Even as early as 12 years ago, a hydrogen fuel cell passenger car appeared in China, but it has never been put on the market, and there is not even a chance of "trial and error". Is there no prospect for hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars in China market? Not necessarily.
The field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which has been silent for a long time, is welcoming a small industrial climax. In the past two months, many car companies, such as Great Wall, Guangzhou Automobile and BMW, have successively released hydrogen fuel cell passenger car plans. Among them, GAC will conduct demonstration operation in 2020. Over the years, hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars have developed slowly on the road of commercialization and started to enter the substantive operation stage.
■? "Small climax" of fuel cell passenger car industry
China hydrogen fuel cell car "earned" a little face this time.
Previously, the first-Mover advantage of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars seemed to be in foreign companies. On 20 14 12, Toyota Motor introduced Toyota Mirai, the first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. At that time, Tanaka Kazuhiro, head of Mirai fuel cell vehicle development of Toyota Motor Corporation, said that the reason why Toyota introduced Mirai to the market at the end of 20 14 was related to the understanding reached by Japan, Europe and the United States on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. At the same time, compared with 2008, the development cost of hydrogen-fueled vehicles has been reduced by 95%.
Around 20 15, Japanese and Korean car companies and European and American car companies continuously announced hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars. Strictly speaking, as early as 20 13, 12, Hyundai started the mass production of modern ix35? FCV model; 20 16 Honda launches CLARITY model; In 20 17, Daimler also introduced the new concept car of hydrogen fuel, Shenchi GLC-CELL.
"Toyota Mirai"
On the other hand, China car companies have not made substantial progress like Toyota, Hyundai and Honda. At the 20 14 Shanghai Auto Show, SAIC released the fourth generation Roewe 950 plug-in fuel cell vehicle with a maximum cruising range of 400km. In 20 16, Chery exhibited an Arrizo 3 fuel cell extended-range electric vehicle at the National Twelfth Five-Year Scientific and Technological Innovation Exhibition, which can achieve a battery life of 350km in the extended-range mode. However, this is only a technical demonstration of SAIC and Chery.
With the coming of 2020, the different actions of China car companies in the field of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars make people feel a wave of "small climax" in the industry.
In less than a month, three vehicle companies have successively released plans for hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, and put forward plans for mass production vehicles. On July 20th, Great Wall Motor released the "Lemon" platform. The "Lemon" platform model will match the second generation hydrogen fuel cell power system, and the driving range can reach 1 100km. According to the plan, Great Wall Motor's first hydrogen fuel vehicle platform will be launched this year, a small-scale hydrogen energy fleet will be displayed in 2022, and a mature fuel cell passenger car model will be launched in 2023.
"Guangzhou Automobile New Energy Aion? LX？ Fuel? Cell made its debut at Guangzhou Automotive Technology Day. "
Guangzhou automobile is also close behind. On July 28th, Aion, Guangzhou Automobile's first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle? LX？ Fuel? Cell made its debut at Guangzhou Automotive Technology Day. This model is more than just a demonstration car. GAC plans to put it into demonstration operation this year.
Among the new forces to build cars, there are also fans of fuel cell technology. On August 10, Aichi Automobile held the groundbreaking ceremony of methanol reforming hydrogen fuel cell technology in Gaoping, Shanxi Province, and its methanol hydrogen fuel cell power system production base officially started. With an investment of 2 billion yuan, the plant can achieve an annual output of 80,000 units/set of fuel cell power system for hydrogen production from methanol.
In addition to the above-mentioned enterprises, according to preliminary statistics, companies such as Haima, Du Yun, Hongqi, SAIC Datong and Chang 'an have also begun to deploy in the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. It can be said that from the layout of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, there are currently the largest number of domestic car companies. Will this be the beginning of the rise of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars in China?
■? Why engage in fuel cell passenger cars?
