I. Product attributes and differences of similar products
A commercial acceptance bill (hereinafter referred to as "commercial bill") refers to a commercial bill accepted by a payer other than a bank or a finance company and agreed to unconditionally pay a certain amount to the holder on a specific date in the future. Commercial bills are based on corporate credit, mainly used as payment and settlement tools, and also have financing functions. It is precisely because of the dual attributes of commercial paper that it has become an important tool to ease the tense creditor-debtor relationship between enterprises and promote the development of supply chain finance. It can also help enterprises to achieve rapid financing in a short time and ease the pressure of tight capital flow.
Compared with commercial paper, short-term financing bonds with enterprises as the main issuer, that is, securities issued by enterprises in the inter-bank bond market (that is, purchased by institutional investors entering the inter-bank market) and traded, and agreed to repay the principal and interest within one year, are mainly responsible for financing enterprises, supplementing liquidity for enterprises and adjusting capital structure. It can be said that corporate bond issuance and commercial paper financing have become the most commonly used means for enterprises to supplement liquidity. The financing process of commercial tickets has the characteristics of simple procedures, high efficiency and low cost; Moreover, in the process of market transactions between enterprises and suppliers, the monetization attribute of commercial tickets has gradually become prominent, especially when enterprises are short of funds, they can issue commercial tickets to pay suppliers, which directly solves the problem that they cannot pay for goods due to lack of funds, and also saves the time and capital cost of financing. Let's compare the situation of corporate bond issuance and commercial tickets this year. (See figure 1. 1, 1.2)
It can be seen that the total amount of corporate bonds issued this year fluctuated greatly under the circumstances of the overall credit contraction since the beginning of the year. On April 27th this year, the People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions (hereinafter referred to as the "New Asset Management Regulations"). In addition, the centralized maturity of corporate bonds and corporate bonds from May to June led to a decline in investors' risk appetite, which led to a sharp decline in the total issuance of corporate bonds in May and June. Compared with April, the decline of nearly 400 billion yuan can be described as a precipice. Subsequently, the central bank launched an inclusive window to guide commercial banks to buy low-and medium-grade credit bonds. The targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, which came into effect on July 5, and the supplementary notice of the new asset management regulations on July 20 all played a short-term repair role in the credit bond market, and the total amount of corporate bond issuance gradually rebounded slightly from July. In this process, we can see that the number of commercial tickets issued has not decreased, but has steadily increased since April, surpassing short-term financing in May and June and reaching a high point in June. It is worth noting that the proportion of short-term financing in corporate bond issuance has remained at around 40%-60%, and the financing function for enterprises is similar to that of commercial tickets. However, in July, when short-term financing picked up, the amount of commercial tickets issued surged. It can be seen that in terms of financing channels, commercial paper and short-term financing have a certain complementary role. However, judging from the overall issuance of commercial tickets, it is still at a low level. Although it has the function of financing, it has not been fully exerted. The reason is to look at the development status of commercial tickets in China.
Second, the development status of electronic commercial paper
As of August 20 18, the number of electronic commercial tickets issued this year was 1.49 trillion, and the discounted amount was 514.6 billion; Although the People's Bank of China issued "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Commercial Acceptance Bills" (Yinfa [2006] No.385) in 2006, the discount business of commercial tickets has gradually emerged, but from the perspective of the discount volume, the discount volume of electronic commercial tickets has basically remained at around 35% over the years, indicating that most commercial tickets are still mainly issued between enterprises, while the discount volume of banks for financing purposes is relatively low. Compared with the billing volume of 9.8 trillion electronic bank tickets and the discount volume of about 56%, the development of e-commerce tickets lags behind that of e-bank tickets. Although commercial paper has financing function, its payment and settlement function still occupies a relatively dominant position in the application.
