Financial analysis of college students' business plan-1. Description of capital requirements
When the company was established, all shareholders contributed XX million yuan, and * * * was the initial capital of XX million yuan.
2. Capital investment plan
It is estimated that in the first quarter, 220,000 yuan will be invested to purchase workshops and production lines for product research and development and market development, and 6,543,800 yuan will be invested to purchase raw materials to produce products. The salary of recruiting production and sales personnel is 24,000 yuan, and other cash related to business activities is 1.9 million yuan.
Estimated first quarter profit statement
Unit: Yuan
Estimated first quarter balance sheet
Unit: Yuan
Risk analysis
1. Market and competitive risks
In market competition, the basic motivation and goal of competition is to maximize income. However, the expected benefits of competitors are not always realized. In fact, competition itself will make competitors face the danger of not realizing their expected interests, and even suffer losses in economic interests. The possibility that this actually realized interest deviates from the expected interest target is the risk faced by competitors. Risk is the possibility of loss or gain caused by uncertain factors. There are many uncertain factors in the market competition. Although every competitor expects to realize its expected benefits, it is impossible for them all to succeed, and some competitors are bound to lose in the competition and bear the losses.
Analysis: insufficient customer resources, unclear publicity effect and inaccurate price positioning.
Countermeasures:
1, increase publicity and improve service quality.
2. Pre-market research, constantly seeking personalized products.
3. Service innovation, using alternative innovative thinking to serve enterprises.
2. Product and technical risks
Analysis: Peer competition, strong imitation.
Countermeasures:
1, to improve product quality, in order to ensure that their customers are not lost.
2. Continuously conduct market research and determine the service type, so as to seek more markets and build the company brand.
3, innovation, so that people do not have me, people have me, people are better than me.
3. Financial risks
Analysis: insufficient funds, ineffective control of capital cost in the early stage, and enterprises can't remit money in time.
Countermeasures:
1. It is an improper handling of financial risks to establish a financial early warning analysis index system to prevent financial risks from causing financial crises. Therefore, it is particularly necessary to guard against financial risks and establish and improve the financial early warning system.
2. Establish a short-term financial early warning system and prepare a cash flow budget. Since the object of enterprise financing is cash and its flow, in the short term, whether an enterprise can survive depends not entirely on whether it is profitable, but on whether it has enough cash for various expenses.
3. Establish financial analysis index system and long-term financial early warning system. For the company, it is necessary to establish a long-term financial early warning system while establishing a short-term financial early warning system. Among them, profitability, solvency, economic benefits and development potential are the most representative indicators.
4. Establish risk awareness, improve internal control procedures, and reduce the potential risks of contingent liabilities. Where a guarantee contract is concluded, the credit status of the guaranteed enterprise shall be strictly examined; When signing a guarantee contract, use counter-guarantee and exemption clauses of guarantee liability appropriately; After the conclusion of the contract, the solvency of the guaranteed enterprise should be tracked and reviewed to reduce the direct risk loss.
5. Make scientific investment decisions.
4. Managing risks
Analysis: the poor management of the person in charge caused the company's operation to be blocked; Lacking management experience, all departments of the company can't cooperate closely and develop harmoniously.
Countermeasures:
1, improve the management mechanism and strengthen the reward and punishment system.
2. Find more customer channels and create more benefits for the company.
3, can hire a higher level of technical personnel to guide the operation.
5. Policy risks
Under the condition of market economy, due to the influence of the law of value and competition mechanism, all enterprises are competing for market resources, hoping to gain greater freedom of activities, which may violate the relevant policies of the state, which is binding on the behavior of enterprises. In addition, the state can change policies according to the changes of macro-environment in different periods, which will inevitably affect the economic interests of enterprises. Therefore, due to the existence and adjustment of policies, there will be contradictions in economic interests between the state and enterprises, resulting in policy risks. In this regard, our company's prevention of policy risks mainly depends on market participants' understanding and grasp of national macro policies, as well as investors' correct judgment of market trends, and we can also reduce the loss of policy risks through insurance and other means.
