The latest "National Housing Prosperity Index" calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the vacant area of commercial housing in China increased by 14. 1% from June to August 2005, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year. Among them, the area of commercial housing vacant for more than one year was 43.97 million square meters, up 1 1.5% year-on-year. By July 2002, the number of vacant commercial housing reached more than 250 billion yuan, ranking first among the non-performing assets in various industries. However, the investment in real estate development continues to grow rapidly and is expected to reach about 25% by the end of the year. The pressure on vacant houses has increased dramatically.
According to the statistics of China Trust Quarterly, in the fourth quarter of 2003, 34 trust companies issued 87 collective trust products, raising a total of 8.66 billion yuan. Among them, there are 37 real estate trusts, raising 3.5 billion yuan, ranking first among all kinds of trust products, and the yield of real estate trusts is also high. Take only a dozen investment products recently launched in Beijing as an example, and the expected annual rate of return is mostly above 4%. Among them, the expected rate of return of the "Financial Street Office Project Loan Trust Plan" is 4.6%, the estimated annual rate of return of the French Auchan Tianjin 1 Store property right project is 6%, and the "First City" property right investment and wealth management project even reaches 8%. The expected rate of return is much higher than the interest rate of bank deposits in the same period, and generally higher than the rate of return on national debt investment.
But what is certain is that there are high risks hidden behind high returns. Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Securities of China Renmin University, said that according to the provisions of the Trust Law, trust products are not equivalent to the creditor-debtor relationship like deposits. The yield of trust products is expected income, not final income. This means that the expected rate of return mentioned by developers and trust companies in the leaflets is by no means "certain", and it is likely to change due to various risk factors. Even if the final yield is much lower, investors can only acquiesce, because the law does not protect the expected yield of trust products.
3 Countermeasures to prevent the real estate bubble in the financial industry
Generally speaking, China's current measures to prevent the real estate bubble mainly include the following two aspects:
3. 1 Improve the real estate financial system and establish an early warning system to nip in the bud.
China's banking industry is involved in real estate credit business under the condition of imperfect financial system. From the external environment, China's personal credit system, mortgage system and mortgage insurance mechanism are not perfect; From the internal mechanism, there are many vulnerabilities in Chinese banks, such as insufficient capital, high non-performing assets and low level of asset-liability management, which will increase the risk of real estate credit. However, in the face of the impact of financial globalization and the pressure to reduce the spread many times, China's banking industry urgently needs to find new profit growth points, and emerging real estate credit, especially personal housing mortgage loans, has become an ideal choice for the banking industry. Personal housing mortgage loan is a good asset, but if it is held too high, it will also increase the cost of capital and operational risks. This is the truth that "eggs cannot be put in one basket". In the United States, personal housing mortgage loans only account for 18% of the assets of commercial banks and 50% of the assets of mortgage banks. Bank funds from different sources will have different uses. In Hong Kong, banks should dynamically track the quality of loans in a timely manner. Therefore, China's banking industry should start with infrastructure construction to improve its ability to resist financial risks; Financial supervision departments should improve the development of credit system, mortgage system, mortgage insurance and mortgage secondary market from the perspective of system construction, so as to promote the synchronous development of real estate industry and financial industry.
3.2 Flexible use of interest rates and tax policies to regulate the real estate market.
In the past two years, the real estate craze was formed to some extent under the stimulus of the government's macro-control policies. It is understandable that low interest rates and tax relief policies are conducive to stimulating effective demand when the economy shrinks. However, implementing a policy for a long time or ignoring the beneficiaries to implement the same policy may send the wrong signal to the market. Repeated interest rate cuts and low capital costs will induce many enterprises and individuals to set foot in high-risk investments, leading to mistakes in market resource allocation. In order to guide enterprises to invest and develop more in line with market demand, the government should raise the loan interest rate of investment villas, high-grade apartments, high-grade entertainment facilities and office buildings in a timely manner, and raise the loan interest rate of non-owner-occupied individuals, so that the low-interest policy can better tilt towards low-income people; The city government should also levy real estate tax on high-grade real estate, and can adopt progressive tax. For China, which is still in the development stage, this will help to curb rampant extravagance and waste, and realize urbanization and industrialization with limited and precious resources.