From the enterprise's point of view, for the purpose of payment, enterprises only need to get the approval of suppliers in the process of issuing e-commerce tickets; For enterprises with the purpose of financing, the issuance of e-commerce tickets must be approved by the bank, and the bank guarantees or the amount of guarantee. Look at the bank side, although some banks have developed commercial ticket stickers, letters of guarantee, confirmations and other business varieties. The review of commercial tickets based on corporate credit is still relatively strict, and most of them refer to loan review, and the review of commercial tickets for non-institutional credit customers is more strict and cautious. However, it is essentially a kind of credit behavior for banks to give enterprises a guaranteed amount or set up a white list system. Therefore, most of the enterprises that have obtained the guaranteed amount or entered the white list of bank preferences are large enterprises with high industry rankings or high market recognition. Although commercial paper, as an investment product, has a high rate of return, because banks are the most important investors in commercial paper, their risk preference direction greatly restricts the development of commercial paper financing business. The root of the bank's move is the concern about commercial credit, but the great development of commercial paper depends on the establishment of debtor's credit evaluation mechanism. Will the bill exchange after the integration of paper and electricity provide a new soil for the development of commercial ticket business?
Third, the future development space of commercial tickets in the era of bill exchange
The arrival of bill exchange era has become a new turning point in the development of bill business, and the release of new asset management regulations makes the future development of bill market not only full of opportunities and variables; The establishment of debtor's credit evaluation mechanism may greatly promote the future development of commercial paper and play an extremely important role in the future development of bill exchange.
(A) the inevitable trend of the establishment of credit rating system in the era of bill exchange
Before the integration of paper and electricity in the ticket exchange, bill asset management business has always been the most important form of bill business. Bill asset management business 20 13 rose, but the development was slow; Since 20 15, the proportion of bill transactions in rural credit cooperatives has been shrinking; At this time, the bill asset management business under the cooperation of bank and securities has become the mainstream development direction of the bill market. 20 15 became the first year of great development of bill asset management. State-owned and joint-stock banking institutions mainly engaged in this business directly increased the balance of asset management to10.5 trillion in that year and nearly10.4 trillion in the following year. However, since 20 17, due to low interest rates, risk events and "334" supervision and inspection, the bill asset management business has shrunk dramatically; Especially since the release of the "New Regulations on Asset Management" on April 27th this year, the scale of bill asset management of joint-stock banks has continued to drop to 500 billion at the end of August. (See Figure 3. 1) Therefore, whether bill assets can be classified as investment creditor's rights standardized assets in the asset management plan and continue to be the main business form of bill assets, or whether they can only be invested as non-standardized assets has become an important symbol of the development direction of bills in the era of bill exchange. Then, in the era of bill exchange, how likely is it to standardize bill assets?
The New Regulations on Asset Management stipulates: "Standardized creditor assets shall meet the following conditions at the same time: 1. Equal differentiation, tradable; 2. Full information disclosure; 3. Centralized registration and independent custody; 4. Fair pricing and perfect liquidity mechanism; 5. Trading in the inter-bank market, the stock exchange market and other trading markets agreed by the State Council. " Obviously, after the integration of paper and electricity in the ticket exchange went online, it has completely met the requirements of 3 and 5 points, and can gradually realize 1 point in technical treatment; However, "full disclosure of information" and "fair pricing" are very difficult. The root of their temporary failure lies in the lack of debtor's credit evaluation system. The establishment and improvement of credit evaluation system can be said to be the basic work of full information disclosure and fair pricing. This is also the resistance to the development of commercial tickets mentioned above. At the same time, let's take a look at the development of commercial paper market in the United States and Taiwan Province Province. Comparing the development of commercial paper market in the United States and Taiwan Province Province, 99% of commercial paper based on corporate credit is used for financing purposes, and the issuance of financing bonds is direct financing for investors, and both of them have a relatively perfect credit evaluation mechanism and standardized issuance process. Visible, from the point of circulation, it is precisely because commercial paper has completed the standardization process based on credit rating in the United States and Taiwan Province Province that it has promoted the prosperity of its trading and circulation. Therefore, after the integration of paper and electricity in the ticket exchange, in order to adapt to the development direction of the market, the credit rating mechanism of bill debtors should be gradually established, which is not only the key work of whether bills can be used as standardized creditor assets and credit repricing in the era of the ticket exchange, but also an important factor for the great development of commercial bills.
(2) Discussion on the establishment of commercial paper credit rating system in the era of bill exchange.
