Therefore, Energy Review organized the 65438th+09th academic salon. He Zuoxiu, academician of China Academy of Sciences, Wei Jun, chief economist of Energy Research Institute of State Grid Corporation of China, Ding Mincheng, vice president of Accenture Greater China and managing director of Energy Resources Division, and other experts described the future of "Global Energy Internet" for readers. ...
The day after tomorrow is not far away.
After a drastic climate change, the land is vast, the air is thin, plants wither and there are endless ruins everywhere. Survivors compete for scarce resources and food in desperation for survival. ...
This is a series of scenes and plots often staged in disaster movie, represented by The Day After Tomorrow, which reflects people's worries about the deteriorating climate and their fear of survival after the resources are exhausted. Some people may say that this is totally unfounded, and such a day is just a stunt for the movie to win the box office. However, more and more data and facts show that the exhaustion of resources and climate deterioration in movies have gradually approached us in reality.
The two oil crises in the 1970s and the third oil crisis in the 1990s triggered long-term structural changes in world energy. The total energy production and consumption continues to increase, and the large-scale development and utilization of fossil energy leads to energy shortage, environmental pollution and global climate change. The global energy economy dominated by fossil fuels for a long time is entering a dangerous and unstable predicament.
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BP's latest World Energy Statistical Yearbook 20 14 shows that by the end of 20 13, the world's proven oil reserves were 1.6879 trillion barrels, which can meet the global production demand for 53.3 years. The proven natural gas reserves in the world are 185.7 trillion cubic meters, which can meet the global production demand for 54.8 years. The proven coal reserves in the world are 8.91500 million tons, which can meet the global production demand of 1 13 years.
With the crisis of fossil energy supply supporting the current world economy, there is an insatiable demand for energy in human production and life. In the past decade, the average annual growth rate of global primary energy consumption was 2.5%. Although the global primary energy consumption only increased by 2.3% in 20 13 due to the overall weakness of the world economy, which was lower than the average level in the past decade, this growth momentum has not changed.
Some people pin their hopes of eliminating the contradiction between energy supply shortage and energy demand growth on the growth of fossil energy exploitation and the development and utilization of new fossil energy, mainly shale gas. However, the capacity of the earth is limited, and its mineral resources are even more limited. The damage to the earth's environment and the bad influence on climate change during the development and utilization of fossil energy can not be ignored. If we want to squeeze the last drop of "oil and water" from the earth in exchange for the energy power to support human social and economic development, it is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst.
Therefore, in order to alleviate the energy crisis, ensure energy security, protect the natural environment on which human beings depend, and effectively curb and delay the arrival of the day after tomorrow, we must place more hope on the development and utilization of clean energy and the transformation of new energy sources.
The global energy internet has built a brand-new energy structure and energy economic model for the world that is entering a dilemma.
Who is the protagonist of the energy revolution?
188 1 year, william thomson, a world-renowned scientist known as the father of thermodynamics, warned the fragile energy base of Britain, which was then an "empire that never sets". Although the great industrial revolution brought by coal gave birth to Britain's strength, Thomson believed that Britain's glorious period was coming to an end, because "the underground coal in the world would be exhausted" and the only hope was that "windmills or fans would rise again in some form".
Thomson's "advice" to Britain more than 100 years ago has not only become a dilemma that all countries in the world are facing-the exhaustion of fossil energy, but also predicted the rise of clean energy represented by new energy and renewable energy in the world.
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Wei Jun pointed out that under the framework of the global energy Internet, the world energy structure will be dominated by new energy and renewable energy. Through the large-scale development and utilization of clean energy, the energy structure will be optimized and energy efficiency will be improved, constantly surpassing and replacing the carbon-based energy that dominated previous energy revolutions. The fundamental way to realize this blueprint is to promote clean substitution in energy development and implement electric energy substitution in energy consumption.
In terms of energy development, we must first realize the substitution of clean energy for fossil energy. Only in this way can the world energy structure change from fossil energy as the main source and clean energy as the auxiliary source to clean energy as the main source and fossil energy as the auxiliary source. However, new and renewable energy sources such as hydropower, nuclear energy, wind energy and solar energy cannot be directly used under normal circumstances and need to be converted into electrical energy before they can be used. Therefore, we must increase the proportion of new energy and renewable energy in the world energy structure, and increase the proportion of electric energy in energy consumption terminals.
