In view of the gradual opening up of the registration system, the normalization of new shares breaking, and the breaking of domestic new shares, I decided to launch a series of required reading for new shares to analyze and judge the subscription value of new shares.
This part of the study started with 202 1, 1 1. Up to now, more than 100 new shares have been analyzed, and the overall statistical accuracy rate is over 90%. However, compared with listed companies, new shares are more susceptible to many factors, and the data verification cycle is still short, so there will be certain risks.
So what I can guarantee is that I will tell you how I analyze it and I will follow this plan. What I can't promise is that I won't break it.
Element 1: comparable industries and enterprises.
Look at the business scope of the enterprise, judge the subordinate industries, and choose comparable companies with greater similarity. It is of course the most convenient to have ready-made things.
Factor 2: issue price and issue price-earnings ratio.
Referring to the recent breaking situation, the higher the stock price, the greater the risk of breaking. This factor is not very important.
Under the registration system, IPO pricing and valuation tend to be more market-oriented, and the value of any enterprise can not get rid of industry fundamentals and enterprise fundamentals, so the price-earnings ratio is an absolute key factor in IPO analysis.
Excellent enterprises can indeed get higher valuation than the industry because of higher growth than the industry, so the third step of screening is growth.
Element 3: performance.
Did the company's past revenue and profit increase steadily or decrease year by year? Whether there are big fluctuations, if there are big fluctuations, we should focus on whether there is any suspicion of adjusting the statements for listing and valuation.
Factor 4: Market sentiment.
Undeniably, in addition to fundamentals, emotional aspects are also very important in IPO, especially some popular track funds, so this part of the analysis will be comprehensively considered and appropriately increased. Of course, everything must proceed from the fundamentals.
Let's talk about the official content first.
Basic information of enterprise:
Chengdu Lihang Technology Co., Ltd., the full name of Chengdu Lihang Technology Co., Ltd., is mainly engaged in supporting products and services related to military aircraft and civil aircraft. Mainly in the production, maintenance and support of aircraft, it is an enterprise integrating national defense and civil technology, specializing in research and development; Design, manufacture and sell aircraft ground support equipment, aircraft test and inspection equipment, aircraft processing equipment, aircraft parts processing and aircraft parts assembly.
At present, our main products are aircraft ground support equipment, aircraft test and inspection equipment, aircraft process equipment, aircraft parts processing and assembly. The company's main products are classified as follows:
Aircraft ground support equipment mainly includes bomb hanging vehicle, engine installation vehicle, engine transport vehicle, APU installation vehicle, jack and hydraulic jack control box. The above products are widely used in China's air force, navy and new generation fighters, bombers and transport aircraft.
Aircraft test and inspection equipment is customized for customers. We design, develop and produce aircraft test and inspection equipment, such as electromechanical control and management computer processing system, comprehensive inspection vehicle, ground command vehicle, data processing vehicle and other products.
Aircraft process equipment mainly includes traditional process equipment and digital assembly process equipment matched with aircraft assembly production line.
The processing of aircraft parts mainly includes the processing of fuselage parts such as leading edge ribs, middle wing ribs, rocker arms, joints, partitions, beams, girders, cover plates and thin-walled parts.
Aircraft parts assembly mainly includes wings, tails, follow-up doors and other parts of various military and civil aircraft.
Look down on more traditional military enterprises.
The main customers are subordinate units of the aviation industry, and the end users are mainly the military.
The secondary industry corresponding to Shenwan is Aviation Equipment II, and the comparable listed companies are Elda (300696), Xinyan (300 159), Lijun (00265 1), Triangle Defense (300775) and Guanglian Aviation (300900).
Problem situation:
Underwritten by Huaxi Securities, the current market value of the company is165438+37 million yuan, the newly issued market value is 380 million yuan, and the issue price is 19.70 yuan.
Compared with aviation equipment industry, PE-TTM is 98.9 1x, Aileda PE-TTM is 54.39x, Xinyan PE-TTM is -2.28x, Lijun PE-TTM is 44.24x, triangle defense PE-TTM is 67.37x and Guanglian Aviation PE-TTM is 58.67x.
Performance:
It is estimated that the operating income in the first quarter of 2023 will be 30193,700 yuan to 31263,700 yuan, which is 0/%to 157.53% higher than that in the same period of last year.
The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 2,302,200 yuan to 2,829,200 yuan, compared with a loss of 4,366,800 yuan in the same period of last year;
After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 2,302,200 yuan to 2,829,200 yuan, compared with a loss of 4,465,438.0+0,570 yuan in the same period of last year.
In 20021year, the company realized operating income of RMB 309,865,438+RMB 7700, up by 5.73% year-on-year;
After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 70,468,800 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.99%.
In 2020, the operating income was 29303 1.5 million yuan, 20 19 was 237,520,400 yuan, and 20 18 was 258,888,800 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.39%.
In 2020, the non-attributable net profit was deducted 67 120700 yuan, in 20 19, 65938700 yuan, and in 20 18, 69224800 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of-1.53%.
Looking at 20 18-2020 first, the revenue growth is weak, while the profit is directly negative. 202 1, revenue and profit growth were also single digits, and then exploded in the first quarter of 2023. As for the relevant explanation, I didn't see it.