Financial analysis of college students' entrepreneurial plan II 1, capital structure and upfront investment
The company's early start-up funds mainly come from venture capital, personal investment and bank loans. The registered capital is 1 15000 yuan, including 500,000 yuan of foreign venture capital, 10000 yuan of college students' venture capital application, 300,000 yuan of bank loan and 250,000 yuan of trademark rights and patented technology. The initial capital structure of the company is shown in the figure.
In the registered capital of the company, the actual assets are 900,000 yuan. During the establishment of the company, it needs to invest in website design and maintenance, the purchase and use of logistics storage equipment, and the expenses of various departments of the company, especially the main links such as logistics and goods storage, storage and transportation distribution equipment, R&D and marketing, and network platform. Strive to use the network information platform in the early stage of development to facilitate manufacturers and sellers to understand commodity information; Goods warehousing, warehousing, transportation and distribution equipment, shorten warehousing time, reduce access time and reduce the turnover cycle of distribution services; Enhance the company's popularity through marketing and advertising; Continuously carry out research and development, develop advanced software management system, design more scientific goods distribution route, and reduce costs. While doing a good job in the company's operation, we should also constantly optimize the company's internal situation and strive to make the talent allocation reasonable and constantly optimized. To this end, the company makes the following allocation in combination with the capital situation.
2. Financial budget and analysis
Financial budget is a series of budgets that specifically reflect the expected financial position and operating results of the company in a certain budget period in the future, as well as cash receipts and payments and other value indicators, including cash budget, expected income statement, expected balance sheet and expected cash flow statement.
Financial budget is an integral part of the company's comprehensive budget system, which makes the decision-making objectives specific, systematic and quantitative, can reflect the results of special decision-making budget and operating budget during the operation period, and makes the budget implementation clear at a glance.
2. 1. 1 company financial budget method
When the company formulates the financial budget, we adopt the budget preparation method of rolling budget, which is convenient for the adjustment and correction of the company's finance. Rolling budget, also known as sustainable budget, prepares the annual budget for the next year before the current fiscal year, and prepares the budget for each quarter according to the specific situation of the budget. Its main features are: adjusting and revising the budget in the following period according to the new situation, and supplementing the budget on the basis of the original budget, so as to roll back step by step in the form of budget and continuously plan future business activities.
1) Long-term budget (according to the budget data of fiscal year)
2) Short-term budget (quarterly budget data)
2. 1. 1 company financial budget
The estimated cash flow statement is a financial budget that reflects the cash inflow and cash outflow of an enterprise in a certain period. It reveals the business activities, investment activities and fund-raising activities of enterprises in a certain period of time from two aspects of cash inflow and outflow.
The cash flow generated. The estimated cash flow statement for a certain year during the normal operation of the Company is as follows:
Expected income statement is a kind of financial budget that comprehensively reflects the results of business activities of enterprises during the budget period. It is based on sales,
Prepare relevant materials of product cost, expenses and other budgets. It is a financial analysis that reflects the production and operation status of the enterprise during the planning period and an important basis for predicting the final result of the enterprise's business activities. The budget profit statement also reflects the company's profits and losses in a certain accounting period.
The estimated profit statement of the Company in a certain year during the normal operation period is as follows:
The projected balance sheet is a financial budget that comprehensively reflects the financial situation of an enterprise during the budget period. It is based on the opening balance sheet and adjusted according to the relevant data of sales, production and capital budget.
Financial analysis of college students' entrepreneurial plan III. Balance sheet budget
The budget of the balance sheet is usually not made by many enterprises. The main reason is its uncertainty, and the budget balance sheet may not necessarily reflect the operating results in a certain period. As we said in the cash flow statement budget before, the balance sheet embodies a concept of "time point". It is difficult to determine the level of each balance sheet item at the end of the period. Not only is the assumption subjective, but also, just like the above example of accounts receivable, the balance of some items today is likely to be very different from that of tomorrow. Money is flowing, and it is hard to know what will happen next second.
