According to the latest annual report BP World Energy Statistics 2009 released by the most authoritative international energy statistics [1], Russia is an "energy superpower" comparable to Saudi Arabia in the world today, especially its natural gas resources (43.3 trillion cubic meters) account for 23.4% of the world's remaining proven reserves, with a reserve-production ratio of 72 years, making it the largest natural gas resource country in the world, with an annual output exceeding. Ukraine, on the other hand, is a country lacking in natural gas resources, its reserves are only 1/47(0.92 trillion cubic meters) of Russia, and its maximum output is only 20 billion cubic meters, which is far from its annual consumption of 60-70 billion cubic meters, of which about 25 billion cubic meters are made up by importing from Russia. At the same time, Russian natural gas accounts for 1/4 of European natural gas consumption, of which 80% passes through Ukrainian natural gas pipelines. As a result, the close interdependence between Russia and Ukraine in the energy field has paved the basic background for the dispute over natural gas between the two sides.
(In 2006, the "expired storm" between Russia and Ukraine triggered a natural gas dispute between the two countries.
Historically, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine is long and close. 1922 As a founding country, Ukraine and the Russian Federation jointly established the Soviet Union. With its vast land resources and huge economic scale, it has become the "granary" of the Soviet Union and the most important joining country after Russia. 199 1 Soviet Union After the August 19th Incident, Ukraine declared its independence, and then, together with Russia and Belarus, it announced the establishment of the "Commonwealth of Independent States" to replace the Soviet Union. Until the general election in Ukraine in 2004, Ukraine generally maintained good-neighborly relations with Russia.
Out of the "brotherhood" in the past, Russia has been supplying natural gas to Ukraine at subsidized prices.
However, since the "Orange Revolution" broke out in Ukraine at the end of 2004 and pro-Western President Yushchenko came to power, the Ukrainian government reversed its diplomatic tone, implemented a pro-American and pro-European policy, pursued NATO and the European Union, and was at odds with Russia on issues such as the Crimean naval base, and the contradiction deepened. Russia felt that it was no longer necessary to pay for Ukraine's "abandoning Russia and going west" economy, so it was convenient to ask for an increase in the price of natural gas supplied to Ukraine from $50 to $230 per thousand cubic meters at the end of 2005. However, Uzbekistan demands that the price of natural gas be increased by stages, and the transit fee of Russian natural gas should be calculated according to the market price. Due to the unsuccessful negotiations, Gazprom cut off the natural gas supply to Ukraine on New Year's Day in 2006, which triggered a "gas-cut storm" that attracted worldwide attention. It was not until June 4, 2006 that the two sides reached an agreement through consultation that ventilation was resumed. According to the agreement, Russia sells natural gas to "Russian-Ukrainian Energy Company" at a price of $230 per thousand cubic meters, which mixes Russian natural gas with natural gas from Central Asia and sells it to Ukraine at a price of $95 per thousand cubic meters; However, the transit fee for Russian natural gas exported to the EU through Uzbekistan was raised from $65,438+$0.09 per thousand cubic meters/100 kilometers to $65,438+$0.6.
(c) Political and economic incentives to stimulate the resumption of natural gas disputes
In 2007, Russia and Ukraine decided to gradually make the price of Russian gas supply to Ukraine equal to the international market in three years. Because Yushchenko's regime ignored Russia's repeated warnings and stubbornly adhered to the pro-American and "going to Russia and entering Europe" route, the political, economic, military and geostrategic spears and shields of Russia and Ukraine deteriorated day by day, and the voice of teaching Ukraine in Russia increased day by day, especially under the stimulation of the global financial crisis since 2008, the dispute over natural gas between the two countries intensified.
Russia can't wait to raise the price of natural gas exported to Ukraine. Ukraine tried its best to resist the price increase and demanded that Russia pay more for the use of transit pipelines. It also suggested that Gazprom sell natural gas directly to Ukrainian consumers [2].
Uzbekistan believes that the price of Russian natural gas to Ukraine in 2009 should be 20 1 USD per thousand cubic meters. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin claimed that the cost of supplying natural gas to Ukraine is about $380 per thousand cubic meters, mainly due to humanitarian factors, and considering Ukraine's difficult situation in the financial crisis, Russia made an offer of $250 to Ukraine [3]. Due to the sharp drop in international oil prices and the devaluation of the ruble, Russia is in urgent need of cash to support its domestic economy, so it is difficult to recover more than $2 billion in debt owed by Uzbekistan, of which $6140,000 is natural gas debt owed by Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Company. The economic recession and credit crisis have also made it more difficult for Ukraine to repay its debts in time. Russia also accused Ukraine of intercepting natural gas exported to Europe from time to time, demanding that Ukraine ensure the safety of natural gas transit in Ukraine and ensure that Russian natural gas can be transported to European countries unimpeded. Uzbekistan denied the Russian accusation and claimed that Russia's gas supply to Europe was insufficient.
