Detroit's Big Three (GM, Ford, Chrysler) are falling out of favor, and the Wall Street Journal has turned to "calling for China" affectionately, which is even more enchanting than Musk's impromptu dance when he put into production in Shanghai.
Will Tesla grow into greatness? Time will patiently give the answer, but in my opinion, only Mercedes-Benz, former Ford and Toyota are worthy of "great" brands at present.
Mercedes-Benz, the inventor of the automobile, will do its part, and Henry Ford will also have a place when he completes the industrialization of the automobile and becomes a machine that changes the world. Toyota is the definer of modern manufacturing industry, the pioneer of new energy, and the first automobile brand at present. It uses its strength to clear its name.
The Germans invented the automobile, then the Americans finished industrialization, and finally the Japanese and the future China reached the ultimate optimization of the whole value chain for the second time. This is completely in line with the development track of the past 500 years, and also has an amazing coincidence with the process of European Renaissance, Religious Reform and Industrial Revolution. It will also mean that in the near future, this 130-year-old industry will bloom with the bright flowers of Chaoyang East.
Max Weber, a modern German sociologist, believes that the Protestant Reform Movement, initiated by German Martin Luther, developed by French-born Swiss Calvin, matured among English Puritans and eventually spread in the vast United States, is the spiritual pillar of modern capitalism and industrial revolution.
Mercantilism, rationalism, contract spirit and other words can roughly summarize Weber's view that there is a causal relationship between Protestant ethics and some psychological driving force hidden behind the development of capitalism. As the pillar of modern industry and capitalist economy, automobile perfectly fits the development track of Protestantism. The Germans inherited the achievements of the first industrial revolution in Protestant Britain and invented machines that changed human travel; From Ford's "Model T" assembly line to the management revolution of General Motors President Si Long, it laid a brilliant foundation for American industry and global industrial production. Ford and GM have jointly occupied the global automobile championship 100 years.
Mercedes and Daimler, and the founders of Mercedes-Benz, Henry Ford and Si Long, are all Protestants. By the way, elon musk's South African Dutch father and Canadian mother are also Protestants.
From birth to everbright, Protestantism, which emancipates the mind and emphasizes order, has become an out-and-out belief in the process of automobile industry. The Protestant automobile industry in Germany, Britain and the United States monopolized more than 80% of the global automobile market.
It was not until 1970 that the second oil crisis began that Japanese automobile companies represented by Toyota and Honda and Korean automobile companies represented by Hyundai and Kia began to rise rapidly in the 1980s. In 2009, China, which reached the top of the world's largest market, became the core promoter of the global automobile industry.
This new Confucianism, which absorbs the essence of philosophers and western culture and adapts to the new era through self-renewal, has attracted widespread attention with the rise of East Asian economy.
The East Asian Economic Zone, from imitation at the beginning, following after 1970s to innovation at the end of 1990s, is regarded as the internal motive force of the East Asian economy, and is a neo-Confucian who is connected with capitalism and devoted to exploring the source of China's traditional culture. As far as the automobile industry is concerned, the neo-Confucian East Asian automobile industry, which is based on market capacity, driven by new energy and radiated by strong manufacturing power, is becoming the most powerful challenger of Protestant automobile power.
Sunset in Detroit
On February 6th, Ford Motor Company announced its financial performance for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 20 19. The company's net profit was 47 million dollars, far lower than the 3.7 billion dollars in 20 18 and the 7.7 billion dollars in 20 17, with a year-on-year decrease of 99%. In view of the continuous weakening, Ford Motor Company has also started a series of adjustment plans, including a number of management adjustments including Chief Operating Officer joe hinrichs.
In 20 19, the sales of Detroit's three major companies in the world and China all hit new lows. Since Toyota won the global championship in 2008, the strong support of the original China market has been pulled away, and Detroit's moderns may remain in the General Fuxing Building, which symbolizes the prosperity of American manufacturing industry forever.
It is said that due to the withdrawal of many brands in recent years, the organizers decided to hold the Detroit Auto Show with a history of 1 13 years from June to June to create a warm signboard for the auto show. However, I don't know whether the warm summer sunshine in COBO Cobo Center can still warm and cold sales.