The establishment of commercial paper credit rating mechanism in the era of bill exchange is beneficial for investors to better identify and evaluate the debtor's repayment ability of principal and interest under the condition of relatively symmetrical information. The specific content of the credit rating mechanism of commercial paper can be understood as that the credit rating agencies judge the credit status of commercial paper debtors, such as their willingness and ability to repay debts, and fairly disclose the debtor's ability to repay debts and interests and keep promises. The debt subject and debt cycle based on commercial bills are similar to short-term financing, so the credit rating of short-term financing can be used for reference. However, commercial bills should also have their own characteristics in the credit rating system, specifically:
1. Rating element category applicable to commercial paper
The main international rating mechanisms include five categories: 5C, 5P and 3F. Among them, the 5C factor is widely used, which mainly refers to the comprehensive analysis of the debtor's morality, repayment ability, capital strength, collateral and collateral, so as to judge the debtor's willingness and ability to repay. In China, it pays more attention to the objective evaluation of the debtor's credit status through the analysis of safety, profitability, growth, liquidity and productivity. Due to the short debt period of commercial bills, the longest is 1 year. It is suggested that the commercial paper credit rating of the ticket exchange can adopt the method of combining international 5C with domestic five characteristics, and focus on monitoring liquidity indicators on the premise of fully considering the macro-environment and industry factors of the debt repayment cycle.
2. Setting of rating indicators
Mainly refers to the index setting of specific items in rating elements, which can fully reveal the credit status of enterprises through the measurement of each index; For example, inventory turnover rate, accounts receivable turnover rate and other indicators can reflect the level of enterprise management ability. In the setting of specific indicators, there are both quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators; Because commercial bills, especially commercial acceptance bills, involve a wide range of industries, it is suggested that the differences of industry risk characteristics and the substantial influence of quantitative and qualitative indicators on their solvency should be fully considered when setting indicators, and the corresponding weight ratio should be carried out with cash flow analysis as the core to maximize the repayment ability and reputation of enterprises.
3. Setting of grade standards
The formulation of grading standards is the basis of grading and the key link of establishing credit rating system. The accuracy of grading standards directly affects the subsequent grading and the final decision of investors. If the standard is set too high or too low, it will have the influence of distorting the evaluation standard. Therefore, the formulation of rating standards requires the professionals of rating agencies to have very rich working experience and a high degree of understanding and familiarity with the whole market of the debtor's industry, so as to judge the rating standards from the perspective of the whole industry. Moreover, the issuers of commercial acceptance bills are extensive, and the industries and nature of enterprises are also very different, which may greatly exceed the coverage of short-term financing products, so this work is also challenging.
Step 4 stage by stage
Commercial bills with a maturity of 1 year and below belong to short-term debt credit varieties. According to international practice, the credit fluctuation of short-term debt subjects is considered to be small, so the applicable level is relatively narrow, which can be generally divided into four levels, which can be expressed by A, B, C and D; In addition, it is convenient for investors to analyze and compare, and can also refer to the short-term financing classification method with similar maturity and credit volatility.
(3) Credit risk pricing of commercial paper in the era of bill exchange.
The establishment of credit rating system will trigger the re-risk pricing of commercial paper. The risk pricing of commercial paper mainly reflects the relationship between future returns and risks brought by commercial paper assets to investors. At present, the risk pricing of silver ticket in commercial paper is based on the characteristics that the acceptor is a banking institution, which has certain market fairness and transparency; The risk pricing of commercial tickets is the most concerned and headache problem for investors. For many years, the risk pricing of commercial paper can only collect and evaluate the debtor's solvency and risk premium level based on the market information publicly disclosed by investors; Obviously, it is easier for large enterprises with transparent public information and other financing categories to set prices, but for most small and medium-sized enterprises, investors' willingness to invest is obviously reduced or the risk premium level is greatly improved because of the difficulty in defining their credit status.