According to the data of World Energy Statistical Yearbook 20 14, although oil is still the most important fuel in the world, it accounts for 32.9% of global energy consumption. However, the proportion of oil decreased continuously for 14 years, which was the lowest since 1965. In 20 13, the global hydropower generation increased by 2.9%, and the contribution of other renewable energy sources to global power generation was 5.3%, an increase of 16.3%. Since 2000, the total output of wind power generation and solar power generation has increased by 28% every year. This string of interesting figures fully shows that the protagonist of the new energy revolution has quietly appeared.
The global water energy resources exceed 5 billion kilowatts, the land wind energy resources exceed 1 trillion kilowatts, and the solar energy resources exceed 1 trillion kilowatts, far exceeding all the energy needs of human society. With the progress of technology and the application of new materials, the development efficiency of clean energy such as wind energy, solar energy and ocean energy has been continuously improved, and the technical economy and market competitiveness have been gradually enhanced. Electric power will become the leading energy source in the world. At the same time, as a high-quality, clean and efficient secondary energy, electric energy is the most important energy form in the future, and most of the energy demand can be replaced by electric energy.
It can be seen that clean substitution and electric energy substitution will be the inevitable trend of world energy development and global energy Internet construction, and electric energy will be the protagonist of the new energy revolution.
The Future of World Energy
As the main body of clean energy substitution and electric energy substitution, and the flexible conversion of electric energy to other energy sources, electric energy traditionally regarded as secondary energy is among the primary energy sources. Ding Mincheng believes that although electric energy cannot be directly obtained from nature and needs to be converted by other energy sources, the development of new energy and renewable energy makes electric energy have the characteristics of primary energy.
This change will subvert the characteristics of the future world energy and bring about changes in people's lives through the establishment of the global energy Internet.
All kinds of smart home appliances record and analyze users' usage habits in real time, choose the most energy-saving scheme, and give guidance on power consumption behavior at the terminal; Distributed clean energy power generation system, which provides clean electricity to users and sells the remaining energy to power grid enterprises; The electric vehicle automatically selects the economical time period to charge according to the user's travel habits and itinerary, and makes a remote charging and replacing appointment; Users enjoy distance education, medical care and other services at home; The TV records the TV programs that users like according to their habits, and the refrigerator automatically sends an order application to the supermarket according to the food "inventory". ...
These scenes that sound like "science fiction" are gradually being realized.
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Yif Wang, assistant general manager of Xidian General Electric Automation Co., Ltd. pointed out that the energy with electric energy as the main carrier will be composed of interstate and transnational backbone power grids and power grids of various voltage levels in various countries through the global energy Internet, including transmission networks and distribution networks, without traditional media such as cars, boats and pipelines.
With the change of energy structure, main body and transmission form, it is objectively required to build a backbone UHV power grid around the world, promote the wide application of smart grid, and strengthen energy and power technology innovation. With the successful application of UHV technology in China, this change has been verified. At the same time, the research and application of smart grid technology on a global scale will also become a strong technical support and material basis for building a global energy Internet.
Experts attending the meeting believe that the global energy Internet with UHV as the backbone can connect large energy bases, adapt to various centralized and distributed power sources, and deliver renewable energy such as wind energy, solar energy and ocean energy to various users in the form of electric energy. It is a global energy allocation platform with wide service range, strong configuration capability, safety, reliability and low carbon, and has the characteristics of strong power grid, wide interconnection, high intelligence and open interaction. As a result, the global energy distribution and trading methods will also be broken, and the energy market will face tremendous changes.
To sum up, promoting the construction of global energy Internet and realizing "two substitutes" is in the opportunity period of global renewable energy development, and it is also facing multiple challenges such as international politics, economic interests, social environment, energy policy, market construction and technological innovation. It is necessary for all parties to strengthen communication, gather knowledge, enhance trust, form joint forces, and make great contributions to the sustainable development of human society. (Text/Yang Qing)