According to the statistics of CICC, September will usher in the peak period of maturity of credit bonds in the second half of the year, and the total amount of resale due in the whole month exceeds 860 billion yuan, which is the highest in the second half of the year, among which the monthly maturity of low-rated bonds and non-state-owned bonds is also the highest in the second half of the year.
Under the guidance of the policy of "housing without speculation", many institutions believe that it will become more and more difficult for housing enterprises to achieve large-scale net financing, and the credit risk of the industry may rise, and some housing enterprises may face greater liquidity pressure.
Real estate debt "tenacious" growth
The data shows that the overall supply of credit bonds in July and August reached 822,654.38 billion yuan and 930.5 billion yuan respectively, returning to the high level in the first half of the year. After considering the repayment factor, the net financing was 654.38+0969 billion yuan and 296.6 billion yuan respectively, which reversed the situation that the net financing was insufficient 1000 billion yuan for two consecutive months in May and June. In contrast, the financing scale and net financing scale in May this year were only 556.6 billion yuan and 386.5438 billion yuan respectively, and the two figures in June were only 577.4 billion yuan and 96.7 billion yuan respectively.
Analysts believe that the acceleration of the supply of credit bonds in August is due to the prominent cost advantage of issuing bonds after the decline in yield, and on the other hand, the issuer needs to complete the semi-annual report in September.
In July and August, the scale of bond financing in the real estate industry maintained growth. In July, the issuance of real estate bonds reached 53.2 billion yuan, which was 1.8 times that of June, and the net financing scale was-4.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.8 billion yuan compared with June. In August, the issuance of real estate bonds increased by more than 30%, reaching 70.9 billion yuan, and the scale of net financing also turned positive, reaching 7.8 billion yuan, a four-month high.
According to the report of CICC, if urban investment bonds are excluded, the net financing of real estate bonds has turned positive in July and further increased to more than 654.38+05 billion yuan in August. According to the report, the supply of real estate bonds has further increased in the past two months, on the one hand, because the issuers who got the approval in the early stage "seized" the issuance window, on the other hand, it is also related to the substitution of bonds after other financing channels were tightened.
However, it is worth noting that in August, the supply of US dollar bonds in China real estate fell sharply. The data shows that the amount of US dollar bonds issued by China real estate in that month was only $654.38+88 million, compared with $6.54 billion last month. Some analysts believe that the shrinking supply of overseas real estate bonds in August may be caused by the sluggish seasonal issuance, but it also has the impact of tightening overseas financing and rising financing costs of housing enterprises.
Tightening of financing channels
Since 20 19, real estate policies have been intensively introduced. In April, the keynote of "staying and not speculating" reiterated that the tightening trend of regulation was obvious, and the financing channels of housing enterprises were all tightened.
In May, the regulatory authorities issued a document to prevent funds from illegally flowing into the real estate market through trust, financial leasing, AMC (asset management company) and other channels, and asked banks to conduct more rigorous audits on real estate projects, shrink the front-end land acquisition financing of real estate enterprises, and prevent misappropriation of funds. At the same time, due to the hot land market and rising house prices, the regulators quickly tightened the financing for Wang Di, and the issuance of radical housing bonds and ABS was stopped. In July, the regulatory authorities talked about trust companies whose real estate trust business developed too fast. In the same month, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to regulate the overseas issuance of bonds by real estate enterprises, requiring real estate enterprises to issue overseas bonds only to replace medium-and long-term overseas debts due in the following year. The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on July 30th once again emphasized "Don't speculate in real estate" and proposed "Don't use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy".
Statistics show that since May, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development funds began to decline continuously, from 8.9% in April to 7% in July, indicating that the impact of the above-mentioned policies on real estate financing has already appeared.
It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, the dollar debt of housing enterprises and real estate trusts contributed a considerable amount of new real estate financing, but since July, both of them have declined significantly.
Looking back, the financing pressure faced by real estate enterprises is accumulating, and the credit risk of the industry may rise. On the one hand, the financing channels of housing enterprises have narrowed in an all-round way. On the other hand, housing enterprises have to cope with the peak of debt repayment in the second half of the year.
When the peak of debt repayment meets the tightening of financing
According to the statistics of CICC, September will usher in the peak period of maturity of credit bonds in the second half of the year, and the total amount of resale due in the whole month will exceed 860 billion yuan. According to institutional statistics, according to the industry classification, excluding the urban investment, the maturity of real estate credit bonds in September and the scale of entering the resale period were 38.6 billion yuan and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, both the highest monthly levels in the second half of the year, and the total scale of maturity resale was 82 billion yuan. Among them, the maturity and resale scale of non-state-owned real estate bonds were 30.3 billion yuan and 27.9 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 78% and 64% of the total maturity and resale of real estate bonds in September. The maturity and resale pressure of this distributor deserve more attention.
TF Securities fixed income research report pointed out that under the policy guidance of "housing and not speculation", housing financing is facing a comprehensive tightening trend. From the perspective of management and control methods, "balance management and control" is often adopted for various financing channels of housing enterprises. Most housing enterprises can still "borrow the new and return the old", but it will become more and more difficult to achieve large-scale net financing. There is no incremental funds, or even a slight contraction, which means that some housing enterprises will face greater liquidity pressure.
Xia Dan, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that the third and fourth quarters of this year were the peak of debt repayment for real estate enterprises. If the scale of debt due, early payment and recovery are considered at the same time, the actual scale may be even larger. However, in the first half of this year, large and medium-sized housing enterprises issued bonds on a large scale during the marginal relaxation stage of real estate bond supervision. In the first four months, domestic and foreign bonds increased significantly year-on-year, and borrowing new and returning old bonds can cover the scale of bonds due this year. In the long run, from the second half of 2020 to 202 1, the debts due by housing enterprises may be even greater, and the subsequent debt repayment pressure cannot be ignored.
Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told china securities journal that the pressure of centralized maturity of real estate bonds is really great recently. It is expected that in the near future, housing enterprises will take the initiative to go to inventory by exchanging prices for quantities and reducing prices to achieve better capital withdrawal.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, mentioned that from the perspective of real estate trust and overseas bond issuance supervision, it is mainly to regulate rather than completely suspend. For small and medium-sized housing enterprises and housing enterprises with high debt ratio, it is difficult to expect financing in the future, but the impact on large enterprises is relatively limited.
Guotai Junan research report pointed out that the pressure of cash inflow and inflow such as real estate sales and financing has increased, and the only advantage is that housing enterprises have begun to actively shrink their land acquisition. Therefore, judging the credit spread of real estate bonds will continue to expand, and it is difficult to eliminate the spread differentiation between grades in a short time.