65438+1October13rd, according to the official data of Ford Motor Company, 567854 vehicles (including Ford, Lincoln and Jiangling) were sold last year, down by 26. 1% year-on-year, of which Changan Ford's cumulative sales volume was 20 183.
141October 14 on the evening of Beijing, Ford's two joint ventures in China (Changan Ford and Jiangling Ford) and two sales consortia (Ford and Lincoln) celebrated the Spring Festival in full swing, and festive red lanterns were hung high in order to dispel the frustration of Ford's sharp decline in China for three consecutive years.
"Look at Sharp in the short term, Focus in the medium term and Mondeo in the long term." Our reporter suggested to Song Yang, President of Changan Ford Joint Marketing Agency. To solve the problem, you have to untie the bell and tie the bell, lose the brand definition of mid-to high-end cars and the sales base of ace mid-level cars, and only rely on the last remaining market dividend of SUVs to struggle. The rise of Ford will surely face the rugged mountain road and meander forward.
In 20 19, GM and Chrysler brothers also began to accelerate the downward trend. In 20 19, GM's new car sales in China decreased by 15% to 3.09 million vehicles, which was the second consecutive year of decline. In 20 19, the sales volume of GAC Fick was 74,000 units, down 40.96% year-on-year.
Although Detroit's three major businesses in the world have not declined significantly, especially in North America, with the continuous sales of pickup trucks and large SUVs, sales and profits in North America have reached new highs. However, after Detroit has lost Southeast Asia and almost lost Europe, the China market of GM's "second hometown" is also in jeopardy.
Every time I see Ford's financial statements and pickup truck sales, I have the impulse to rename the company "Michigan F 150 Automobile Company". Henry Ford's great grandson, George W. Bill Ford, who has been in charge of Ford for nearly 20 years, always fantasizes about establishing "Ford Technology Co., Ltd.".
From Nasser, then CEO in 2000, to mark fields, who succeeded Mulally in 20 14, and then to Han Kate, who succeeded Fields as CEO of mobile travel company, he was never satisfied with his achievements in the traditional automobile market. I don't know that this tradition is only supported by a legendary F- 150.
It is said that mark fields, the handsome former CEO of Ford Motor Company, caused the anger of the board of directors because of the fiasco of the new generation of Focus listed in 1994. That year, Ford's legendary F- 150 set an unprecedented global sales height of/KLOC-0.08 million vehicles-however, according to dearborn's understanding, the F-series, which has been the champion of American cars for more than 40 years, has long been cultivated into a fairy. Unless Americans walk to Wal-Mart to buy food, F- 150 will win the championship more than once.
Henry Ford, the founder of Ford Motor Company, an Irish descendant and a devout Episcopal Protestant, established the concept of "the best materials, the best employees make the best cars". Therefore, from the Great Depression of 1929 to the oil crisis of 1970, the tire crisis of "Flint" in 2000, and then to the global financial crisis in 2008, Ford can always survive and die in Du Jie.
But this time, it seems different. The traditional business has been oppressed to the North American market, and the profit of an F- 150 supports a behemoth with annual sales of nearly 200 billion US dollars. Bill has forgotten his great-grandfather's warning: Every brand that tries to be evergreen must build a bridge of Du Jie between the present and the future, which is not only the foundation for its long-term existence, but also a beacon of freedom.
Ford, in a dilemma, where did you leave the lighthouse that illuminates the road ahead?
June 5438+last year 10, Han took the hand of Volkswagen CEO Edith and tried to warm each other. Who knew it? Today's Wolfsburg is also a panic.
Lame giant
The future competition, tactically speaking, will be the competition between MEB (electric vehicle platform) represented by German Volkswagen and a brand-new framework represented by Toyota TNGA. Strategically, Toyota, the leader of neo-Confucianism and oriental management philosophy, is the ultimate battle with Volkswagen Trust, an outstanding representative of Protestant western industry.
