For today's BAIC Group, Beijing Hyundai can give up, but Beijing Benz can't lose it. If you lose it, it will make a big deal.
It just rained all night. After Xu Heyi, who has always been tough on the outside world, finally retired, it was reported that Daimler wanted to restart the holding negotiations.
On August 26th, it was reported that "Daimler Group wants to restart negotiations with BAIC to increase its shareholding in Beijing Benz, and plans to increase its shareholding in Beijing Benz from 49% to 65%".
In the past, German joint venture brands generally pursued the promotion of their share ratio in China, from Volkswagen to BMW Group and Daimler Group. This is not the first time. Therefore, we are more concerned about how BAIC will defend this time.
Without Xu Heyi, it is curious whether the heavy responsibility of this equity defense battle falls on Jiang Deyi, chairman of the group, or on Chen Hongliang, president of BAIC, the controlling party of Beijing Benz.
Is Daimler's request reasonable?
First of all, the current share ratio structure of Beijing Automobile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Beijing Benz) is: BAIC Group holds 5 1% shares of Beijing Benz, and Daimler Group and its subsidiaries hold the remaining 49%.
In view of the fact that BMW Group has adjusted its share ratio in 20 18, which has no obvious impact on BMW's business in China, Daimler Group has also accelerated its action on the issue of share ratio.
In fact, no matter how tough Xu Heyi is, BAIC doesn't have much bargaining capital and cards. According to the goal disclosed by both parties last year, BAIC expects to become Daimler's third largest shareholder, accounting for 5% of the shares, with a capital of 20 billion plus the transfer of shares in Beijing Benz.
It is difficult to judge the practical significance of this move, but on the surface, at least BAIC is much better than Brilliance.
If this news is true, Daimler Group's decision to take action soon after Xu Heyi's retirement is actually not a "tragedy". After all, the negotiations in previous years were originally planned.
Even as early as 20 15, Xu Heyi revealed to the public that "BAIC is negotiating with Daimler AG to buy shares. If the shareholding is successful, BAIC Group will become one of Daimler's major shareholders. "
This means that in the planning of BAIC, taking a stake in Daimler is the first move, which not only prevents Daimler from coveting the China market, but also obtains a lot of PSA technologies with reference to Dongfeng Motor's 8% stake in PSA in that year. BAIC does not rule out the possibility of obtaining Daimler's industry-leading technology.
Then there is Shiyi's time shift. The cooperation between BAIC and Daimler is not as harmonious as Xu Heyi imagined, but seemingly unrelated Geely Automobile took the lead in purchasing 9.69% of Daimler's shares and became the largest single shareholder of Daimler.
BAIC wanted to be a major shareholder of Daimler Group, but in the end Daimler chose Geely Automobile with deeper background.
Therefore, BAIC, once the first of the four small companies, cannot be the largest shareholder now, and can only hope to become the "third" (the third largest shareholder) of Daimler.
So far, neither BAIC nor Daimler has responded to the news of the price increase. Traditionally, this may not be groundless.
After all, even Ah Q said, "Can't the monk move me?"
What would Daimler do?
Daimler Group may not just be "caught off guard". According to the second quarter financial report of Daimler Group in 2020, its revenue in the second quarter was 30.2 billion euros, down 29% year-on-year. The loss before interest and tax was 708 million euros, and the net loss was 654.38+90.6 million euros.
In this context, it seems reasonable for Daimler Group to choose BAIC again.
So, will Daimler Group hit a person when he is down? The answer seems to be yes.
It is certainly not the first time for consumers who are familiar with these two partners that Daimler wants to increase its holdings of Beijing Benz again.
Since 20 17 Geely Automobile began to sell the shares of Daimler Group, the relationship between Daimler Group and BAIC Group has become subtle.
A simple data illustrates the problem: BAIC Group's 20 19 annual report shows that BAIC's revenue is 201746.3 billion yuan, of which Beijing Benz contributed1551200,000 yuan, accounting for more than 88.8%.
The annual sales volume of Beijing Benz is only 567,000 vehicles, but the gross profit reaches 42.22 billion yuan. On average, if Mercedes sells a domestic car, the gross profit will exceed 70,000 yuan.
Assuming that Daimler realizes the increase in the shareholding ratio of Beijing Benz, in 20 19, Daimler Group will gain 24.82 billion euros in revenue, which is about 3.038 billion euros at the current exchange rate and 6.755 billion yuan in gross profit, which is about 826.8 million euros at the current exchange rate.
