales of new houses will increase in the second half of the year, which is expected to exceed market expectations again.
The three main factors driving the rise in housing prices are:
1, the developer has abundant funds. It is estimated that 5.5 trillion yuan of external funds will flow into the real estate market in 2023. Among the 5.5 trillion external funds, the funds from bank wealth management products will increase substantially this year, and it is estimated that the annual contribution will be 4 trillion (accounting for over 70%), which will become an important source of external funds for developers and provide sufficient funds for developers to take land and other activities.
In addition, the research of CICC Securities predicts that the total land transfer fee will be about 4 trillion yuan in 2023, and the money in the hands of developers is more than enough.
2. High land prices stimulate developers' willingness to raise prices. At the end of 2023, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities sold a number of high-priced land. In order to protect the profit rate, the high land cost and significant premium in 2023 will stimulate developers' willingness to raise prices. ? 3. It is difficult to fundamentally solve the supply gap between first-tier cities and core second-tier cities in the short term. Although the shortage of supply in first-and second-tier cities has been improved to some extent, it is difficult to completely solve it, so the pressure of rising house prices still exists.
Second, the relationship between urban supply and demand has improved, but it will not be fundamentally reversed.
Combined with the framework of the central government's "policy for cities", CICC studied and analyzed the supply and demand situation of 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2023 to 2025. According to the analysis of the report, the relationship between supply and demand at the city level will improve to some extent in the short term in 2023, but it will not be completely reversed. In other words, the supply gap in hot cities with tightened policies at the end of 2023 will continue to exist, while the problem of oversupply in third-and fourth-tier cities is difficult to fundamentally solve, especially in northwest and northeast China. Therefore, with the weakening of regulatory policies, first-and second-tier cities are expected to overtake third-and fourth-tier cities in the second half of 2023.
Third, the narrowing of mortgage spreads will not have a substantial impact on the real estate market.
According to the research forecast of CICC, the total amount of new housing loans will reach 5.5 trillion yuan in 2023 (down 15% year-on-year).
Under this support, the national new house sales will reach 9.4 trillion yuan (up 4% year-on-year), which is better than the current market expectation.
Based on the forecast market situation of 5.5 trillion new housing loans and 9.4 trillion new housing sales, it is assumed that the national new loans (net) will be 13.8 trillion in 2023, 12. 1 trillion in 2023 (actual) and/kloc-0 in 2023.
In addition, CICC also simulated optimistic and pessimistic scenarios:
Optimistic scenario: the total amount of new housing loans is 7.3 trillion, and the new housing sales are 12.6 trillion. New housing loans (net) accounted for 40% of the national new loans (net), and the proportion was the same as in 2023.
Pessimistic scenario: the total amount of new housing loans is 4. 1 trillion, and the new housing sales are 7. 1 trillion. New housing loans (net) accounted for 18% of the national new loans (net), and the proportion was the same as 20 10 (policy tightening period). Therefore, the narrowing of mortgage spreads will not have a substantial impact on the real estate market.
Fourth, there will be no major policy adjustments in the short term.
According to the research data of CICC, the possibility of further upgrading of policy control measures in the short term is very low. The purpose of policy regulation in 2023 is to "control the first line and stabilize the second line". Only when the existing measures do not have the expected effect will further policies be introduced, which is unlikely at present.
At present, generally speaking, the main problem facing fourth-tier cities is the problem of high inventory pressure, which also leads to the reduction of land supply in fourth-tier cities. Therefore, under such circumstances, some more powerful enterprises will be more optimistic about the development of first-and second-tier cities. As a result, the transaction volume of residential land in fourth-tier cities will continue to run at a low level, so from a macro perspective, the housing prices in fourth-tier cities will remain at a low level in 2023.