The fifth largest bank in America went bankrupt.

Financial turmoil refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions) in a country or several countries and regions. Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil. Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly taken the form of mixed crisis.

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Lehman Brothers, a financial giant with a history of more than 1.50 years, finally failed in this stormy season and ended up filing for bankruptcy, which made Chinese people reassess the "subprime mortgage crisis" on the other side of the ocean. Affected by this incident, China Bank shares fell sharply yesterday, and China Merchants Bank was among them. Today, China Merchants Bank announced that it holds Lehman Brothers bonds. Even if all bonds lose money, it will only affect the earnings per share of 0.0324 yuan/share, with little substantial impact. However, it remains to be seen whether psychologically fragile investors will treat it rationally.

"Lehman Brothers is facing bankruptcy!" -The impact of this news on global stock markets can be described as immediate, but its impact may just begin to appear!

After Huaan Fund Company announced yesterday that its Huaan International Allocation Fund was affected by Lehman Brothers, China Merchants Bank (600036, closing price 16.07 yuan) also announced that it was affected by Lehman Brothers today. According to the announcement, the company holds bonds issued by Lehman Brothers in the United States, amounting to $70 million.

Insiders pointed out that in the face of yesterday's orderly limit of bank stocks, the release of this unfavorable news may be amplified by the market.

Limited substantive impact

Today, China Merchants Bank announced that, as of the announcement date, the company had a $70 million bond exposure issued by Lehman Brothers. Among them, the senior bond is USD 60 million and the subordinated bond is USD 65.438+million. At the same time, the announcement said that the company will evaluate the risks of the above bonds and extract the corresponding impairment reserves according to the principle of prudence.

US$ 70 million-converted into RMB, equivalent to about RMB 477 million. How much impact will this figure have on China Merchants Bank?

If China Merchants Bank impairs the bonds issued by Lehman Brothers by 10%, the loss will be 47.7 million yuan. According to the total share capital of China Merchants Bank of 65.438+04.707 billion shares, the impact on earnings per share will be only 0.0032 yuan/share;

If China Merchants Bank sets aside 50% bad debt reserve for US$ 70 million, the impact on earnings per share is only 0.05438 yuan+0.62 yuan.

Even in the worst case, if all the bad debts of $70 million are accrued, the impact will only be 0.0324 yuan/share, which is obviously quite small compared with the earnings per share of China Merchants Bank in the middle of this year, 0.9 yuan.

Therefore, national securities analysts believe that although China Merchants Bank has not made corresponding impairment provision for the bonds held by Lehman Brothers, even if this incident is the worst, the substantial impact on China Merchants Bank is quite limited.

The market may overreact.

"The substantial impact is limited!" This is the industry's evaluation of China Merchants Bank's involvement in Lehman Brothers, but will the market treat it rationally?