/kloc-in February, 2006, Evergrande Real Estate won the commercial and residential plot in Foshan City, Guangdong Province 109000 square meters at a floor price of 9359 yuan/square meter after 133 rounds of quotation, with a premium rate of 177.28%, which is close to the surrounding selling price.
This is just a microcosm of the recent land boom in second-tier cities. From the end of 20 15 to the beginning of 20 16, second-tier cities such as Nanjing (real estate) and Hangzhou (real estate) frequently took pictures of sky-high land kings.
65438+ 10 13, Sunac China won the commercial and residential land on the west side of Changgang Road and on both sides of Hengsan Road in Foshan for 96 10/00000 yuan, and entered Foshan for the first time. The chief analyst of a real estate believes that a series of policies to relax real estate regulation and control since the end of September, 2065438+05 have caused the market to heat up and become divided. After the skyrocketing of first-tier cities, especially Shenzhen (real estate) last year, many price depressions have been filled, and the hot spots in the real estate market will be concentrated in second-tier cities in 20 16.
There are frequent land kings in second-tier cities.
Third-and fourth-tier cities have high inventories, and second-tier cities have frequent land kings. Since the fourth quarter of last year, there has been a land transaction boom in second-tier cities such as Nanjing, Hangzhou and Chengdu. , and has repeatedly set records in high total price and high unit price. This situation continued until 20 16.
It is completely different from the situation that 20 14 and 20 15 Beijing (real estate) and Shanghai (real estate) almost swept the list. In the "TOP 10 Land Floor Price" list in 20 16, Beijing and Shanghai only occupied five seats, and the rest were taken by Nanjing and Hangzhou.
Nanjing G68 Wang Di topped the list with a final floor price of 42,000 yuan/square meter, setting a new record for Wang Di in Nanjing, while Hangzhou also occupied four seats in the top ten of the list.
65438+1On October 25th, Sunac won the bid for Hangzhou Sanbao and Jianqiao Home with a total price of 3.075 billion yuan, setting a new floor price in Hangzhou. This price is also close to or even higher than the price of some surrounding buildings. Take the Sanbao homestead of 23,268 yuan/square meter as an example, and the lowest price of the surrounding Qianjiang house is 2,285 yuan/kloc-0 yuan/square meter. Land prices hit a new high, which will drive up the prices of surrounding buildings.
On June 5438+ 10, the land kings of Nanjing and Hangzhou appeared frequently, and the land transactions in other second-tier cities such as Wuhan (real estate), Hefei (real estate), Chengdu and Suzhou (real estate) also increased significantly, and the fierce competition in local auctions even reached the trend of first-tier cities.
Take Hefei as an example. In 20 15, Beijing jinyu, sunac China, fosun real estate and Gezhouba (600068, stock bar) entered the Hefei market for the first time. Jingjinyu and Sunac China won the land in Wang Di, and invited real estate (000024, shares it), Huaxia Happiness (600340, shares it), Longhu and Longhu.
The fiery land market in second-tier cities is not unrelated to the easing of bank credit. This round of real estate recovery in first-and second-tier cities since 20 15 is mainly due to the loose credit.
According to the analysis of a research center, the biggest reason for the emergence of unit price land kings in second-tier cities in June 5438+ 10 was firstly based on the fiery transaction support of cities. The differentiation of inventory pressure between cities and the reduction of land supply in first-tier cities further aggravated the land competition in second-tier cities. "Hangzhou and Nanjing are the leaders of second-tier cities, and it is inevitable that the unit price will be refreshed."
Risk increase in first-tier cities
Second-tier cities show signs of being hot, largely because funds are hedging, and the main developers of land acquisition are moving towards the market. Since 20 15 years, the total investment of the top 20 benchmark real estate enterprises in the land market has been 35171300 million, which exceeds 50% for the first time in history, accounting for 50.74%.
But at present, the land market in first-tier cities already contains great risks. With the large amount of funds from financial, insurance, real estate and other institutions entering the land market in first-tier cities, people's cognition has been constantly refreshed by sky-high prices, resulting in the floor price of many plots exceeding the surrounding selling price.
According to the statistics of a real estate, of the 49 commercial housing sites supplied by Beijing last year, only 3 million square meters were pure commercial housing, and other types of properties such as affordable housing were built in other areas. According to the floor price of 3 million square meters of commercial housing, the average floor price of residential land in Beijing in 20 15 years has reached about 38 thousand. In the same period, the average transaction price of real commercial housing in Beijing is only about 30,000, which means that according to the current cost price expectation in Wang Di, the house price needs to rise by more than 100% in the next two years.
The high land price in first-tier cities has already contained greater risks. In particular, the land price driven by such funds is not calm, which will lead to the trend of pan-luxury after the second half of 20 16. According to authoritative analysis, the centralized supply of luxury houses brought about by the uncontrolled land market in Beijing will lead to soaring market pressure, and related developers will face great operational risks.
Real estate companies are also aware of the risks, and the amount of land taken by first-tier cities has begun to decrease. In June 5438+ 10, the land transfer area of first-tier cities decreased by 70% year-on-year, accounting for only 12% of the whole country, which is also the lowest in the past five years.
At the same time, second-tier cities have become the scent of housing enterprises. Taking Sunac and Evergrande as examples, Sunac has entered eight core second-tier cities, including Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Xi 'an (real estate) and Jinan (real estate), as well as Beijing, Tianjin (real estate) and Hangzhou since the middle of 20 15. Just entering 20 16, Sunac and Evergrande successively laid out second-tier cities such as Foshan.
Affected by the Spring Festival, up to now, in February, seven residential land projects have been signed in ten major cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing, Chongqing, Xiamen (real estate) and Dalian (real estate), with an average floor price as high as 8872 yuan/square meter, setting a new monthly record, with a turnover of 2065438+February 2005.
Will housing prices skyrocket in second-tier cities?
There is a linkage effect between land price and house price. Will the housing prices in the second-tier cities that shoot the land king skyrocket? During the Spring Festival, with the return of people from first-tier cities, housing prices in second-and third-tier cities have become the focus of attention.
Some second-tier cities have seen the phenomenon of rising house prices. Taking Nanjing as an example, the price index data of China Index Academy (hereinafter referred to as "China Index Institute") 100 cities show that the price of new houses in Nanjing has been rising since the second quarter of 20 15, from 20 16 to 10 in October, and the price has risen to 1.
In addition to Nanjing and Hangzhou, the real estate market in emerging hot-spot second-tier cities, such as Hefei and Wuhan, has reasonable supply, sufficient demand, short supply and hot sales, and there is basically no pressure for market deregulation, and house prices are also rising steadily. At the beginning of 20 16, there was a "housing shortage" in many areas of Hefei property market. In June of 5438+0, the average house price in Hefei "broke nine" for the first time, reaching 9008 yuan/square meter.
(The above answers were published on 20 16-02- 18. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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