In terms of specific gross profit margin, from 20 18 to 202 1-June, the gross profit margin of main business was 48.35%, 53.70%, 49.39% and 9.77% respectively, which was basically stable except for the gross profit margin of 20 19. Reference to the prospectus is mainly due to the changes in the income structure of sub-products.
Compared with peers,
Because the product structure is very different, the comparability is not great.
From the company's fundamentals, it is quite satisfactory. The performance is slightly worse, and the gross profit margin is ok. It belongs to the general enterprises in the military industry.
Judging from the issue situation, the main board of Shanghai Stock Exchange has low issue price, low market profit and low PE-TTM, and then there are not many shares issued.
Finally, the summary is as follows: General plus general, just overlay the motherboard.
Purchase suggestion: recommended purchase, my operation: purchase.
Recommended subscription, fundamentals and issuance are good, and the probability of breaking is small.
Cautious subscription, fundamental or issue problems, 50% break probability.
Abandoning the subscription, there are big problems in fundamentals or issuance, and the probability of breaking is high.
Related Q&A: How much can I earn by signing a contract with Lihang Technology? This depends on how much you bought and what the opening price is! If the opening price goes up, you will earn, and some will fall below the issue price, then you will lose! Related Q&A: What is innovation? Is this really sure? Playing new shares refers to the subscription of new shares. Generally, the IPO price will be set before listing. This price is very low, and many qualified people will subscribe for this new share. Similar to buying a car in Beijing, shake it in front of you and you can buy this new share. If you win the lottery, you will really make a steady profit, but in order to prevent someone from speculating by playing new shares every day, the exchange stipulates that the average market value of stocks held in stock accounts in the past 20 trading days can only participate in playing new shares. The specific provisions are as follows:
On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the average market value of the stocks held in the stock account for nearly 20 trading days is 1 000 yuan, and new shares can be subscribed for 1 000 shares.
In Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the average market value of the stocks held in the stock account in the last 20 trading days is 5,000 yuan, and 500 new shares can be purchased.
The so-called average market value, for example, you shorted in the first 19 trading day and bought 200,000 shares in Shanghai on the 20th trading day. When you apply the next day, your average position in the last 20 trading days is 10000 yuan (200,000 /20 trading days). At this time, you can apply for 65,438+0000 shares.
As I said above, the subscription of new shares, if you win the lottery, is basically a steady business, but since both exchanges require you to hold the corresponding stocks, you should also consider the risks brought by the decline of the stocks you hold, so in general, if you subscribed for new shares full-time last year, the annualized rate of return will be around 15%.
The premise of this annualized rate of return 15% is that you subscribe every time (that is, the number of subscriptions is the maximum limit set by the IPO company), and you must subscribe every time there are new shares. Because the winning rate is very low, this rate of return is only for the whole year.
This is a requirement for subscription of new shares. Therefore, when purchasing new shares in full, the stocks allocated in the stock account (referring to the stocks bought in order to obtain the qualification for purchasing new shares) are all varieties with stable performance and small stock price fluctuation, such as electric power, high-speed and banks.
Author Liang Jie, who entered the stock market in 2003, has been in the stock market for more than ten years. Always adhere to a point of view, follow the trend, make big profits and make small losses. He was once a champion trader in South China and North China, and was a special guest of Cai Dong and Phoenix Finance. After decades of actual combat, a large number of financial gods and professional super sellers have gathered to study stocks with great concentration, and they can always choose bull stocks with daily limit at low positions. Now it has been sought after by tens of thousands of loyal disciples. Summarized stock selection methods can often select bull stocks that have risen sharply.
The author insists on explaining every day and continues to explain in return for the support of my fans and friends. Many friends have learned this stock picking tactic, and this wave has earned a lot of money. If you are also a new investor in short-term operation, I hope you can read it in 3 minutes. There are many bull stocks selected before, such as:
When the stock price stepped back, I chose Hongye shares. At that time, the stock price fell, the reverse cross star appeared at the bottom, and the main force entered the market. This is an excellent opportunity for layout and decisive choice of explanation. Sure enough, the stock price continued to rise. Up to now, the stock price has risen by more than 70 points. Many fans who watch the author's live broadcast have seized this wave of income, which is also the profit that fans who watch Sister Liang's live broadcast for a long time can grasp!
Shanghai Sanmao can reflect the author's idea of stock selection. In the early stage, the bottom of the stock oscillated to attract funds. On the 5th, the stock price showed a short-term oversold rebound phenomenon, with a large inflow of funds and a buying point. According to the stock selection method I said, I chose to explain it in time and easily gained more than 60% increase. Congratulations to the stock friends who saw the author's article on stock selection at that time to grasp the stock market in time.
I am very good at picking stocks that start at the bottom. Such short-term stocks make money quickly and have strong pull-up. Today, the author also selected a short-term stock that is expected to break out from the bottom. See the figure below:
Looking at the picture above, after the cliff-like decline in the early stage, this stock has already attracted gold and washed the dishes. Now that the stock price has broken through the pressure above, the upside is open. Can it exceed the previous high point? We will wait and see. As for the late trend of the stock, it will continue to follow up and explain it in the stock selection article.
I have been tracking and studying several stocks similar to Hongye and Shanghai Sanmao for a long time. Tickets have been chosen. Interested friends can check for themselves ... look at the end. If there is a ... quilt in their hands, they can get it from the author (WeChat: 83374282).