Of course, the budget of the balance sheet is not irregular, especially for some enterprises with relatively stable business. Generally speaking, unless there are special investment projects or business adjustments, the level of each item in the balance sheet should be basically fixed. Even a brand-new enterprise can make an asset-liability budget, but it should be especially careful in the choice of settings. According to the order of balance sheet from left to right and from top to bottom, the following are some basic assets and liabilities for reference only:
1. Cash and bank deposits: This will be finalized.
2. Inventory: Generally, it can be estimated according to a certain proportion of sales (finished products) plus a certain proportion of product sales costs (raw materials). Finished goods can also be calculated as follows: ending quantity = opening quantity+budgeted production quantity-budgeted sales quantity. If it is a brand-new enterprise, the initial amount is of course "zero". And the last level of raw materials, enterprises usually leave a certain proportion according to the output.
Of course, it may make the calculation more complicated. Then it is necessary to calculate the production cost first, then the product sales cost, and then the inventory balance of the inventory. To calculate the production cost, we should consider the optimal purchase quantity of each variety of all raw materials, the use time of each batch of purchase quantity (or the consumption in a certain period), unit price, inventory storage cost and other factors. The cost of product sales should be linked to the sales plan of the enterprise, and other factors related to sales should also be considered (such as returns, sales volume not reaching expectations, etc.). ). In addition, we should also consider the guaranteed inventory of various products.
3. Accounts receivable and notes receivable: Of course, a certain proportion of sales revenue is used. Mainly consider the average turnover days of accounts receivable in this industry. This calculation is subjective, but there seems to be no better way.
4. Fixed assets, projects under construction and deferred assets: this part is relatively easy. If the capital expenditure budget has been made, deducting depreciation or amortization is the balance of assets we need.
5. Long-term investment: Generally, a brand-new company has no long-term foreign investment when it first started its business. But if there is, it should not be difficult to estimate the amount according to the actual situation.
6. Accounts payable: This can be calculated according to a certain proportion of the product sales cost. Its basic idea is similar to the calculation of accounts receivable.
7. Payable wages and welfare expenses: generally, it is listed as one month's labor cost/expense. But personal income tax should be deducted, because personal income tax is in the tax payable.
8. Taxes payable: Taxes can be calculated according to sales (used to calculate the output value of business tax and value-added tax), cost and gross profit margin (value-added tax), labor cost (personal income tax), net profit (enterprise income tax), import and export amount (customs duties) and some specific matters of the company (stamp duty, vehicle and vessel use tax), which is not very complicated.
9. Bank loan (long-term, short-term): According to the financing policy and plan of the enterprise, it is estimated according to the expected repayment period.
10. Paid-in capital and share capital: listed according to the company's capital institutions and sources, the progress of shareholders' investment, etc. If it is a start-up, institutions without clear shareholders/share capital can go public, and the required funds are deducted from the expected bank financing. And how much all the funds need is calculated through the "capital demand budget" mentioned above. The basic figure should be = initial capital investment of the company+capital gap in operation. The capital gap can be filled by further investment by shareholders or financing by banks and financial institutions.
1 1. Undistributed profit: it is actually the net profit on the income statement. This is the contrast between the income statement and the balance sheet. I don't think I need to explain here.
There are about 40 items in the whole balance sheet, and I only talk about 16 and 7 items here, mainly focusing on key points. Some projects are not very important at first, or are not important at all for the new company. I won't talk about it here.
In addition, sometimes in order to achieve a certain asset-liability ratio, current ratio, or debt-to-equity ratio, we can also adjust the total assets and liabilities, the short-term and long-term ratios of assets and liabilities, and so on. This requires the use of other receivables, other current assets, other long-term assets, other payables, other current liabilities, other long-term liabilities and other items. By properly adjusting these subjects, a certain proportion of financial indicators can be achieved.
As for the cash and bank deposits in the first item, after all the items are arranged, the remaining balance will be put in cash. The only requirement is: Negative numbers are not allowed, because there is no bank deposit account in China where there will be a deficit. In foreign countries, if an agreement is reached with the bank, the bank account will have a deficit or overdraft within a certain range, and the bank can regard it as a short-term loan.