Volkswagen is determined to hand over the present of China market to SUV and the future to ever-changing electric vehicles-if you win, you will enjoy splendor; if you lose, you will lose. MEB's best chance of winning is to bet on China after 2025. The public's concern is: Will the electric vehicle MEB face the embarrassment of "intentionally planting flowers" in the future because of its "unintentional planting of willow trees in China" before 1984?
Cautious Toyota never bets in one place. But the danger is that if the era of electric vehicles comes quickly, it also means that the hybrid advantages accumulated by Toyota in the past 20 years will disappear.
At the beginning of March last year, in Geneva, Switzerland, when Toyota will "? The LOGO of "Hybrid" is stuck under the eye-catching logo of "TOYOTA" and in the center of the curtain wall of Toyota Stage in Geneva, just like a dagger inserted into the heart of an electrified European manufacturer.
Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen are determined to take a brave step towards electrification, but their stout left feet (traditional cars) are unwilling to stay in Stuttgart and Wolfsburg.
Starting from 2020, new cars in the EU must meet the standard that the average carbon dioxide emission per kilometer does not exceed 95 grams, otherwise they will face huge fines. BMW will be very painful. Of the 2.65438+0.7 million vehicles sold last year, nearly 50% were X-series SUVs. Therefore, no matter how Munich tries to put on a "green" coat from X 1 to X7, it will face a severe regulatory test this year.
However, ABB is still unwilling to go all out to embrace new technologies because they are afraid of alienating customers who support internal combustion engines. Zemer, an economist at Ifo Economic Research Institute in Germany, said: "German automakers have no vision for the future, and they lack imagination for any business model different from what they currently have. They complain and object to things that require them to make changes. They are afraid of emission standards, autonomous driving, electric traffic, replacing the concept of traffic, and enjoying traffic ... "
This forces German automakers to shift their production focus from internal combustion engines to hybrid or all-electric vehicles. In the next three years, German automobile companies will invest about 40 billion euros in the research and development of battery-powered technology.
However, Kang Song Lin confirmed that Daimler's profits will be greatly reduced in at least the next two years due to the impact of large-scale technology investment. Audi has made a plan to lay off 7,500 people in 2020, while BMW has announced that it will no longer recruit temporary workers.
Sounds terrible, doesn't it? But the good news is that while the global auto market shrank in 20 19, the sales of German auto giants Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler increased strongly. But last year, BMW's sales increased by 2%, Mercedes-Benz increased by 1.3%, and Volkswagen Group increased by 1.3%.
What will happen in 2020? If the trade war between Trump and the EU is as fierce as the Sino-US dispute in 20 19, the German economy, which grew by only 0. 1% in 20 19, will face recession crisis again. Novel coronavirus's rampant automobile market in China has become a lingering shadow over Stuttgart, Munich and Wolfsburg.
But in the short term, whether in China market or in the global market, the brand advantages that Germans have built for many years are still unshakable. Especially in the traditional market, cars have a monopoly brand advantage, but in the long run, with the weakening of followers such as France, Italy, Britain and Sweden, and the gradual decline of Detroit Big Three since 20 18, the industrial position established by the car inventor 130 for more than 30 years will become the last bastion for Protestants to resist attacks from Asia.
During the Tokyo Auto Show last year, our reporter recorded a passage at the entrance of Toyota Motor Pavilion in Japan: "At the beginning of the 20th century, steam, electricity and oil became the protagonists of this era, so what kind of energy can become the protagonists of the world in 2 1 century?" Under the marble plaque hanging this passage, a Prius and a Mirai stand out.
Big collision
Two great changes have taken place in the past 50 years. The first time was the oil crisis in the 1970s, and the Japanese automobile industry represented by Toyota rose as a whole. The second time, after China topped the global automobile market in 2009, emerging markets began to try to take on the next baton of automobile civilization.
"On the surface, the Japanese prostrated themselves at the feet of the West, but in fact they disarmed their attackers." In terms of historical research, Toynbee, the most outstanding historian in the West, commented on the modern relationship between the West and East Asia.
