However, due to the economic downturn after the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States and Europe have long implemented low negative interest rates and low bank reserve ratio, so the risks of small and medium-sized banks in the United States and Europe are generally high, so the P/E ratio of global banking stocks is generally low, which is mainly a comprehensive reflection of the global economic growth slowdown, market risks, the bottleneck period of bank performance growth and the strengthening of supervision.
The low P/E ratio of domestic banking stocks is mainly caused by China's economic slowdown, macro-control of the real estate industry, the reform of the dual-track interest rate system, regulatory concessions, the narrowing of the net interest margin of banks, the strengthening of industry competitiveness, the wave of lifting the ban and other factors.
Because the domestic real estate industry has occupied a large proportion in GDP for a long time, it has formed a systematic risk, which not only bubbles house prices, but also binds risks such as finance, local debt, corporate debt, household debt, bank credit and off-balance sheet, financial institutions and capital market, and binds 70% of residents' wealth to real estate, which not only makes the domestic long-term debt problem increasingly serious, but also hinders the overall adjustment of consumption and domestic industrial structure.
The long-term high financialization of the real estate industry has bound the banking industry in an all-round way. All kinds of debt structures, off-balance sheets, wealth management products and profits of banks are closely related to the real estate industry. Therefore, when the real estate industry impacts China's economy from systemic risks and needs to be adjusted, the valuation of bank stocks will inevitably be reflected in advance.
The circulation of bank shares mostly belongs to super operators. With the rapid expansion of domestic A-shares, the phenomenon of oversupply in the market is more obvious, and the funds that originally pushed up the market are insufficient. In this case, the willingness of the main funds to intervene in banking stocks is not strong.
Wind data shows that as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the market value of the fund's bank positions has decreased by 96 billion yuan, and the number of listed bankers held has decreased from 36 to 3 1 family. The reduction ratio in a single quarter is the highest level since 20 16, and the reduction is concentrated in leading banks. Due to the health and safety problems in China in the first quarter, the expectations of institutions for bank shares declined, which led to the reduction of bank shares, and the valuation of bank shares gradually fell to a historical low.
In the first quarter of this year, 22 of the 36 listed banks achieved double-digit growth in revenue, and 18 banks maintained double-digit growth in profits. The profits of listed banks account for 40% ~ 50% of the profits of all A-share listed companies for a long time, which strengthens domestic macro-control. Under the condition that the benchmark interest rate of the central bank remains unchanged, banks will gradually lower the net interest margin of the banking industry by continuously lowering the bank loan interest rate, which will bring some pressure to the profit growth of the banking industry.
This year's global economic recession will affect the domestic economic growth, and the debt pressure of the government, enterprises and individuals is expanding, which makes the market expect the non-performing rate of the banking industry to increase.
In 20 19, the average NPL ratio of listed banks decreased from 1.52% at the beginning of the year to 1.46% at the end of the year. Among them, the non-performing loan ratio of large commercial banks and national joint-stock banks decreased, while the non-performing loan ratio of urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased. According to the data of China Banking Regulatory Commission, at the end of the first quarter of this year, the NPL ratio of commercial banks nationwide was 1.9 1%, up 5 basis points from the end of last year. It is expected that the non-performing rate of banks will further increase in the second half of this year, but the overall situation is still under control.
The overall P/B ratio of the 20 19 banking sector is about 0.72 times, which has broken the net in a large area. This situation has not changed this year. Although the current valuation of bank stocks is low, it has rebounded a few days ago, but it still lacks the strong support of market funds, so the increase is limited. Investors can decide whether to invest in banking stocks according to the actual situation of market funds. If the market capital situation improves greatly in the future, bank stocks still have investment value.