The era of developing the economy by selling land has passed. Relying on economic innovation to develop a new economy is an inevitable choice to achieve long-term sustainable development. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out the relevant knowledge of economy. Let's have a look!
Income from land sales has dropped by 30%. Why did it fall?
Regarding the reasons for the sharp drop in land transfer fees, Zhu Daolin believes that as a factor of production, the market demand for land will inevitably be directly affected by the development of the real economy and the macroeconomic trend, so it is normal for the scale of land transfer to fluctuate in different periods.
"In addition, since the beginning of this year, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and the international political and economic situation, China's economic growth rate has declined, and the corresponding land market demand has also declined. Moreover, over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has entered the late stage of urbanization and industrial development, and the demand for various construction land is also declining. Under these comprehensive factors, it is inevitable that the scale of land transfer will decline. " Zhu Daolin said.
Cheng, deputy dean of Wang Jian Law School of Soochow University, holds a similar view. "There are accidental reasons and long-term inevitable reasons behind the sharp drop in land transfer fees in the first half of 2022. The accidental reason is that the epidemic has affected the operation of administrative departments in many cities, and it is difficult for housing enterprises to start work offline, which has affected market confidence; The inevitable reason is that the housing market in China is close to saturation ".
Scholars interviewed believe that it is urgent to start deepening reform.
However, CIIC Research Institute, a real estate research institution, integrated the proportion of land transfer fees in general public budget revenue of major cities in China from 20 17 to 20021year, and analyzed the financial dependence of major cities in China on land, among which the values of Hangzhou, Buddha, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Xi 'an all exceeded 100%, while those of Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Xi 'an all exceeded.
This means that even in the late stage of urbanization, land transfer fees still far exceed taxes and are the main source of local finance.
Regarding the inertia of local land dependence, Liu Shouying, dean of the School of Economics of China Renmin University, pointed out in an interview with Caijing that in the past few decades, the rapidly expanding "land finance" has helped the government accumulate original capital at an unprecedented speed. At the same time, the land transfer fee has supported the infrastructure construction of hundreds of cities in China, and effectively promoted the economic development, urbanization and industrialization of China. However, with the slowdown of urbanization and the accumulation of many potential problems in the "land development" model, the function of land as an engine of economic growth will be difficult to continue.
Zhu Daolin also believes that "urban land is limited, and local governments cannot sell land forever; Even if there is still land to sell, it still depends on the land demanders, that is, whether anyone is willing to buy it; Moreover, the land market will always be affected by economic fluctuations. "
In fact, more than a decade ago, there were opinions calling on local governments to start economic transformation and get rid of the dependence on land finance, and pointed out the potential negative impact of land finance. However, these appeals have had little effect. In the past ten years, the proportion of land transfer fees in local fiscal revenue has increased from nearly 60% in 20 13 to more than 90% in 202 1 year.
In this regard, Cheng said: "For a long time, the attitude of local governments has been' income is ok' and' life can go on', so they lack the motivation to reform and do not feel the necessity of reform. Reform is driven by the crisis, and' no money' as an inducement can greatly change the attitude of local governments to muddle along. Therefore, in my opinion, the decline of land transfer income is not so much a crisis of local governments as an opportunity to promote reform and increase the driving force of local economic transformation. So this is not a bad thing, but actually meets the requirements of change. "
However, Cheng also admitted that in the short term, the decrease in land sales revenue cannot be compensated by the increase in other production capacity, which means that local development will enter a "painful period".
Live a tight life and get rid of path dependence
Tracing back to the origin of the land finance model, it is not difficult to find that after the tax-sharing reform of 1994, the financial resources and powers of local governments are not equal, and it is urgent to expand the sources of income. In addition, the rapid development of the real estate market has driven the rapid growth of land-related income, making local governments more dependent on land finance driven by vested interests. This has also led to the "short-term" behavior of local governments, focusing on the pursuit of immediate economic growth.
Based on the above premise, many scholars believe that "land dividend" has formed a path dependence and thinking dependence on local governments.
On the one hand, it is a long-term path dependence, on the other hand, it needs to face the reality that the land transfer fee has dropped sharply. Gan Lu, associate professor of the School of Economics of the Central University of Finance and Economics and director of the Center for Public Policy Research, expressed his concern. "This is likely to have an impact on local public services, such as education, social security, medical insurance and infrastructure. For example, the enthusiasm of staff will be affected and administrative efficiency will be reduced."