First of all, answer this question: why must we engage in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
Let's take a look at the energy problems facing our country. There are several sets of data: First, at present, 70% and more than 40% of China's oil and gas are imported; Second, in 20 19, China's carbon emissions accounted for 29% of the world; Third, the proportion of renewable energy in China is about 14.86%, and the scale of "three wastes" (wind, light and water) is about 5 15 billion kwh; 4. The efficiency of coal-fired power generation in China is between 38% and 45%, and the energy consumption of GDP in 20 18 is about 0.506 tons of standard coal/10,000 yuan, which is 5 times of the world average1.
China has promised the world that its carbon emissions will peak in 2030. How to honor this promise? Developing hydrogen energy industry is an effective way to realize decarbonization. Hydrogen reacts with oxygen, and the final product is water, carbon-free, colorless and tasteless.
From a big strategic point of view, "hydrogen decarbonization" is an inevitable trend in the future. Of course, it is essential to implement the hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry with scale advantages in specific industries. If there is no hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry, China will have to make a discount if it wants to fulfill its promise in 2030.
Look at the advantages of fuel cell vehicles. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (fuel? Cells? Automobile (FCV), in short, is a new type of electric vehicle driven by electric energy generated by fuel cells. Compared with traditional cars, FCV has zero pollution to the environment, hydrogenation only takes a few minutes, and the cruising range is enough to meet the needs of users. From the product itself, FCV has outstanding advantages.
In fact, China car companies have never ignored the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Since 2008, China car companies have been investing in hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars. SAIC, Chery, FAW, BAIC, Great Wall, Aichi and other automobile companies all exhibited fuel cell passenger car products. According to preliminary statistics, since 2008, more than 20 kinds of fuel cell passenger cars have appeared in the domestic market.
It is also an indisputable fact that China's hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry is concentrated in the commercial vehicle field. Professor Zhang Tong, director of the Institute of Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology of Tongji University, explained that from a technical point of view, it is relatively difficult to develop commercial vehicles when the fuel cell vehicle industry chain technology is not mature. Passenger cars have higher requirements on the technical maturity of related parts and it is more difficult to push forward.
Another reason lies in the national policy orientation. The demonstration operation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles focuses on public transportation and logistics. From the perspective of subsidies, it is easier for the state to control and operate. Coupled with the intervention of local government forces, regional and public buses have become the key support targets.
Therefore, some people think that passenger cars in China are more suitable for pure electric technology, and there is no need to develop hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars.
This view is biased. Judging from the proportion of commercial vehicles and passenger cars, as of June 2020, the number of cars in China has reached 270 million, of which only 29.44 million are trucks. Even with public transport, the proportion of commercial vehicles is not high.
If the hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry only extends to commercial vehicles, the overall market capacity will be very limited, which is far from enough to contribute to energy conservation and emission reduction in China. Secondly, the infrastructure utilization rate of future hydrogen refueling stations is low. Moreover, whether hydrogen fuel cell technology can stand the test must also go deep into the private consumption field.
From the international experience, the market performance of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars is also obvious. Since 20 15, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars in Korea has been rising continuously, and it has increased greatly during 20 18-20 19, with the year-on-year growth of 509.8% in 20 18. In 20 19, the sales volume exceeded 4,000 vehicles. In Japan, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars declined at 20 17 and 20 18, and then rebounded at 20 19, and it is expected to be in a steady upward trend in 2020.
Let's take the sales data of modern Nexo hydrogen fuel cell models as an example. In 20 18, Hyundai sold 966 NEXO20 19, reaching 4987 vehicles; In the first half of 2020, the sales volume was 3,292 vehicles. Hyundai Motor expects that the sales volume of this car will exceed 654.38+0 million in August.
"Hyundai Nexo will be the second hydrogen fuel cell passenger car with a sales volume of over 10,000 in the world"
From this point of view, although it can't be called a success for the time being, hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars have made small achievements, and at least gained a valuable opportunity to stand the test of the market.
