Market analysis of low-cost airlines

For domestic low-cost airlines, the first important aspect that cannot be avoided is the time of air rights, which is related to their life and death. China's approval of civil aviation traffic rights follows the grandfather's rule of first come, first served, lacking competition and withdrawal mechanism. 70% of air traffic is concentrated in 30% areas, that is, it is mainly concentrated in more than a dozen large and medium-sized cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

The airport capacity of these cities has become saturated, and it is difficult for new private and low-cost airlines to compete and win in the air rights of these markets. The navigation rights in other regions do not play a decisive role in the survival, operation and development of these new companies. For low-cost airlines, aircraft leasing is also a big problem. According to the current laws and regulations, the National Development and Reform Commission examines and approves the plans of domestic airlines to lease and purchase foreign aircraft once a year. This will not cause much inconvenience to the three major groups of state-owned airlines, because it is not a problem for them to add dozens of planes every year. However, in the face of annual approval, low-cost airlines are a bit in a dilemma. The talent pool is large, and I am afraid that the National Development and Reform Commission will not approve the aircraft in the coming year, which will consume personnel costs in vain; The talent pool is small, and if NDRC approves the plane, it will miss the opportunity of development.

The lack of autonomy in the introduction of aircraft and the difficulty in aircraft leasing have caused airlines to be unable to expand their fleet size according to their own plans, thus failing to form scale effect and reducing costs. Pilots are a scarce resource in China. Many domestic experts predict that the pilot gap in China will be as high as 8,000 to 10,000 every year in the next five years.

Of course, in terms of flying talents, domestic low-cost airlines also have a shortcut, that is, recruiting people directly from other airlines. However, this only shortcut was blocked by the Opinions on Standardizing the Management of Flight Personnel Flow to Ensure the Stability of Civil Aviation Flight Team issued in May 2005. The regulations clearly stipulate that when a pilot changes jobs, the "new owner" should compensate the "old owner" with reference to the standard of 700 ~ 265,438+10,000 yuan; Moreover, the pilots who change jobs will be banned from flying until they terminate their contracts with their original units. Therefore, doing everything possible to find and introduce pilots has become a "top priority" for domestic low-cost airlines. The bottleneck of the development of domestic low-cost airlines is not only the problem of route network, but also the small scale of operation is an important factor that puzzles the development of these companies.

Judging from the history of civil aviation development, it is difficult for an airline to form a flight network if the fleet number is less than four. Without the flight network, it is difficult to attract business guests. The reason why the Spring and Autumn Period is profitable is mainly the success of the "aviation+tourism" model. Travel agencies have a large number of outlets, which can solve the problems of self-selling and market network. After the flight attendance rate is fully guaranteed, the cash flow generated by airlines can completely maintain the company's own operations.