Recently, there have been many "oolong" about new energy.
The first is whether new energy subsidies will decline in 2020.
On June 65438+1October 1 1, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei said that in order to stabilize market expectations and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the industry, subsidies for new energy vehicles will not decrease in 2020, and a number of related industrial policies will be promoted.
As soon as the news came out, the circle of friends boiled instantly, and the major car companies were jubilant. However, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology quickly issued an announcement to refute rumors, saying that this was a slip of the tongue. Subsidies for new energy vehicles will not stop falling in 2020, but they will not drop sharply.
"No significant back slope" means back slope, which is great. One second it was "happy" and the next it was "cold".
Secondly, BYD's "blade battery" was questioned.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, revealed at the forum of the Committee of Hundred Members for Electric Vehicles in China that the "blade battery" developed by BYD is a new generation of lithium iron phosphate battery with more than 300 core patents. The volume specific energy density is 50% higher than that of traditional batteries, and the vehicle life can reach more than one million kilometers, and it will be carried on the heavyweight flagship model listed in June 2020 for the first time.
When the concept of "blade battery" came out, BYD's stock rose sharply, but many media questioned BYD's exaggeration of the number of patents. In fact, it is only a physical transformation, without any battery revolution, and it is a pseudo-innovation.
On the surface, these two events are not directly related, but at a deeper level, both of them reflect the anxiety faced by China's new energy automobile industry.
From the sales volume of less than 65,438+0,000 vehicles in 2009 to 65,438+0,256,000 vehicles in 2065,438+08, a record, and then to 65,438+0,206,000 vehicles in 2065,438+09. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles in China has also experienced twists and turns in the past decade, and now it has reached a ".
Generally speaking, this anxiety is mainly manifested in four aspects, including the accelerated decline of subsidies, unknown market expectations, insufficient technology and intensified international competition.
The first is the anxiety caused by the accelerated retreat of subsidies.
By implementing the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has rapidly jumped to the level of one million vehicles. However, to some extent, this is a false prosperity, which is driven by subsidy policy rather than market demand. From July 2065438 to July 2009, subsidies for new energy vehicles declined further, and sales also declined. It has been declining for five consecutive months, which shows the strength of subsidy promotion.
According to the previous new energy automobile industry plan, the new energy subsidy policy will completely decline around 2020. Now, the time has reached 2020, and the subsidies for new energy vehicles are facing a complete decline (at least accelerated decline), while most enterprises are not ready for complete weaning, and consumers are also worried that new energy vehicles without subsidies can't afford to buy or use them, which is full of anxiety.
Secondly, the anxiety caused by unknown market expectations.
Although China has become the largest new energy vehicle market in the world, the mileage anxiety of 20 19 (especially in winter) new energy vehicles has not been completely solved. The spontaneous combustion accidents of new energy vehicles such as Tesla are frequent, and the safety anxiety has surfaced again, which makes it impossible for consumers to buy with confidence. In addition, the price challenge brought by the retreat of subsidy policy makes the expectation of the new energy vehicle market extremely unknown.
Although there are some quality and safety problems in new energy vehicles, there is no need to talk about it because of this. The popularization of new energy vehicles is, in the final analysis, a change of concept. In fact, in 20 19, the proportion of individuals buying new energy vehicles has been significantly improved, the confidence and acceptance of consumers buying new energy vehicles have been improved, and infrastructure such as charging piles have also developed rapidly.
The third is the anxiety caused by the lack of core technology.
Compared with the accelerated decline of subsidies and unknown market expectations, the anxiety caused by the lack of core technologies is more profound.
The development of new energy vehicles needs sufficient scientific research strength and resource allocation, and a set of production, sales and service supply chain and transportation system should be established around them. However, up to now, the basic theory and core technology of new energy vehicles have not achieved a breakthrough, the dispute over pure electric/hybrid route has not ended, hydrogen fuel cells have been killed halfway, and the technical route is still uncertain, which will profoundly affect the sustainable development of the industry.
In the long run, new energy vehicles are the development trend, and technology needs time to accumulate. The government, scientific research institutions, enterprises and universities need to increase investment and cooperate with each other to tackle key technologies such as battery materials and core chips, so as to realize international leading technology, industrialization and scale.
Finally, I have to say the anxiety caused by the intensification of international competition.
Previously, China's new energy automobile industry developed rapidly. Apart from the promotion of policies, many multinational brands and joint venture brands did not put new energy automobile products into the China market. Therefore, new energy automobile enterprises in China have gained a high market share, and many new car-making forces have emerged, such as Weilai, Tucki, Weimar and Ideality.
At the time of the accelerated decline in subsidies, joint venture brands have begun to launch new energy vehicle products. Throughout the major car companies, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and BMW have fully announced electrification. Even Toyota, which has been advocating hybrid technology, has officially entered the pure electric vehicle market. Tesla set up a factory in Shanghai and put it into production soon, aiming at the new energy vehicle market in China after 2020, leaving Weilai with no room for price reduction.
Foreign companies are accelerating the electrification process, and the competition between Chinese and foreign new energy automobile industries is imminent, which will lead to "increasing anxiety" after 2020.
Therefore, the anxiety behind the prosperity of new energy vehicles is the double oppression of policies and markets, which forces enterprises to upgrade rapidly.
After ten years of vigorous promotion, the production, sales and ownership of new energy vehicles in China ranked first in the world for four consecutive years, and to a certain extent, it achieved lane change overtaking and established certain first-Mover advantage and scale advantage, which made the global mainstream automobile enterprises begin to transform into new energy vehicles, especially pure electric technology routes, with remarkable achievements.
Stepping into 2020, no matter how to adjust the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, it means that the era of large subsidies for new energy vehicles has passed, and the new energy vehicle industry must face the market and meet the challenges.
Combined with the wave of the new four modernizations of automobiles, the century-old automobile industry is on the eve of the dawn of great change and reshuffle. Although the new energy subsidy policy will continue to decline, the incentive policies such as double points and road rights will continue to improve. With the intensification of competition between domestic and foreign car companies, the market will accelerate the reshuffle, and the development and upgrading of China's new energy automobile industry will slow down.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.