The price increase has become a fact.
Neon, krypton and xenon in rare gases are mainly used in aerospace, medical and health, semiconductor and other fields. Russia and Ukraine are both important exporters of rare gases in the world. Prior to this, Russia and Ukraine exported neon and other rare gases to many countries and regions in the world. On May 30, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade said that in response to the sanctions imposed on Russia by Europe and the United States, Russia will restrict the export of rare gases such as neon by the end of 2022. Since February 24th, Ukraine, the world's largest exporter of rare gases, suspended the production of rare gases, which aggravated the supply shortage of neon, krypton and xenon.
According to Yue, 70% of neon, 40% of krypton and 30% of xenon in the world are supplied by Ukraine. As for the high-purity rare gas used in semiconductors, according to the data quoted by Reuters from the semiconductor market research institute Techcet, 45%~54% of the world's semiconductor-grade neon gas is supplied by two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin. Techcet estimates that the global neon consumption for chip production in 20021year is about 540 tons.
Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two major neon suppliers in Ukraine were forced to stop production, which led to an increase in the price of rare gases. According to Yue, at the beginning of May, the national neon gas rose from 600 yuan /m3 to 654.38+0.55 million yuan /m3, and the increase of krypton and xenon gas was even more outrageous. The average market price of krypton gas soared from about 6.5438+0.000 million yuan /m3 to about 32,000 yuan /m3, and xenon gas soared to about 380,000 yuan /m3. The report released by Techcet shows that although the export ban announced by Russia has limited impact on the current market, it will lead to an extension of the supply shortage cycle.
The rising price of rare gas will also have an impact on its downstream industries, especially the rare gas belongs to the upstream industry of chip storage manufacturing. According to industry insiders, rare gases such as krypton, xenon and neon are very important for chip storage manufacturing. Rare gases such as neon and helium are mainly used in semiconductor, liquid crystal display, optical fiber and other fields. In particular, neon is very important for the stability of the chip manufacturing process.
Or become a new opportunity for related industries in China.
Yue introduced that there is no problem in the supply of rare gas in China. In 202 1 year, China's krypton gas production capacity is about 50,000 cubic meters/year, and most of them are exported abroad. In the same period, China's xenon production capacity is about 5,000m3/year, and neon production capacity is about 400,000m3/year. China's rare gas basically meets the domestic demand, and neon can also be exported in large quantities. However, according to the international market price, the price of rare gases in China will still fluctuate accordingly.
Fu predicted that the international market will still show an upward trend in the future. Judging from the current situation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will bring supply chain risks to major semiconductor producers in the world, promote the speculative trend in the market, and cause price fluctuations of rare gases such as neon, xenon and krypton, and even the possibility of skyrocketing. "The current situation may not only be an opportunity for China to get rid of restrictions from other countries in industries like chips, but also an opportunity for China to build a fist industry." Yan said.
Ju believes that supporting construction enterprises of large-scale air separation plants should be encouraged to invest heavily in rare gas extraction devices at present. This can not only improve the construction capacity of rare gas extraction equipment in China, meet the demand of rare gas in China, but also seize the blank in the international market. However, at present, rare gases are listed in the list of dangerous chemicals in China, which may be an unfavorable factor hindering the development of rare gas industry in China. He said: "All rare gases and general gases are included in the list of dangerous chemicals, which hinders the development of the industry." He explained that if general gases such as rare gases can be exempted or removed from the Catalogue of Dangerous Chemicals and the Catalogue of Dangerous Goods, the construction and transportation of production projects and recovery projects of general gases such as rare gases can be promoted, which will be very beneficial to the production capacity growth of rare gases in China.
The Asia-Pacific region has begun to actively respond.
Insiders in the chip industry said that from the short-term situation analysis, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has little impact on the global chip market. Although rare gas plays a vital role in chip manufacturing, the amount of rare gas needed for chip manufacturing is very small, and many chip manufacturing enterprises have already reserved rare gas in advance, which will not have much impact in a short time. Of course, in the long run, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will bring about a long-term interruption of Ukrainian production, and it is possible for Russia to further reduce supply after restricting exports.
Different regions have different feelings about the supply pressure of rare gases. According to industry insiders, South Korea is the country most dependent on the import of rare gases, and there is no large gas production company in South Korea that can increase the output of rare gases in a short time. However, South Korea's main import source is China, accounting for about half of the total imports, and Ukrainian supply accounts for about 20%. At present, Korean companies are not too nervous about the supply of rare gases. In March, the South Korean government exempted the import tariffs on neon, krypton and xenon, which reduced the import pressure of enterprises. In addition, Posco has realized the localized production of neon gas in Korea, and it is estimated that it can meet 16% of Korea's own demand at present.
In Japan, only a very small amount of rare gases can be produced in Japan. For example, oceanic acid only produces 2000 m3/ year krypton gas and 250 m3/ year xenon gas in Japan, and does not produce neon gas. However, the main import sources of Japanese rare gases are China, France and the United States, which are not affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the time being. In April, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry also announced that it plans to ensure the supply of special gases used in semiconductor manufacturing by the end of this year, support the introduction and research and development of gas recycling equipment, improve the manufacturing capacity of domestic manufacturers, and strengthen supply chain cooperation with the United States. Dayang Ri Acid also said that the company will expand the production capacity of rare gases.