Container capacity is determined by two complementary factors-container turnover and fleet turnover. Long-term transport capacity depends on the shortage of container size and fleet size. The improvement of the utilization rate of container capacity can prevent containers from becoming a restrictive factor in 2022, and the increase of container capacity is determined by the change of fleet size. According to the existing ship orders, considering the possibility of delayed delivery of orders and ship dismantling, it is estimated that the fleet size will increase by about 3. 1%-4.3%.
Short-term transport capacity is disturbed by container turnover, ship turnover and ship idle capacity. The increase in container output basically makes up for the negative impact of the decline in turnover efficiency, while the port efficiency depends on many external factors and is uncontrollable. Short-term capacity can be adjusted by two factors: idle rate and speed. However, in the overheating stage of the market, the upward elasticity of short-term transportation capacity is limited, the speed and idle rate have reached the limit level, and the adjustable space is limited.