At the end of last year, the author discussed the embodiment of Confucian culture in Toyota with Mr. Dong, Executive Deputy General Manager of Toyota China. Mr. Dong said: "Every employee of Toyota will strongly feel this oriental culture completely different from that of western enterprises in all aspects of daily management, but if you want to describe it in detail, you will feel very abstract."
"Tao can be extraordinary for Tao", which may be the unique coexistence of sentence ambiguity and semantic understanding in eastern philosophy.
The motto of Mr. Toyoda Shoichiro, the founder of Toyota, is: Heaven and Earth are wise and benevolent, which comes from The Book of Rites. Mr. Dong said that the loyalty of Toyota employees is extremely high. A special phenomenon is that employees who leave Toyota seldom speak ill of their old employers. This, of course, can not be separated from the Confucian thought of benevolent governance and the way of "mutual righteousness" that supports this company.
Moreover, Toyota pursues the concept of "annual ring management", and Hiroyuki Nakamura, who is in charge of Ina food industry, is said to be regarded as an ideological mentor by Toyota. Ina food industry is only a small enterprise whose scale is less than that of Toyota11500, but it has continuously achieved revenue growth for 48 years. "Companies are actually different from organisms. How to develop permanently and sustainably is the premise and ideal of business operation. " Tsukubo once made an analogy. "Simply put, as long as it is not worse than the previous year ... At present, most people in the economic circles advocate rapid growth." This idea of sustainable development can be traced back to Xunzi in the pre-Qin period.
As an exporter of oriental civilization, China's outstanding economic performance in recent years has also attracted the attention of the world. From Meiji Restoration to 1980 embracing the west, from 1980 embracing the world's China after the reform and opening up, the worship and acceptance of new technologies by leading countries in the East and the business model of economic rise different from the west have put forward a brand-new topic for world history researchers.
The famous Japanese religious scholar Dading once said, "(The Chinese nation) is awakening. Once they wake up, they stand up quietly and look for the remains of their civilization. What will happen then? "
Today, the development of China is confirming the prediction of market fixing 100 years ago. Huntington and Fukuyama, one proposed the clash of civilizations in the 1980s, and the other began to confidently claim the complete victory of the West in the 1990s. Because of the unprecedented rise of China, the two most outstanding social philosophers in modern western countries failed to judge the trend of world economy and institutional governance under the new situation.
At present, the western liberal system has encountered the biggest challenge in the past 20 years, but Japan and Singapore, two eastern countries, are complacent. One has become the leader of free economy and the other has become a model of national governance. The former is the expansion and extension of Confucian philosophy in East Asia; The latter comes down in one continuous line with China's traditional governance culture of "Confucianism outside and law inside".
Perhaps one day, the West's acceptance of the East will probably be the same as that of most times in the past. Although westerners have created a high level of material civilization, their elites often draw nutrients from the older wisdom of the East and even become believers directly.
"Pollution, resource consumption and irreconcilable social contradictions", the ultimate question put forward by western countries at last, will also have non-western answers, such as eastern philosophy and social governance practice.
The whole western countries, based on the huge market capacity of the United States, have grown into global automobile leaders; In the future, the eastern countries will inevitably replicate this successful model in stages. Based on the total amount of 25 million vehicles in China automobile market, great enterprises like Volkswagen and Toyota will be born in time. In the fields of home appliances, e-commerce, high-speed rail, communication and shipbuilding, excellent globalization samples such as Gree, Alibaba and Huawei have emerged.
Looking back, almost every great technological progress and management revolution will produce a great name. Cars are standing on the cusp of the new technological revolution marked by 5G.
Therefore, after Mercedes-Benz, Ford and Toyota, the automobile will be great again, and a new legend will be born in China full of vitality. Maybe it's the first auspicious day, maybe it's the Great Wall that insists on going its own way, maybe it's Weilai after Qian Fan on the side of the shipwreck, or another possible future that you don't know yet.
There is bound to be a war between China and Japan.
The coming 10 year is the mission of brand growth in China and the fate of globalization of China automobile industry.