Two, zero-based budget, incremental budget and comprehensive budget
In front of us, we spent a lot of time talking about how to make a budget, or medium-and long-term planning, for a company that has just started business or is still in the entrepreneurial stage. As far as the budget method is concerned, this is called "zero-based budget" (ZBB for short), and there is no basic budget. In other words, there are few references and historical data, and producers must make a budget based on their own experience and judgment, plus expectations of changes in the surrounding environment. This is very challenging for financial personnel.
Zero-based budgeting is particularly important for all departments to participate in the budget process. In many enterprises, financial personnel may be the person in charge of budget projects. But many business people will think that the budget is a financial matter and has nothing to do with me. In order to change this situation, financial personnel should try to involve more business departments in the budget formulation process. Let more people with industry experience contribute their ideas and judgments. At the same time, in the process of budget formation, we should let all departments "claim" their own budgets, let them feel that they are the "masters" of the budgets, and let the formulated budgets be watched and implemented by others. Otherwise, it is a piece of waste paper. Moreover, in the end, everyone will say that this budget is fabricated by the finance department out of thin air. What does it have to do with me?
Contrary to zero-based budgeting, it is called "incremental budgeting". The focus of incremental budget is to find out the changing values of various items in financial statements. Note that the "variable value" mentioned here is neither increasing nor decreasing. Although the name "incremental budget" does not mean only increase.
Incremental budget method is mainly applicable to those enterprises with mature business models. When making a budget, enterprises have been based on comprehensive financial data for 3-5 years. If there are no big changes, just increase or decrease the possible changes.
Of course, ZBB and increment can be used at the same time. For example, an enterprise with two divisions is very mature, but developing a new division next year is almost a brand-new company. In this way, you can budget in two ways at the same time, and then combine the results. In addition, if an enterprise has some new investment projects or new product lines, it can use ZBB method to make the project budget first, and then add it to the incremental budget of the existing business.
Incremental budgeting usually takes into account many changing factors in the next year. Here are just some random examples. They may include:
(1) Factors affecting the change of sales volume: enterprises expand new sales channels to increase sales volume, add new varieties on the basis of the original varieties, change in sales unit price, change in sales methods, etc.
(2) Factors that affect the sales cost of products: the rising price of raw materials, the provision of workers' production efficiency, the changes in the sources and channels of raw materials or production equipment, etc.
(3) Factors affecting expenses: inflation, changes in the company's organizational structure, personnel changes, company relocation, and new investment and financing.
(4) Factors affecting the change of assets: the change of credit terms (accounts receivable), the company's decision to invest in other projects (long-term investment), the introduction of new equipment (fixed assets), etc.
(5) As the company's assets increase, there must be an increase in liabilities or equity. Changes in the items on the right side of the balance sheet depend on how the enterprise wants to raise funds or attract funds. At the same time, these changes will also affect the increase or decrease of financial expenses.
In addition, the whole budget is a cross-checking whole. Although we only saw three major statements in the end: income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement, there is still a lot of basic work to be done. Simply put, there are the following aspects:
(1) The sales department first formulates the sales budget, the production department formulates the production budget according to the sales budget, the purchasing department formulates the purchase budget according to the production budget, and the transportation and warehousing department formulates the logistics plan or budget according to the purchase budget. Only in this way can the figures of sales volume and product sales cost be put into the income statement. Then, according to the method mentioned above, the ending inventory and accounts payable are calculated and put into the balance sheet.
(2) The personnel department plans the headcount and recruitment according to factors such as production scale and sales scale, and then calculates the personnel cost according to everyone's possible salary level and annual inflation level. Among them, the cost is included in the income statement. If the salary is paid first, don't forget that the lender should put it in the accounts payable, benefits payable and taxes payable on the balance sheet.
(3) According to the information such as sales volume, unit price, product variety, etc., combined with corporate culture, objectives, values and other factors, the marketing department makes marketing plans, calculates the market expense budget, and enters it into the income statement.
(4) Business development departments, production departments, administrative departments, etc. Make a capital expenditure plan. Whether to set up a new business department, what kind of equipment to purchase, whether to introduce new technology to expand reproduction, whether to expand or decorate the office. Actual equipment and assets, fixed assets, construction in progress and deferred assets entering the balance sheet. The corresponding depreciation and amortization enter the income statement. Of course, capital expenditure will also enter the "cash flow from investment activities" in the cash flow statement.
