Editor | Chen Fang
Recently, the express delivery industry is very lively, and it is frequently listed on the hot search list. First, Yiwu, the world's number one courier, was exposed to another price war, which triggered a heated discussion. Followed by SF, which is known as Maotai in the express delivery industry, suffered losses for the first time. It is estimated that the loss in the first quarter will be 900 million yuan to1/kloc-0 million yuan, and the stock price will fall the next day. After that, Yiwu Postal Administration punished Jitu, who took the lead in the price war, and Pinduoduo was anxious to make a statement and distance himself.
The core of one heavy news after another is related to the price war. In fact, this is a simple and rude way of market competition, without any technical content. As long as you have money, it depends on whose backer you are competing for is hard enough to burn to the end. In the past few years, with the help of capital, price wars have been staged in countless industries, such as Hundred Regiments War and Cycling War. In the end, most of them are chicken feathers, and there are very few survivors.
The same is true of the express delivery industry. There are countless small and medium-sized enterprises that have closed down in recent years, and now even the giant SF can't stand it. The consequence of price war is not only the loss of enterprises, but also the unsustainable operation. In fact, it is all-round. Enterprises don't make money, services naturally can't keep up, consumers complain everywhere, and the loss of couriers is serious, eventually dragging the industry into the quagmire.
On April 12, Pinduoduo issued a statement to punish Extreme Rabbit on the hot search list of Weibo, because it recently issued a statement to the merchants, pointing out that the "Pinduoduo orders can be exempted from false delivery punishment, and the probability of being punished is low" and "there is investment from Pinduoduo, and the two sides have a special cooperative relationship" are false news.
In this brief statement, Pinduoduo admitted that he had cooperated with Polar Rabbit during the Spring Festival, but as of February 22nd, the current delivery rules have nothing to do with what express delivery is used. Finally, Pinduo put this dissatisfaction into practice and punished Jitu for raising the business cooperation deposit.
One reason why Extreme Rabbit is regarded as a multi-product department is that Li Jie, the founder of Extreme Rabbit, as a former senior executive of OPPO, and Huang Zheng, the founder of Multi-product, are both disciples of Duan Yongping. Many officials of Extreme Rabbit.com revealed that most of the singles of Extreme Rabbit are from Multi-product. Some can account for more than 90%.
It can be said that Pinduoduo contributed to the rise of the polar rabbit. Without the support of many products and express delivery, it is difficult to become a dark horse in the express delivery industry within one year, and the reason why many products have to draw a clear line with the extremely rabbit is not unrelated to the hot search a few days ago.
On April 9, Yiwu Postal Administration issued a warning letter to Polar Rabbit, claiming that there were security risks in its distribution center and several express mail processing places. Yiwu Postal Administration notified Polar Rabbit four times and warned against dumping at a price far below the cost. However, the polar rabbit failed to rectify as required, so he sent a letter asking it to rectify.
This warning letter shows that the local regulatory authorities are extremely dissatisfied with the extreme rabbit who fought the price war, saying that if it is not rectified on time, it will order the distribution center of the extreme rabbit company to suspend business for rectification according to the relevant requirements of Article 41 of the Express Regulations.
At 5 o'clock in the afternoon, when Ai Caijing visited Yiwu Maple Transfer Center, he found that most of the machines were not working, only a few machines were unloading and sorting, and many workers smoked and chatted in the shade. The supervisor revealed that some machines needed to be relocated, but remained silent about the rectification.
The background of extreme rabbit's penalty is that this dark horse, which has just completed financing of $654.38+08 billion not long ago and has a post-investment valuation of $7.8 billion, has set off a new round of price war in the express delivery industry. According to the report of Tencent Prism, in March this year, with the strong subsidy of Polar Rabbit, the receiving price of Yiwu Express was once again hit below 1 yuan, and the daily delivery of more than 1 10,000 pieces can be delivered at 1 yuan, with the lowest quality of 80 cents.
When Ai Caijing visited Yiwu, he found that the price war began in early March. At present, the price of each courier has been restored to more than 1 yuan. The supervisor of a polar rabbit outlet revealed that the price of his home within 3 kg is 1.5- 1.6 yuan, and the price of Tongda system fluctuates here. However, according to local sources, the cost of small express delivery in Yiwu is about 1.5 yuan, which means that the collection fee is still lower than the cost price, and the price war actually continues.