(D) the twists and turns of the conflict process
(1) Controversy negotiation blocked: As early as June 2008, Russia proposed to nearly triple the price of gas supply to Ukraine. June165438+1October gas supply negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were blocked due to price and debt problems. On the 20th of this month, Russia asked Uzbekistan to pay $2.4 billion in gas arrears. However, Ukrainian oil and gas company claims that it has no debt problem with Gazprom. 65438+February 18 Gazprom announced that Russia would stop supplying gas from next year because Ukraine failed to pay off its debts. 12.30 Ukrainian prime minister Tymoshenko visited Russia on the same day and tried to solve the problem of natural gas supply between the two countries without success.
(2) The gas supply to Ukraine was cut off on June 65438+1 October1Moscow time 10, 2009. 6543810.5, the "fighting spirit" between Russia and Ukraine escalated, and the Ukrainian local court banned Russian natural gas from crossing the border. 65438+1October 7, Uzbekistan said that Russia was "forced to completely stop transmitting natural gas to EU countries" because it completely stopped transmitting natural gas to natural gas pipelines in Uzbekistan. In the past, the EU regarded the differences between Russia and Ukraine as "trade disputes between the two countries" and "economic affairs", saying that it would not intervene. However, when Russia and Ukraine "quarreled" this time, Europe happened to encounter rare snow and ice weather, and several EU member States experienced heating gas shortage and power supply difficulties, posing a serious threat to the production and people's lives in many European countries. At this point, there has been a major shift in the EU's position, and Russia and Ukraine are strongly urged to negotiate quickly and resume gas supply to the EU in an all-round way, otherwise "this issue will rise to the highest political level".
(3) Compromise to resolve disputes: Under international pressure, Russia and Ukraine agreed to reopen negotiations and accepted the proposal of the EU to hold a tripartite summit in Brussels to resolve disputes. Through the active mediation of the EU, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement on resuming gas supply to Europe through Ukraine on June 5438+1October 65438+1October, and agreed that the EU would send observers to supervise the transit gas transmission. 65438+1October 13 After Russia, Ukraine and the European Union signed a protocol on establishing a transit gas transmission supervision committee, Russia resumed gas supply to Europe through Ukraine. Unexpectedly, Ukraine and Russia later had disputes and accusations on the technical gas consumption of gas transmission lines and transit pipelines, and the transit natural gas still did not reach Europe. 17 10 17, the "international summit" of natural gas consuming countries initiated by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was held in the Kremlin. After 10 hours of hard negotiations, Russia and Ukraine finally announced on the morning of 18 that they had reached an agreement: under the condition of keeping the transit price unchanged in 2008 (65,438+0.7 USD per thousand cubic meters/100 kilometers), Russia will give Ukraine a 20% gas supply price discount on the basis of the European price in 2009. At the same time, it is agreed that from 10, 2065438+65438 in 00+ 1, the price of natural gas in Russia and Ukraine and the transit fee will be generated in full accordance with the European price formula [5]. 19 10 19, Gazprom and Ukrainian oil and gas company signed an agreement in Moscow to end this natural gas dispute and promise to resume gas supply to Europe. 65438+1On October 20th, Russia resumed gas supply to Europe via Ukraine. At this point, this time lasted for nearly three weeks, leading to the end of the "dead knock" dispute that nearly 20 European countries suffered from energy shortage crisis in the cold winter.
On March 23, 2009, Ukraine, the European Commission, the World Bank, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development signed a joint declaration on the modernization of Ukraine's gas transmission system in Brussels, hoping that the natural gas crisis similar to that in the winter of 2008 would not happen again. On June165438+1October 19, Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin held talks in Yalta, a tourist city in southern Ukraine, and the two sides agreed to amend some terms of the natural gas agreement signed in early 2009. 165438+1On October 25th, Sergei Kuprianoff, spokesman of Gazprom, said that in 20 10, Russia will export natural gas to Ukraine at European price, and the estimated annual average price is about US$ 280 per thousand cubic meters. 10 on February 29th, Russian and Ukrainian oil companies reached an agreement in Moscow on Russian oil transiting Ukraine and transporting it to eastern European countries, thus alleviating people's worries that Russian oil transiting Ukraine and transporting it to European countries in 20 10 was blocked.
2010 April 2 1 day, Ukrainian president Yanukovych and Russian president Dmitry Medvedev held talks in the eastern Ukrainian city of kharkov. The two sides reached important agreements on a series of issues such as the price of natural gas and the stationing of the Black Sea Fleet. According to the agreement signed after the talks between the presidents of the two countries, Russia agreed to sell natural gas to Ukraine at a reduced price of about 30% on the basis of the original contract price, while Ukraine agreed to extend the stationing period of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine for 25 years, and both sides have the right to choose whether to extend it for another 5 years after the expiration of this period.