After the establishment of the credit rating system of commercial paper in the ticket exchange, investors can evaluate the risk of the paper issued by the debtor according to the credit rating of the paper. Generally speaking, debtors with higher credit ratings can obtain funds at lower interest rates, while debtors with lower credit ratings can only raise funds at higher interest rates. Investors can compare the pricing methods of bonds and other bond assets to price risky commercial bills; For example, the popular benchmark interest rate method can be adopted; Taking the yield of the most widely circulated bills in the market as the benchmark interest rate, and then according to the different credit ratings of other bills, the final risk price is obtained by adding or subtracting points or multiplying different grade coefficients on the basis of the benchmark interest rate; If a more complex risk pricing model is set up, the debtor's operating cash flow, market supply and demand, macro policies and other factors can be comprehensively considered.
(D) Differentiation of commercial acceptance bills in the era of exchange of bills.
The development of commercial tickets in the era of ticket exchange may have a deeper development besides the establishment of credit evaluation system and re-risk pricing. First of all, whether in the United States, Britain or Taiwan Province Province, commercial paper derived from payment and settlement function has become an important tool for enterprise financing. However, the development of commercial paper in China is still in the stage of taking payment and settlement as its main function. However, as can be seen from the following data (Figure 3.2), this year, the financing function of commercial tickets has been a flash in the pan compared with the important financing tools of enterprises, and it has performed well; Especially compared with the ultra-short term of 270D, the number of issues is also very close. In the future development, the issuance of commercial tickets may have the characteristics of simple procedures, low cost and high liquidity; Especially after the integration of paper and electricity in the ticket exchange, once the credit evaluation mechanism is established, the liquidity of commercial tickets will be greatly improved and the financing function of commercial tickets will be further strengthened.
Figure 3.2 Data source: wind (short-term financing circulation only includes circulation statistics of non-financial enterprises)
At the same time, due to the important role of commercial paper in supply chain finance, the future development of commercial paper in China may be classified because of its dual attributes of payment and settlement and financing; Commercial bills may be divided into transactional commercial acceptance bills and financing commercial acceptance bills before they are fully developed into enterprise financing tools. In the future, transactional commercial bills can be mainly used to pay the actual debts between enterprises, optimize the capital flow in the supply chain, solve the problem of payment payable by enterprises, and convert some corporate debts into payable and transferable commercial bills; Transactional commercial paper still has the characteristics of fast invoicing, zero cost and simple procedures, and will further highlight its monetization attribute in application. Commercial bill financing can mainly undertake the task of enterprise financing. Institutions participating in the issuance of financing commercial paper need to follow the standardized process formulated by the future ticket exchange, and only after the rating agencies have rated their debtor qualifications can they obtain the issuance qualifications for a wide range of investors in the ticket exchange. As a trading platform for electronic commercial tickets in the future, the ticket exchange can set different trading subjects and investor rights for two commercial tickets with different credit risk pricing, so as to maximize the scope of legal participants and effectively promote the development of commercial tickets with two attributes.
Fourthly, the manifestations and characteristics of the development of commercial acceptance bills in the era of bill exchange.
To sum up, the development of commercial tickets in the era of ticket exchange may be highlighted as follows:
First, the construction and gradual improvement of the debtor's credit evaluation system has prompted commercial bills to re-price their credit through the market, thus breaking the essential circulation constraints of commercial bills;
Second, on the basis of re-pricing, commercial paper will be divided into transactional commercial paper and financing commercial paper, and become an important financial product serving the real economy from multiple angles;
Third, the credit attribute of financing commercial paper may change to the creditor's right attribute, which will also cause changes in the investment demand and investment purpose of banks; As far as banking institutions are concerned, the future investment in financing commercial paper may no longer face the difficulty of credit scale occupation, and the decrease in the proportion of risk assets after the conversion of commercial paper attributes may make commercial paper an important asset category for bank investment;
Fourthly, the content and brokerage subject of the bill brokerage business derived from this will also undergo a series of changes.
Therefore, in the era of bill exchange, in the face of changes in the financial market, commercial acceptance bills will become an important financial product that closely connects the real economy and the financial market; The diversification of attributes will make it an important way of the central bank's monetary transmission mechanism; In the era of bill exchange, commercial acceptance bills will abandon the previous worries about redemption risk in a good credit environment and usher in a new development space, which will become an important choice for banks to invest in large-scale assets.
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