Figure/Yiwu Maple Transfer Center
For the warning letter issued by the local regulatory authorities, informed sources revealed that the effect was minimal. Although several express delivery companies, including Polar Rabbit, apparently raised their prices, they subsidized the merchants for a few cents behind them, which was equivalent to the same price.
Yiwu is at the cusp of express price war. As the world's largest small commodity market distribution center, the express business volume here jumped to the top in the world from June 5438+ 10 last year, and Yiwu has also become a battleground for major express delivery companies, so the price war has intensified in recent years.
2065438+In March 2009, Zhongtong took the lead in launching a price war, reducing the unit price of Yiwu Express from 4.2 yuan to 1.2 yuan. In June, other companies followed suit, and Shentong once dropped to 90 cents. It was not until July that families agreed to clear the battlefield at the negotiating table. Unexpectedly, in 2020, the polar rabbit will enter China at a low price, and the price war will start again. In March, Yiwu Yellow Cattle broke the news of 80 cents nationwide, and it was not until the eve of the double 1 1 that each family decided to hold a group to raise prices.
This time is equivalent to the third price war in Yiwu. The rabbit dares to do it because it is not short of money. On the other hand, the polar rabbit is at the key node of listing, and it needs to be bigger, which is more conducive to its listing.
On the surface, the price war is beneficial to consumers, and it can be delivered at a lower cost, but it does great harm. The direct result is that the service quality of terminal delivery has declined, and online complaints about slow delivery, damage, loss and bad attitude of couriers abound.
The core reason is that the price war moved the courier's cake. Some media have drawn a pie chart according to various news. If the consumer pays the courier fee of 10 yuan, the collection outlets will charge 3 yuan, the local delivery fee of 0.6 yuan and the transportation fee of 0.3 yuan to the distribution center. In addition, the headquarters of the courier company will also charge 1 yuan for face-to-face bills, 2 yuan's transit fee and 1.5 yuan's delivery fee, and the delivery fee that finally falls on the courier's head is only 1.6 yuan.
Express companies have to fight price wars. Because the reduction of transfer fee and distribution fee depends on the improvement of equipment and technology efficiency, they need long-term investment and the cost is relatively fixed. Naturally, the courier's delivery fee will be squeezed first. In other words, the outlets and couriers at the end of the express chain have become scapegoats for the price war.
Figure/vision china
Yuan Hua is the recipient of Yiwu Shentong Branch. I came to Yiwu five years ago, and my monthly salary rose from the initial 5,000 yuan to 1000 yuan. Now he is getting more and more tired. "Before customers find fault, I will explain. If I don't send it now, I will protect my old customers, and new customers don't want to care. " He plans to return to his hometown in Anhui at the end of April to do e-commerce and bid farewell to Yiwu Express. "At first glance, there is no room for growth in this industry."
This is not a special case. In March, China Post Express, in charge of the State Post Bureau, released an investigation report, revealing that over 50% of couriers earned less than 5,000 yuan a month, and only 1.3% earned more than 1.3%. However, their workload is not low. More than half of couriers send more than 100 pieces a day, and the loss of couriers is also quite serious. 60% of couriers have less than three years of experience.
In order to survive in the cracks and improve the delivery efficiency, it has become a "lazy" rule for many couriers to put the courier into the courier cabinet or post station without the customer's consent. This has caused many consumers' dissatisfaction and spit everywhere. Some people point the finger at the collection point such as rookie station without knowing it, but they don't know that the terminal service of express delivery can't come to the door casually, which is rooted in the price war.
In fact, the rookie station is also very wronged. On the surface, the courier's private station has brought some income to the webmaster, but it is also easy to have disputes and complaints with customers.
It is unfair to blame the rookie station for the decline of terminal service quality caused by price war.
To take a step back, even if the courier is placed in the rookie station, only the courier pays a sum of money, and the consumer still takes the courier free of charge, unlike putting it in the hive express cabinet, which requires another sum of money.
There seems to be no winner in this price war that disrupts the market order.
Recently, the announcement of SF's huge pre-loss in the first quarter pushed this white horse stock to the forefront. Among the five official explanations, it is mentioned that the loss is related to e-commerce accessories. "The economic business has grown rapidly, and the gross profit of the company's e-commerce is under pressure." In the case that the growth rate of aging parts slows down and new business is not enough to lead, SF has to fall into the quagmire of price war.