2065438+09101On October 23rd, Akio Toyoda stood on the Toyota stage of the Tokyo Motor Show, with a huge booth of nearly 800 square meters, without a car behind him. Toyota is determined to try to answer the Tokyo Motor Show "Open?" With unprecedented courage and determination. The path and future of the future.
Ten years ago, at the center of the crisis, he accepted the "big government return" of then President Katsuaki Watanabe, and accepted the order of the crisis as the president for the first time. He stood on the stage of Tokyo Auto Show, slightly green and uneasy, and made a reflection and commitment to "return to the original point".
On October 20/9101October 3 1 day, Volkswagen China joined hands with North and South Volkswagen to launch a brand-new China strategy of "Meeting New Volkswagen" in Guangzhou. 10 years ago, almost at the same time and place, the aggressive "southern strategy" was launched in South China, the base camp of Japan, which laid the foundation for eight years of growth in one fell swoop.
2019165438+10. On the 2nd of October, An Conghui, president of Geely Automobile, stood at the foot of Mount Tai and sounded the starting gun of "Geely Emgrand Upward Marathon". In 2009, Geely released the first Emgrand EC7 with multi-brand strategy in Jinan base. Independent leader Geely fired an upward starting gun at the top of Mount Tai, which is a political symbol. His ambition to "climb Mount Tai and be small in the world" and his boldness of vision to "go straight to the top of danger and eventually go to heaven" coincide with the decline of independence, but his ambition to climb up is vividly demonstrated.
It is said that all beings are equal at the crossroads of turning, with all? Vowed "Open" at the Frankfurt Motor Show? The future "Tokyo Motor Show facing the future" is the window. What kind of car future will we see?
In the next decade, China Automobile, which is in the nirvana of Phoenix, is bound to go to the world with the strength of China and take the lead in consolidating its own foundation in the local market. With Geely and the Great Wall achieving more than 2 million vehicles in China as a symbol, by 2030, China brand will occupy more than 50% of the local market.
Except German and Japanese brands, the vast majority of foreign brands will gradually become a minority, and German brands that can interpret future consumers will gradually lose in China. In addition to Mercedes-Benz and BMW continuing to take the lead in luxury brands, the proportion of Volkswagen (including Audi), Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the future 25 million passenger cars will drop from about 25% at present to about 17%.
In the next decade, with the economic integration in East Asia and the profound changes in global automobiles, Japanese automobiles with "hybrid+electric" as the core driving force will continue to compete in the China market. It is estimated that their share in the China automobile market will climb from the current 22% to over 25%, making them the second largest force after local brands in China.
In the next decade, China automobile will gradually popularize domestic automobile civilization. Starting from 2025, it will be globalized under the national strategy of "Belt and Road". Since then, Chinese and Japanese auto companies have started to compete in the markets of Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and will eventually compete in all directions in Southeast Asian countries, which are the core markets that Japan has occupied for 40 years.
Since then, driven by the new energy, intelligence and politicization of automobile civilization, the automobile industry between China and Japan will compete fiercely in mutual integration and interdependence. In this re-division of economic spheres of influence, China and Japan, which have more comparative advantages, will become the ultimate winners of the new round of globalization.
This is not a life-and-death struggle between Chinese and Japanese cars, but a sign that the center of gravity of global industrial civilization has begun to move eastward. On the one hand, standing on the new intelligent and electrified track, the China automobile market has gradually upgraded from the previous market traction to technical traction; On the other hand, after the first round of global commodity export represented by mobile phones, the bulk consumer goods represented by automobiles became the forerunners of the second wave of globalization of China's industry.
This is a crucial decade for China to reach the peak of its rejuvenation. Taking 2020 as a new starting point, China's local automobile industry is bound to be avenged and forge ahead.
(Please continue to pay attention to the "2020∣ Pattern and Trends (Part II)" pushed tomorrow: rain or shine. From reaching the top of the world in 2009 to 20 19, China automobile industry has gone through a firm and vivid parabola for ten years. Facing the new era, it is hard for independent brands not to think about such a topic: "If fate must return, why can't it return to me?" )
Text/Wei Jinqiao
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.