There will be different leading enterprises in different time periods.
On July 13, the share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. reached the highest intraday price of 579.6 yuan, and its total market value exceeded10.3 trillion yuan, surpassing China Merchants Bank in one fell swoop and ranking fourth in the market value of A shares, only next to Maotai, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank. As a result, Zeng Yuquan, the actual helm of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., is also worth more than Ma Yun, second only to Ma.
Although the A-share lithium battery sector has fallen recently, the growth rate of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. in the past year has exceeded 1.90%, and the Growth Enterprise Market has even been nicknamed Ningde Board.
In contrast, the net profit of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in 2020 is less than 6 billion yuan. Why does contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. prop up trillion market value?
What does Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. do well?
Not long ago, it was reported that in order to get the battery, the chairman of Xpeng Motors was squatting at the door of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.
Of course, this matter has been clarified by He himself, which is not true, but we can also see how tight the battery in the hands of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd..
In fact, contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. was established as early as 20 1 1, but you should know that this company was originally spun off from an ATL that made mobile phone batteries. However, after only 10 years, it has achieved the first market share of power batteries in the world.
According to the 2020 annual report and 202 1 1 quarterly report issued by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., the company achieved an operating income of 50310.90 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%; Realized a net profit of 5.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.43%; The net profit after deduction was 4.265 billion yuan, up 8.93% year-on-year.
"When this performance was first seen, it really made people feel that it was only quite satisfactory, but it really made market investors take a fancy to the development speed of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd." Sun Yao (pseudonym), an industry analyst in the secondary market, said, "Another thing to consider is that the first half of last year was catching up with the outbreak of the epidemic, and it is already a good performance to have such a performance."
In the first quarter of 20021,the total operating income of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was191670,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of112.24%; The net profit returned to the mother was 65.438+0.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 654.38+0.63.38%; After non-deduction, the net profit was 65.438+67.2 billion yuan, up 290.5% year-on-year.
Judging from the performance in the first quarter of this year, compared with last year, the income and profitability of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. have been significantly enhanced.
In terms of various businesses, in 2020, the power battery business revenue of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was 39.426 billion yuan, accounting for 78.35% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 2. 18% and a gross profit margin of 26.56%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. Compared with the data of 20 19, the business income of power battery system of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. accounts for 84.27% of the total income.
According to Sun Yao's analysis, the decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of upstream raw materials and some auxiliary materials, in which the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate and hexafluoro have doubled, and the pressure on battery profitability has become natural.
"This is not a bad thing for Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.. The price of raw materials has risen, and the battery business will indeed be under some pressure in the short term. However, if the timeline is lengthened, the company's own bargaining power will be stronger, which is conducive to the company's own improvement. Revenue. " Sun Yao further explained.
In terms of lithium battery materials business, the operating income of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in 2020 was 3.429 billion yuan, accounting for 6.89% of the total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 20.45%. Compared with 20 19, the revenue share and gross profit margin of lithium battery materials business of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. have obviously decreased.
In fact, in terms of growth, the best performance of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is energy storage business.
In 2020, the energy storage business income of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was 654.38+94.3 billion yuan, up 265.438+08.56% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was 36.03%, down 65.438+0.84 percentage points year-on-year. From the data point of view, the energy storage business of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. can significantly improve the overall gross profit margin.
"The so-called energy storage refers to storing energy through media or equipment and releasing it when needed. The concept of' carbon neutrality' is so hot this year, and the energy storage business is likely to become another growth point of contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. in the future. " Sun Yao explained this.
Can such a performance support a market value of one trillion?
Not now, maybe later.
"Of course not."
Sun Yao said: "Looking at the data of the current annual report of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., I personally think it is still a bit difficult to prop up the market value of one trillion yuan, but for today's capitalists, more attention is paid to the future."
He cited an example, such as the soaring share price of new energy vehicles. By the beginning of this year, the delivery volume of all electric vehicle companies was basically only a fraction of that of fuel vehicles, but the market value of many head companies in this field has exceeded that of traditional fuel vehicle companies.
Qi Xin (pseudonym), an investor in the primary market, told the author that the valuations of many excellent companies in the primary market are soaring, not only in the secondary market. "This growth rate is unimaginable in the past."
In Qi Xin's view, it is difficult to position the company's valuation with traditional indicators. "For example, P/E ratio and P/B ratio, these traditional methods cannot truly reflect the valuation of these new era companies."
Qi Xin said: "To judge whether a company's market value is reasonable, we need to consider the company's cash flow, growth and risk, and many of these things have to start from the future. In other words, investors are now more concerned about the prospects. "
According to SNE research statistics, in 2020, the usage of the top ten power battery enterprises in the world accounted for 92.5%, the market concentration increased, and the Matthew effect was obvious, among which the top three were Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., LG Chem and Panasonic, and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. had a global market share of over 30%. Judging from this data, head manufacturers supply most of the products in the whole market and have a strong dominant position in the market price.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in the first quarter of this year, Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. installed global power batteries 15. 1 gmh, of which domestic installed batteries 12.22GWh accounted for 52.6% of the domestic market.
At the policy level, the state promotes that the proportion of new energy vehicles in new car sales in China will reach 20% in 2025. At present, China's new energy vehicles only account for 5.4% of automobile sales, and there is still room for improvement close to 15%. On July 18 this year, the European Commission issued the proposal "Fit for 55", calling for a 55% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions compared with the level of 202 1 by 2030, a total ban on the sale of internal combustion engines by June 1 by 2035, and carbon neutrality by 2050.
According to GGII's data and the forecast of Forward-looking Research Institute, the shipments of power lithium batteries in China will increase year by year in 2020. In 2020, China's power battery shipments will be 80GWh, up 65,438+03% year-on-year. In 2020, the market size of power battery will be about 65 billion yuan, and by 2026, the market size of power lithium battery in China is expected to exceed 1000 billion yuan.
However, Qi Xin also warned that investors should be cautious even if the prospects are good and expectations are high. "Unpopular people will never be absent."
On the evening of July 22nd, the Ninth Five-Year High-Tech Company, which belongs to the lithium battery track, disclosed its performance forecast for the first half of 2002/KLOC-0, and its net profit for the first half of the year dropped by about 50%. In contrast, since July 2, the stock price has risen by more than 140% in 15 trading days, during which four 20% daily limit boards have been harvested.