In the past five trading days, the air transport index (Shenwan) rose by nearly 20%, ranking first in Shenwan's secondary industry index. The annual report of airlines shows that the exchange loss in 20 18 was heavy. Among the three aviation central enterprises, China Air China lost 2.377 billion yuan, China Eastern Airlines lost 2.040 billion yuan and China Southern Airlines lost 65.438+74.2 billion yuan.
Then, why are aviation stocks that have suffered large exchange losses favored by investors?
The three major airlines all failed in this project.
Recently, the three major aviation central enterprises have successively handed over their business transcripts for 20 18.
In 20 18, the operating income of the three aviation central enterprises totaled nearly 400 billion yuan, all of which showed a double-digit growth trend. Among them, the total operating income of China Southern Airlines, Air China and China Eastern Airlines were 65.438+04.3623 billion yuan, 65.438+03.674 billion yuan and 65.438+06.438+04.930 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 654.38+02.66% and 654.38+02.70 respectively.
The profit performance is not very optimistic. The net profit of the three airlines added up to 654.38+03.028 billion yuan, compared with 654.38+09.506 billion yuan last year. In 20 18, the net profit of China Eastern Airlines decreased by 57.35% and that of China Southern Airlines decreased by 49.56%. Only Air China maintained positive growth, but the growth rate was only 1.33%.
20 18 revenue and net profit growth of the three major airlines
Where is the profit?
20 18 RMB exchange rate rose first and then fell. At the end of 20 18, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8632 yuan, down 4.8% from the end of last year. From the peak of April 20 18 to the low of June 1 1, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 6906 basis points, that is, 1 1%.
20 18 USD versus RMB.
In this context, those enterprises that have a large demand for US dollars or have more US dollar debts have been hit hard. In 2065438+2008, airlines were undoubtedly among the best in the list of exchange losses of A-share listed companies.
According to the annual report data of the above three major airlines, the exchange losses of the three airlines in 20 18 all exceeded 65,438 billion yuan: China Air China 2,377 million yuan, China Eastern Airlines 2,040 million yuan and China Southern Airlines/kloc-0,742 million yuan, accounting for 32.39% and 75.5% of the company's net profit in 20 18 respectively.
Obviously, a considerable part of operating profit has been swallowed up by exchange losses. Without this loss, the profit data of the three major airlines 20 18 would obviously look much better.
Not just the three major airlines. At present, among the A-share listed 10 air transport enterprises, 6 have published their annual reports for 20 18, all of which have suffered exchange losses, with a total loss of 6.227 billion yuan. Among the six companies, except Air China and CITIC Haizhi, the net profit showed obvious negative growth.
With the publication of annual reports of other companies, the exchange loss of aviation sector 20 18 may increase further. Take HNA Holdings as an example, the exchange loss disclosed in its 20 18 report reached 233 million yuan. Judging from the data of the three major airlines, the exchange loss in the second half of 20 18 is far more than that in the first half.
Triple cycle superposition aviation stocks fly high
According to statistics, in the past five trading days, the air transport index (Shenwan) rose by 19.75%, ranking first in the secondary industry of 103 Shenwan.
China Eastern Airlines, with the most obvious negative growth in net profit at 20 18, is the leader in the sector. In five days, China Eastern Airlines gained 30.59%. In addition, China Southern Airlines rose 19.58%, Air China rose 18.43%, and HNA Holdings rose 15.64%.
Since the beginning of the year, the air transport index (Shenwan) has increased by 47.42%, of which China Eastern Airlines has increased by 73.47%.
How did the aviation stocks with large exchange losses fly?
In terms of supply and demand, according to the institutional research report, the current air transport demand is relatively stable, and supply has the greatest marginal impact on the supply and demand pattern. The industry expects that the Boeing incident may lead to a slowdown in supply in this industry this year and next. In the off-season, airlines can still reduce the impact through capacity allocation, but in the peak season, the elasticity of supply and demand will be enlarged, which will help the fare increase.
In terms of oil prices, international oil prices have rebounded since the end of 20 18. This week, Brent crude oil futures price stood at the $70 mark, but many institutions believe that there may be little room for further increase in oil prices in the afternoon. According to the report of Guo Jin Securities, under the neutral hypothesis, the average price of Brent crude oil is 70 USD/barrel, and the year-on-year increase of 20 19 is 4. 1%, -6.6%, -7.7% and 1.4% respectively. The pressure of rising fuel costs of airlines has decreased, and aviation stocks as a whole have turned bullish.
In terms of exchange rate, since the beginning of 20 19, the RMB has experienced a wave of rapid appreciation against the US dollar. According to statistics, in the first quarter of 20 19, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 1.89%, the largest since the third quarter of 20 18.
As the margin of supply and demand tightens, the exchange rate of oil prices has changed from extremely unfavorable to relatively friendly, and civil aviation has reduced taxes and fees. Some industry analysts can't help shouting slogans such as "air transport benefits are piling up like a mountain", "three-cycle * * * vibration" and "aviation stocks have just started to double their space".
According to the calculation of Wu Yifan and Liu Yang of Huachuang Securities, the RMB depreciated by about 5% in 20 18, and the oil price rose by about 28%, which brought more than 654.38+0 billion profit losses to the three major airlines. 20 19 with the improvement of the oil and foreign exchange environment, we should look at the profit increase brought by oil and foreign exchange from the perspective of marginal thinking.
This is the key to the pressure of aviation stocks.
Some people are happy and others are worried about exchange rate fluctuations.
Exchange rate fluctuations affect far more than air transport enterprises.
The data shows that as of April 6th, * * * 10 13 A-share listed companies have disclosed the exchange gain and loss data of 20 18, among which 328 companies have positive exchange gains and losses and 668 companies have negative exchange gains and losses in 20 18. It is understood that negative exchange gains and losses represent exchange gains and positive exchange losses represent exchange losses.
These 328 companies that suffered exchange losses totaled 654.38+06.306 billion yuan.
By industry (Shenwan first-class industry, the same below), the transportation industry has become the "hardest hit", with 27 companies losing a total of 6.848 billion yuan; Real estate enterprises are also seriously injured, with 23 companies losing a total of 2.598 billion yuan; Furthermore, in the electronics industry, 2 1 company lost a total of 654,380.429 billion yuan; In addition, the losses of public utilities and machinery and equipment industries are also obvious.
From the company's point of view, in 20 18 years, there were 28 listed companies whose exchange losses exceeded the total net profit 10%, and 6 companies exceeded 50%.
Since 20 19, with the stable operation of RMB exchange rate, the exchange losses suffered by these industries and enterprises may be reduced, and even the income may be increased to a certain extent.
On the contrary, enterprises that benefited from RMB depreciation in 20 18 years may find it difficult to continue to benefit.
According to the available data, China Petroleum and China Petrochemical are the biggest beneficiaries of RMB exchange rate fluctuation in 20 18. They are 2011450,000 yuan and 596 million yuan respectively. In addition, the foreign exchange earnings of China Jiao Jian and ZTE both exceeded 500 million yuan, while those of cosl, TCL and CIMC all exceeded 300 million yuan.
In terms of industries, chemical industry, building decoration, automobile and other industries have benefited relatively obviously.
Compared with net profit, 96 listed companies accounted for more than 65,438+00%, 65,438+04 companies accounted for more than 50%, and 5 companies accounted for more than 65,438+000%. According to the data of the annual report, in 2065438+2008, cosl realized exchange gains of 359 million yuan, while the company's annual net profit was 70,802,300 yuan.
(Article Source: china securities journal)