Figure/vision china
Among them, Wang Feng, owned by SF, is regarded as reaching the benchmark and sinking into the tentacles of the low-end e-commerce market. Yiwu courier told Ai Caijing that the price of local small parts is in 2.3 yuan, which is higher than that of Tongda's 2 yuan. Local businesses with larger profits will choose Wang Feng. After all, the probability of loss and wear is low, but this price is also difficult for Wang Feng.
Not to mention the head admission system. Under the pressure of price war, by the third quarter of 2020, the single-ticket revenue of Dayun, Shentong, Tong Yuan and Zhongtong will be only 1.25-2. 15 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% to 33.8%.
Second-line express delivery is a disaster. According to Ai Caijing's statistics, from 20 18 to now, there are 12 second-line express companies in trouble, among which, 6 such as Express Easy, Guo Tong Express and Quanfeng Express have completely closed down, and 1 company has been forced to sell themselves, and some have even shrunk their lives.
When will the price war end? I'm afraid it's a dream in the short term. In a report, CITIC Securities predicted that the fierce price war will continue throughout 20021year.
This seems to be traceable. First of all, the courier boss Zhongtong has no intention of stopping fighting. It wants to increase its share to 25% in 2022, and its market share will be 20.4% in 2020, which means that it needs to grow by 2.3% every year in the next two years. It's not easy. You know, in the past six years, the average annual share of Zhongtong has only increased by 1.2%.
In order to grab the quantity, we must leave the price war, which is the simplest, rude and short-term effective way. Moreover, Zhongtong's second IPO in Hong Kong stocks also raised nearly 10 billion yuan, providing sufficient ammunition for the price war.
Not only that, but three new players with the background of express delivery market should not be underestimated. One is Jingxi Express (formerly China Post Express), a subsidiary of JD.COM, which gives discounts at the start-up stage. Last June, 5438+1October 1.5 yuan issued the national low-price policy; At the end of 2020, Zhong You Express was renamed Jingxi Express and entered Jingxi Business Group. However, under the price war, Ann has beaten the eggs, and many postal franchisees revealed that at present, the number of postal orders has dropped significantly compared with the previous year. "Legend has it that JD.COM wants shopkeepers to turn to community group buying, but there are no detailed rules, which is very confusing."
Wang Feng, owned by SF Express, has developed rapidly, and its positioning and pricing are slightly higher than Tongda's, so it can eat cakes of high-end e-commerce equipment.
The polar rabbit, which is closely related to many products, burns money "red eye". It is understood that the order volume of Polar Rabbit Express, which was established for one year, has reached 20 million in June this year at 5438+ 10. It took more than ten years to reach this scale, and the core is not unrelated to the price war. After the Double Eleven, the average daily subsidy for the national peak of polar rabbits was as high as 1 100 million yuan. Extremely Rabbit, which has just obtained financing, has surpassed Tong Yuan, Shentong and Dayun in market value, second only to Zhongtong, which is listed on the Hong Kong stock market. It is rumored that it will also consider listing in the United States for financing, which will complement its low-cost strategy.
"Before the overall pattern of the industry is determined, any price truce has been proved to be invalid," CITIC Securities said. In fact, it is also the case. Two large-scale price wars, 20 19 and 2020, were suspended through negotiations and then resumed.
However, experts predict that by 2022, the price war of express delivery will gradually ease.
According to the investigation of CITIC Securities, they found that couriers in many first-tier cities could not accept the delivery fee below 1 yuan. However, under the price war, the delivery fee of some key grain-producing areas (such as Yiwu) is only 0.8 yuan, and the delivery outlets need to pay the delivery fee to 1 yuan to retain the courier.
If the intensity of the price war in 20021year is the same as that in 2020, and the average delivery cost drops to 0.8 yuan, then the courier can improve the delivery efficiency by putting express cabinets or post stations, and he needs to pay the entrance and exit fees of 0.3 yuan, which is actually tolerable in 0.5 yuan at this time. If the delivery fee falls to 0.6 yuan in 2022, the courier can only get 0.3 yuan, with a drop of nearly 50%. In this extreme case, a large number of couriers will resign, so it is expected that the price war will ease in 2022.
Only now, whether it is a courier company, an online shop or a courier, it has to go through a pain and reshuffle. Under the fierce price war, most people are cannon fodder after all.
This article was originally produced by Caijing Tianxia Weekly. Please do not reprint in any channel or platform without permission. Offenders will be prosecuted.