May 16 central bank? Bond pass? The release of the joint declaration marks the mainland and Hong Kong? Bond pass? Enter the substantive promotion stage. It is clear in the announcement that the bond pass will be gradually opened. North first, then south? That is, open the north first and then open the south. So what? Bond pass? What impact will it have on the domestic bond market? The following is the knowledge I brought to you about the impact analysis of bond pass on the domestic bond market. Welcome to reading.
The main impact on an overseas institution is the purchase of government bonds and government bonds.
Judging from the investment preferences of existing foreign investors, it is expected that the investment demand of bond investors will still be mainly concentrated in government bonds and government bonds, mainly because such bonds have a high international rating.
In addition, as the highest proportion of local debt in the past two years, there is still some uncertainty about whether local debt can be recognized by overseas investors. Judging from the current holding structure, foreign-funded institutions have not yet allocated a large proportion of local bonds, but it does not rule out that local bonds will gradually enter the field of foreign investment in the future.
Impact 2: Bonds with international ratings or overseas bond issuance records are expected to become investment targets.
Foreign investors still have an inherent demand for rating, especially in obtaining information. Issuers with international ratings are more attractive.
In addition, for issuers who have issued bonds in the Hong Kong market or listed in Hong Kong, the information disclosure of this issuer is relatively more adequate, which is more credible and attractive to overseas investors.
The short-term impact on the domestic bond market is limited.
On the one hand, compared with the current bond investment situation of overseas investment institutions and the current situation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, we believe that the scale of bonds covered by Bond Connect in the short term is relatively limited;
On the other hand, the expectation of RMB depreciation still exists, the capital flow is still under control, and the actual scale of bond connection is relatively limited compared with the whole bond market.
Impact 4: Long-term promotion of domestic rating gradually in line with international rating.
Considering that the issuer of the bond that Bond Connect won the bid may have both domestic and international ratings, for domestic investors, it can better distinguish the actual differences of domestic ratings, and may gradually bring the rating standards of international ratings into the domestic market, so international ratings have more reference significance in investment.
Especially the future bond pass? Southbound? After the opening up, domestic market investors have a deeper understanding of international rating, and the integration of international rating and domestic rating is smoother.
Based on the current opening of the domestic bond market, domestic investors should pay more attention to the landing and progress of southbound communication in the future, and it is suggested to make active preparations.
Reflections on the key elements of bond communication
? Bond pass? For what? Allow overseas funds to buy mainland bonds overseas? , with stocks? Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect? what's up Shanghai Stock Connect? Very similar. Bond-linked investment targets may include the Ministry of Finance (treasury bonds), policy banks (treasury bonds), commercial banks (bank bonds) and other corporate issuers with international ratings. Investors may require qualified investors to have certain requirements on asset scale or risk tolerance; The settlement currency may be mainly offshore RMB; The trading market corresponds to the domestic bond market, CMU is connected to the interbank market, and HKEx is connected to the Shanghai Stock Exchange or Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
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