In this regard, Cheng suggested that in the face of fiscal austerity, the government should reduce expenditure and use funds where they are most needed. "There is no money in hand, and the solution is actually to open source and reduce expenditure. To put it bluntly, open source means tax increase, but this is definitely not possible. The state has been stepping up efforts to implement a large-scale VAT refund policy, and it is impossible for everyone to pay more taxes. It is important to reduce expenses. For less urgent projects, such as widening roads and repairing subways, there is no need for local governments to allocate funds and start construction in the near future. "
In addition, the risks that may be caused by the real estate industry, which is closely related to land finance, deserve further consideration and study.
Lan Xiaohuan, a professor at Fudan University School of Economics, has publicly stated that the real power of land is not fully reflected in "land finance", but funds such as bank credit instigated by land as collateral. In his view, once the "land finance" is grafted with the capital market and leveraged, it forms a "land finance", snowballing, promoting rapid economic development and creating more and more debts for local governments.
In China, real estate enterprises have been relying on high leverage and high turnover to achieve rapid expansion. Even the real estate head enterprises use this model. The specific operation is that after the real estate enterprise takes the land, it starts work quickly, so that the project can meet the pre-sale conditions. After receiving the advance payment, the advance payment will be collected in various ways, and then a new round of land acquisition, construction, advance payment and advance payment will be started.
In Cheng's view, the past real estate development model has brought risks and obstacles to the local economic transformation.
"It is precisely because the central government saw the risks behind it that it began to carry out reforms and made great determination to get rid of the old development model of real estate." Cheng said to him.
In recent years, the central government has always adhered to the basic principle of "no housing speculation" in a number of regulatory policies on the real estate market, so that the relationship between supply and demand in the market can really play a role and guide capital to flow to other industries. It also requires local governments with the responsibility of regulating the main body to make precise policies, one city and one policy, which not only avoids overheating of the market, but also prevents ups and downs and promotes the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Forcing the development model to change.
On April 12, 2022, China Yin Jian Investment Co., Ltd. and Social Science Literature Publishing House jointly issued the Report on Investment Development in China (hereinafter referred to as the Report).
According to the report, although the overall peak of the real estate market is not far off, it does not mean that China's economic development no longer needs real estate, or even that its dependence on real estate is rapidly declining. In the past decade, with the vigorous development of the real estate market, land transfer income has become the most important source of fiscal revenue in most cities, and only real estate tax can replace land finance. In Europe and America, real estate tax is the main source of local fiscal revenue.
Zhu Daolin said that real estate tax is essentially a kind of "tax land finance", which is a financial income supported by collecting various land taxes. "From the tithe tax in ancient Europe to the real estate tax in modern European and American countries, as well as the taxes of several dynasties in China's history, this is also the main financial source of these dynasties and countries. More importantly,' tax land finance' is more sustainable than the' property land finance' obtained by local governments now. " Zhu Daolin believes.
However, the above report also pointed out that although the central government has begun to guide the fundamental reform of land finance, it will take a long time. At present, we can only curb the impulse of local over-investment, but it is too early to cut off local dependence on land finance.
Therefore, compared with the development of "tax land finance", Zhu Daolin believes that it is a more realistic choice to develop the real economy in a down-to-earth manner. At the same time, he stressed that even if the development speed slows down or even the economy declines in the short term, as long as the development mode is changed in time and high-tech industries and the real economy are developed, there is still a way out for future development.
Gan Lu reminded that the local development of high-tech industries needs to seek truth from facts. "At present, investment attraction in all places is concentrated on chips, semiconductors and new energy vehicles, but not all places are suitable for developing these industries. It is very good for some local governments to do small and micro enterprises well, so don't aim too high. Otherwise, in the end, not only will the industry not develop, but it will also cost a lot of money, which is not worth the candle. "
On this basis, Hecheng believes that local governments should revitalize existing assets, formulate corresponding rules and regulations, improve laws and regulations and realize the development of existing assets on the basis of clear property rights.
"Some stock assets may be mortgaged. In this case, how to revitalize resources and make the best use of them requires more detailed rules and regulations. But now this piece is blank, and the localities should make it up as soon as possible and optimize the industrial structure as soon as possible. " Gan Lu said.
In addition, in 2022, as a means to lay a solid foundation for the development of the digital economy and expand effective investment, "new infrastructure" was written into local government work reports many times, becoming an important starting point for building a new economic growth engine. In Cheng's view, the new infrastructure can fully meet the business needs of upstream and downstream enterprises that originally relied on the real estate market, such as cement and steel bars, and maintain economic growth while stabilizing employment.
"For today's China, spending money to repair railways is more inspiring than buying land to build houses." Cheng said: "Now it is necessary to activate a huge local government accustomed to path dependence. Let it move, not only the brain, but also the body. "
In this regard, Gan Lu suggested: "An experimental area can be set up for local transformation. In the experimental area, the assessment criteria of officials and the responsibility and power structure of local governments have been redesigned. In this way, while conducting new explorations, the risks are also controllable. "