Although Ukraine has actively improved its relations with Russia, it has not given up its foreign policy of joining the European Union, and has been vague about joining the customs union composed of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
On March 30, 20 12, Ukraine and the European union initialled the contact country agreement, and the two sides plan to sign the contact country treaty on March 28, 20 1 13/kloc-0. This move was strongly opposed by Russia. Since then, trade frictions between the two sides have continued. Russian President Vladimir Putin even warned that if Ukraine signed an agreement with the European Union, the customs union headed by Russia would be forced to take protective measures.
20 13 10 3 1, Golubev, vice chairman of the board of Gazprom, confirmed that if the problem of Ukraine's arrears is not solved, Russia will adopt the gas supply prepayment mechanism for Ukraine from 1 1, when Ukraine needs to pay in advance 1. Russia-Ukraine gas dispute resumed. According to the information office of the Russian Federal Government, Gazprom has not received the natural gas supply fee from Uzbekistan in August, amounting to 882 million US dollars, and the final payment period is 10, 1. 165438+1On October 5, Russian gas spokesman Kuprianoff confirmed that Ukraine had begun to repay the arrears of gas supply to Russia in August; Stavitski, Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine, said on the 7th that Ukraine had paid 20% of the arrears of gas supply to Gazprom in August and settled the gas supply fee in June of 20 13. According to another data, Ukraine has paid the Russian gas supply fee in September in full.
20 1 1 65438+1October1,Russian media reported that Ukrainian oil and gas company completely stopped importing Russian natural Gazprom June165438+1October 8.
Ukraine's natural gas imports from Russia decreased sharply in February 2065438+2004. A natural gas trade war similar to that in 2065438+2003+01June may break out between Russia and Ukraine. At that time, the Ukrainian Prime Minister threatened to stop importing natural gas into Russia if the agreed price was not revised. Yesterday, Ukraine's currency, the Grivner, fell to a record low against the US dollar, because Russia warned Ukraine that it must repay its debt of US$ 3 billion and may no longer provide loans of US$ 654.38+02 billion.
Reuters learned from two Russian energy professionals that on February 24th, Ukrainian state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz imported natural gas from Gazprom, Russia's largest natural gas producer, down to 28 million cubic meters per day, while in June, it was as high as 1 47 million cubic meters per day.
Two sources said that Naftogaz gradually reduced its imports in more than 20 days, but they did not give the reason for the reduction.
20 13, 13 In late February, Russia announced that it would spend1500 million dollars to buy Ukrainian bonds and temporarily cut the price of natural gas supplied to Ukraine by one third. But on Monday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev hinted that the price of Russian natural gas exported to Ukraine may be adjusted back.
Russia is Ukraine's largest trading partner. Ukraine consumes about 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, more than half of which is imported from Russia. In 20 13, Gazprom exported161500 million cubic meters of natural gas to Europe. Just ten days before 20 13, 1 1, Russia and Ukraine almost terminated their trade relations due to serious differences in the price of natural gas agreements. Naftogaz 2013165438+10. On October 8th, the import of natural gas to Gazprom was completely stopped. As of the 8th, Naftogaz11+10 imported only about 9 million cubic meters/day, far lower than10.04 million cubic meters/day in10. At that time, Ukrainian Prime Minister mykola azarov said that if Gazprom refused to amend the natural gas sales agreement, Ukraine would no longer import natural gas from Russia.
According to the prepayment agreement of imported natural gas signed by former Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko and Gazprom in 2009, the average price of natural gas exported by Russia to Ukraine is about 400 USD per 1000 m3. After the signing of the agreement, Ukraine once accused this import price of being too high, which is the highest level in Europe.
20 14 On February 25th, just as Reuters reported that the natural gas trade relationship between Ukraine and Russia was tense again, Russian Finance Minister Lu Si Anoff publicly stated in an interview with Russian TV channel that Ukraine had no reason not to repay the $3 billion invested by Russia in Ukrainian European bonds.
On the same day, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Stolchak said that Russia has no legal obligation to provide Ukraine with the $654.38+02 billion decided in 2065.438+03. At that time, Russia promised to contribute $654.38+0.5 billion, and now the remaining $654.38+0.2 billion has not been implemented.
According to the ITAR-TASS news agency, Stolchak said: There is no such legal obligation. What I mean here is a new round of negotiations and a new agreement. The form of negotiation and agreement will be decided by time. On the same day, the price of Ukrainian three-month bonds fell sharply. The Ukrainian currency Grivner plunged 6.8%, hitting a new high in February 2009, while Grivner fell to 9.8 against the US dollar, a record low.
Last weekend, the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych, and pro-Western Turchinov became acting president. Ukraine's transitional government issued a wanted order to Yanukovych on Monday, saying it needed $35 billion in aid to avoid default.
In response to last weekend's incident in Ukraine, Russia yesterday threatened to restrict Ukrainian food imports. Russia imports 25% of the total grain exported by Ukraine.
20 14 on February 25th, the EU and IMF are ready to provide assistance to Ukraine.