According to the European and American customary precedent rules, Audi AG, which did not successfully increase its holdings in the end, made the "spare tire" SAIC Audi project; The BMW Group and Great Wall Motor, which have increased their holdings, jointly established Beam Automobile. At present, the prospects of SAIC Audi and Beam Auto are still confusing, but the impact on FAW Audi may be more obvious.
According to the available information, the first product of SAIC Audi will be the domestic Audi A7L. Whether it competes with A6L or not, it will be the loss of FAW Audi's product camp, and the beam car is only aimed at the MINI brand and will not involve BMW's blue and white logo products.
However, Daimler's business in China has been laid out, with two traditional fuel vehicle joint ventures: Beijing Benz and Fujian Benz; Two new energy joint ventures: Tengshi Automobile and Geely SMART.
It is worth noting that although Fujian Benz Automobile Co., Ltd. is Daimler's major shareholder (holding 50%), its legal representative and chairman are still Chen Hongliang, managing director of BAIC.
Audi AG's scheme in China has little effect and little reference value; The gambling tengshi car project is almost an exam-oriented project, which is even more unreliable. The Geely SMART project has not been officially launched, and its future is uncertain.
Therefore, although there is no one in BAIC at present, Daimler Group is also curious about what it can do to talk about increasing its holdings with BAIC.
There are many successful cases of capital increase.
Objectively speaking, the Mercedes-Benz brand under Daimler Group has always been one of the best luxury brands, but it is only three years since the Mercedes-Benz brand caught up with BMW and Audi in China.
Therefore, the foundation of Daimler's increment in China is not stable, and the leading edge of Mercedes-Benz brand in the market is not obvious. The pattern of BBA is relatively stable, but the competition between them is more intense, and it is not too much to describe it as intense.
After BMW's successful capital increase, it is temporarily in a stable state. In fact, Brilliance Auto has always listened to the BMW Group, and it is not difficult for BMW to win the capital increase negotiations, so it can be assured that it will be consistent with the outside world.
Audi's current capital increase is not smooth, and all parties are secretly competing, which is a hidden danger in the future growth trend.
Generally speaking, from Audi's self-chaos, to BMW's coming from behind, and then to Mercedes-Benz's prosperity after the civil strife, at present, the pattern of BBA is still different, and no one has obvious advantages. According to the stability of Audi after the civil strife and the internal reorganization of BMW, Daimler should know that now is not the time to fight.
This may be the main reason why Daimler Group is relatively cautious in increasing its shareholding in Beijing Benz, and it is also a blessing for BAIC.
However, for Daimler and BAIC, Beijing Benz is now a cash cow. Whoever catches it will have a better performance.
FAW Group, which had a "eldest son" background before, still failed to survive under the repeated demands of Volkswagen Group to increase its holdings. Because SAIC didn't agree to increase its holdings, the German luxury brand (Porsche) that it always wanted didn't land in the end, and only got a "SAIC Audi" with limited growth expectations.
Some analysts said that as a joint venture company, the initiative to import any vehicle is in the hands of foreign parties, and Daimler Group's dependence on the China market is far lower than that of Volkswagen. Therefore, on the whole, BAIC is still relatively passive.
You can refer to the time when Jianghuai Volkswagen was just established. The future of Jianghuai Volkswagen described by Volkswagen Group is only aimed at the new energy field. By the end of May this year, after Volkswagen hoped to increase its capital, it immediately signed a framework agreement in June, which mentioned that Volkswagen Group promised to "give priority to the production of plug-in hybrid cars and fuel vehicles such as Volkswagen B-class cars and C-class cars in Jianghuai Volkswagen under the premise of China law and permission."
Under the trend of overall share ratio liberalization and joint venture project liberalization, will Daimler also consider deepening cooperation with BYD in the future?
Jiang Deyi, the new chairman, should feel "Alexander".
Comments: In the past few decades, Beijing Benz has experienced several unsuccessful situations of vehicle introduction, marketing, channel and infighting. With brand influence, it has gradually reached the position of luxury car sales leader. Objectively speaking, the advantages of Mercedes-Benz brand are not obvious. Both BMW and Audi have surpassed its strength in the China market. Therefore, how to win the capital increase war needs careful consideration. For BAIC Group, perhaps, without a lot of blood transfusion from Beijing Benz, BAIC can find a way to stand on its own feet like Changan.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.