(5) The financial supervisor or the foreign investment and financing department shall make investment and financing plans according to the overall situation of the income statement budget and the capital expenditure budget. If there are surplus funds for investment, investment items should be set in the balance sheet and "cash flow generated by investment activities" should be set in the cash flow statement. If financing is needed, the financing amount is placed in the "cash flow of financing activities" in the balance sheet's liabilities or equity and cash flow statement. In addition, the investment income or interest expenses involved in investment and financing should be placed in the appropriate subjects in the income statement and cash flow statement.
(six) each department to make a budget for the possible expenses of the department. Among them: salary, welfare, depreciation/amortization are already available. The budgets of various departments mainly focus on departmental expenses, such as travel expenses, communication expenses, printing expenses, etc.
Through such a rough process, are all assets, liabilities, rights and interests, income, costs/expenses and profits almost the same? Various departments also participated in the budget preparation process in different ways. Moreover, in the overall budget, the cross-checking relationship between the budget items of each division is also obvious.
Finally, what the finance department needs to do is to summarize and properly balance the budgets of major statements, and at the same time calculate the data of taxation and other aspects. Costs and expenses need to be shared among different products or projects in different departments. Calculate some key indicators (KPI) for the boss to review. After that, it may be necessary for each department to revise the budget several times, and then summarize the revisions until the budget is relatively perfect.
Third, turn uncertainty into profit.
Uncertainty and risk
Why are there risks in business operation? This is because all decisions are made according to the budget, and all budgets depend on different degrees of uncertainty. Human's prediction of the future is extremely limited, and we can't know what will happen in the next few months, a year or a few years. What's more, there are many things that we can't control, such as changes in market conditions, changes in exchange rates, changes in people's concepts and so on.
For a simple example, when we made the company 10 plan before 1995, we would never have thought that in a few years, the internet would have such a great impact on business models, business models, consumption concepts and people's daily lives. To be more specific, we certainly didn't think at that time that we could sell products in online virtual stores, not only to local customers, but also to many foreign customers, thus increasing sales. At that time, we would not have thought of estimating the promotion and advertising expenses of an electronic media in the market expenses. I don't even think coupons can be sent by mail, and there is no need for printing costs and dispatching personnel costs. And so on.
So, what factors are uncertain when budgeting? Or, what factors will happen in the future, which will make our business prediction less certain?
In more elegant terms, it is: uncertainty in the sense of economics. For example: changes in the economic cycle, concepts that are difficult to define, and unmeasurable factors. In fact, what we usually talk about is the change of income and cost caused by the change of market environment; Changes in specific environment lead to changes in asset value; Changes in external factors such as exchange rate, tax rate, interest rate and inflation; The change of social factors leads to the adverse effects of changes in people's consumption habits and concepts. There are uncertainties in enterprise management, especially human factors, which are the most uncertain.
However, if uncertainty is overemphasized, there is no way to make a budget. Because uncertainty cannot be measured. Accounting pays attention to the principle of "monetary measurement" and cannot reflect the unmeasurable things in the statements. But it is not completely unsolvable. In economics, "risk" can be measured. So, how to turn uncertainty into measurable risk?
In the accounting concept, risks are generally reflected in the following forms: "moisture" in operating income, potential increase in operating costs, exchange loss and increase in financial expenses caused by changes in interest rates and exchange rates, impairment of short-term investments, valuation of bad inventory, revaluation and impairment of obsolete equipment, untruthfulness of long-term investments, increase or decrease in land revaluation, pending lawsuits, commitments, environmental liabilities and costs, later events, contingent liabilities and so on.
(B) the uncertainty into numbers
In fact, we have many ways to measure risk and evaluate its impact. To sum up, there are mainly:
A. Scenario planning
B. Contingency planning
C. Extrapolating and forecasting through reasoning
D. sensitivity analysis
E. Scenario simulation
F. decision chart
I recommend it carefully.