The impact of the avian flu epidemic on the overall economy of China is far less than that of SARS.
At the beginning of 2004, avian influenza swept across the United States and some Asian countries, and China, Japanese, Vietnamese and other countries broke out one after another, causing millions of poultry to get sick and die, and more than 10 people may have died of avian influenza virus. At present, the bird flu epidemic has not been effectively controlled. Many countries and regions implement the "closed door policy" and explicitly prohibit the import of poultry and poultry products from epidemic areas. The sales of live chickens, chicken products and other poultry products in the market are obviously not as good as before. The benefits of chicken farms, poultry production and processing enterprises, catering industry and upstream and downstream industries related to poultry products have obviously declined, and some small enterprises with weak anti-risk ability even face the risk of bankruptcy. Related employees face the threat of income decline and unemployment, but compared with the SARS epidemic in the first half of the year, its impact is limited to very limited specific industries and specific regions, and because chicken and poultry products are widely replaceable as one of the foods, people are generally calm, and their work, life order and eating habits have not been greatly affected. Without further variation of avian influenza virus, the impact of avian influenza on China's overall economy will be much lower than that of SARS, and the overall GDP growth rate will not exceed 0. 1 percentage point.
Bird flu has a certain impact on the poultry industry.
Fearing the infection and further spread of bird flu, many areas have "culled" chickens, ducks and other poultry that may be infected. In some areas, the poultry market has been temporarily closed, and the trading and slaughtering of live birds have also been temporarily suspended. For example, after a suspected case of avian influenza is discovered in Shanghai, local organizations will cull all 35,000 infected birds near the suspected case discovery point. The industry and commerce department posted the notice of the municipal government in all markets in the city, demanding that the live poultry trade and slaughter be stopped immediately. Fearing that poultry meat such as chickens and ducks will be infected with the virus, consumers have reduced their consumption of such foods, resulting in a decline in the sales and prices of chicken and poultry products in the market. According to the survey, some meat and poultry markets in Nanchang fluctuated greatly, and the sales of most poultry operators dropped by more than half, and some even dropped by 2/3. However, there are exceptions. Some areas with large poultry imports and no local epidemic situation suddenly stopped importing poultry from epidemic areas and restricted the listing and trading of chickens in local farms. In the case that the market consumption demand has not shrunk obviously, the supply of poultry products such as chickens and ducks in the market is tight and the prices are rising. A typical example is Hongkong, where the wholesale price of chicken has soared from 7 yuan on weekdays to around 12 yuan, with a price increase of 30%, and the retail price will be raised in the next few days.
The losses caused by the import ban far exceed those caused by the slaughter of poultry.
Since the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in some provinces of China, some countries and regions have implemented measures to ban and restrict the import of poultry and poultry products in China. 65438 10/27, the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries immediately announced that it would stop importing Chinese-made chicken (including internal organs) on the same day after receiving the notice from the government of China about the occurrence of avian influenza in China. Previously, duck meat had been banned in China. Since then, countries with bird flu in East Asia and Southeast Asia have been "closed". As of February 5th, 4 1 countries and regions (including EU 15 countries) have taken such measures. At the same time, people refused this kind of food out of fear of bird flu epidemic, which caused great losses to poultry production, processing and circulation enterprises, and the income of relevant employees decreased, and even threatened unemployment. In fact, the actual loss of slaughtering poultry that may be infected with epidemic diseases is not great, and the impact on the economy is minimal. At present, 200,000-300,000 chickens have died in epidemic areas alone in China. According to the 50 yuan value of each chicken, the total loss is 1 1,000-11,500,000 yuan, but the actual and expected loss of a medium-sized poultry processing enterprise in China exceeds this figure. Take Beijing Huadu Broiler Company as an example. In the next two months, the company will lose as much as 400-500 million yuan in export and domestic sales, and some chicken farmers will temporarily lose their sources of income. The company's stocking volume is optimistically estimated to be 50% lower than normal.
In order to reduce the losses caused by "bird flu", China has introduced preferential tax policies.
State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China recently announced that in order to maintain and promote the sustained and stable development of the poultry industry and minimize the losses caused by the "bird flu" epidemic, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued an urgent notice to implement preferential tax policies for the poultry industry. According to the circular, from February 1 day, 2004 to July 3 1 day, 2004, poultry processing enterprises and refrigeration and refrigeration enterprises that are general taxpayers of value-added tax will be subject to the policy of immediate collection and refund of value-added tax, and urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge will be reduced or exempted. The income obtained by poultry breeding (including breeding poultry breeding), processing and refrigeration enterprises shall be exempted from enterprise income tax in 2004. Special financial subsidies obtained by enterprises or individuals for poultry culling shall be exempted from enterprise income tax or personal income tax; The net loss caused by enterprise poultry culling is allowed to be fully charged before income tax. The circular requires that the tax refund for the export of poultry meat processing products should be fully refunded in time, and the part that was exported last year but not filed with the competent tax authorities before the specified deadline for export filing (65438+ 10/5 this year) will be refunded on the basis of timely filing by the enterprise. In addition, with the approval of the provincial people's government, other corresponding taxes can be appropriately reduced or exempted in the whole province (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) or parts of the province (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government).
The following article can better express its harm.
http://un pan 1 . un . org/int radoc/groups/public/documents/AP city/un pan 0 17096 . pdf