■? Where is the bottleneck of hydrogen fuel cell passenger car?
Of course, it is not easy to develop hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars.
Daimler recently announced the termination of the research and development plan for hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars. This means that this project, which started from 20 13 and cooperated with Ford and Nissan, has stopped. The core reason why Daimler abandoned the fuel cell project is that the cost of manufacturing hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars is too high.
The first problem of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars is the cost. As a consumer-oriented product, the price of passenger cars is an important reason to decide their purchase. Some organizations have made preliminary statistics on the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The price of fuel cell vehicles is 0.5 to 2 times that of 65438+ lithium ion electric vehicles and 3 to 4 times that of fuel vehicles. If the cost of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars remains high, it is difficult to have a market in the future.
Infrastructure is the second obstacle for hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars. If the layout of hydrogen refueling stations is insufficient in the future, will there be charging difficulties similar to pure electric vehicles? Up to now, China has operated 59 hydrogen refueling stations, 53 hydrogen refueling stations are under construction, and 20 hydrogen refueling stations are planned to be built. The promotion is very slow.
Of course, technical problems can not be ignored. Ma Tiancai, an associate professor at Tongji University Automotive College, said that from the perspective of industrial chain, the development of hydrogen fuel cells in China is not much different from that of foreign vehicles and systems, but the key materials at the bottom are relatively weak.
For example, the stack accounts for more than 25% of the total cost of the hydrogen fuel cell system, and its core materials almost all depend on foreign manufacturers; In the field of catalysts, domestic consumption is 3-5 times that of foreign countries, and mainly comes from foreign enterprises, and only a few domestic enterprises can produce in small batches; In addition, proton exchange membranes and membrane electrodes are mainly supplied by foreign enterprises.
However, we believe that the hydrogen fuel cell passenger car industry has ushered in spring. Qi Lin, Chairman and CEO of Shanghai Remodeling Energy Technology Co., Ltd., roughly divides the development of global fuel cell vehicles into three stages:
The first stage is the development stage of fuel cell passenger cars, including the development of fuel cell technology led by Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz and other passenger car companies, which laid a good foundation for the development of fuel cell technology and achieved many technical breakthroughs.
The second stage is the development stage of fuel cell commercial vehicles. In the past three or four years, fuel cell commercial vehicles have maintained rapid growth in the global scope, especially in the China market. Whether it is a vehicle enterprise or a component enterprise, everyone has gradually turned their goals and future to the direction of commercial vehicles with long battery life and high load.
The third stage, that is, from 2020, is the beginning of a new journey for fuel cell vehicles. The development trend of hydrogen energy application in the world is gradually clear, and the commercialization scene is gradually realized, and it is in the process of continuous development.
Why is the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles moving towards a new stage? Qi Lin explained it from four dimensions. The first dimension is that shell, BP, Sinopec, PetroChina and other energy-end enterprises enter the hydrogen energy industry and start infrastructure construction. The second dimension is that from the product side, many mainstream automobile companies and parts companies have also started product planning; The third dimension is that from the application scenario, more and more hydrogen energy commercialization companies have also entered the market; The fourth dimension comes from government policies and support plans.
To be sure, the development situation of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars in China is improving. In the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2020, demonstration cities will be rewarded with fuel cell vehicles. It is mentioned in Guangzhou Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Plan (20 19-2030) that Guangzhou fuel cell passenger cars will be mainly used in public travel fields such as taxis and taxis, and it is planned to reach about 100 vehicles in 2022.
In the near future, it will be a reasonable choice to demonstrate the operation of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars or to promote them in the form of leasing. In the long run, with the gradual expansion of demonstration operation scale and further reduction of costs, it is only a matter of time before hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars go to ordinary consumers.
However, all this will not come so soon. According to Zhang Tong's forecast, it will take about five years for hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars to reach a certain scale. In other words, it takes at least five years for consumers to make small purchases. (Text/car home? Li Zhengguang)