It is extremely difficult to capture the law of technological innovation, but the law of technological diffusion can be captured.
Everett Rogers, a famous American communication theorist, published the book Diffusion of Creation on 1962 after many case studies. Rogers summed up the basic law of innovation diffusion in a social system-innovation diffusion S curve.
Figure: S curve of innovation diffusion, source: Rogers 1
There are differences in market acceptance of new technologies and products. There are pioneers and early adopters in every product field. After them, more and more consumers began to adopt this innovative product, and product sales reached a peak. When few consumers did not use the product, sales began to decrease.
Therefore, according to the acceptance of innovation, Rogers divided the audience into five categories: innovators, early adopters, early masses, late masses and laggards. Their corresponding adoption rates were 2.5%, 13.5%, 34%, 34% and 16%, respectively, showing a normal distribution.
The adoption rate can be expressed by market share and market saturation. For example, the ownership rate of household electric vehicles indicates the degree of innovation diffusion of electric vehicles in the field of household consumption.
Technological diffusion is more directly reflected in the economic cycle than technological innovation, which is more conducive to our prediction of economic trends. For example, in the third economic cycle, diesel locomotives were accepted by the early public, the automobile industry entered a period of rapid development, and the number of family cars increased rapidly.
In the past thirty years, the number of family cars in China has increased rapidly, and now the number of thousands of people has reached 170. However, this data is only equivalent to the level of the United States 1927, and only about one-fifth of the current level in the United States (837 units per thousand people).
If we add up the innovation acceptance (market share), Rogers shows us an S-shaped curve, which is the S-shaped curve of innovation diffusion.
Figure: Example of S-curve of innovation diffusion, source: Rogers 1.
Schumpeter believes that technological diffusion, like technological innovation, is unbalanced and full of uncertainty. However, Rogers captured the S-shaped law of technology diffusion from the perspective of communication. Technology diffusion reflects the influence of technology on economy more intuitively than technology innovation. The S curve of technology diffusion determines the wave evolution of economic growth.
It may be a long process from technological invention to product innovation to large-scale production and popularization of products. 1982, Italian economist Giovanni Dorsey inherited Schumpeter's thought, put forward the theory of "technology paradigm-technology trajectory", and discussed the relationship between economy and technology.
Technology follows the laws of nature and economy follows the laws of economy. The intersection of technology and economy lies in the coupling of technology maturity and economies of scale. Whether economies of scale can be formed is a key consideration in developing, introducing and popularizing technology.
Take the car as an example. Electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles started almost at the same time, both of which were born in the second industrial revolution, and electric vehicles were earlier. As early as 1863, Belgian tienne Lenoir invented the hydrogen energy car, which was 25 years earlier than the Mercedes-Benz gasoline car. After that, power technology was popularized in the industrial field, but electric vehicles have not been popularized so far. The main reason is that battery technology is not mature enough to trigger economies of scale.
Let's look at diesel locomotives again. 1860, Frenchman lenoir imitated the structure of the steam engine and designed and manufactured the first practical gas engine. The thermal efficiency of this gas locomotive is only about 4%.
1883, Daimler company of Germany manufactured the first vertical gasoline engine. 1888, karl benz, a German, built the first gasoline car that could be used on the road. 1897, German engineer Diesel developed the first compression ignition internal combustion engine (diesel engine). The thermal efficiency of this diesel engine has increased to 26%, which is a famous diesel engine.
Diesel engine has stimulated the nerves of the whole power industry. Daimler, Maibakh and Ben Ci have gradually established gasoline vehicle manufacturing plants.
But it is not enough to meet the above conditions, because the cost of diesel locomotives at that time was still very high-high car price, high fuel cost and high maintenance cost. (For details, please refer to the History of the Hundred Years Energy Revolution | Where will the new energy vehicles go? 》)
Figure: 1900 to 2009, the number of cars owned by thousands of people in the United States. Source: Zhiben Society.
The large-scale application of diesel locomotives also depends on the following three conditions:
First, Ford invented the automobile manufacturing assembly line.
Daimler and Maibakh also started to manufacture gasoline cars in 1889, but the price was as high as $2,000-4,000 at that time, with limited sales. 19 13, Ford built the world's first assembly line, which greatly improved the efficiency and reduced the cost of making cars. Ford Model T initially sold for $825, equivalent to two years' income of ordinary American workers at that time.
Old Ford's slogan is "making cars that everyone can afford". By the time 1927 stopped production, Ford Model T produced150,000 vehicles, and the price dropped to $260. At that time, the average American worker could buy a car in half a year, and the car ownership has reached the level of China today.
Second, the discovery of large oil fields, the sharp drop in oil prices, the rapid decline in the cost of gasoline vehicles, and the large-scale promotion of internal combustion engines to the industrial field.
Third, European and American countries have gradually formed a road network, and the advantages of gasoline vehicle endurance have emerged, the use value of automobiles has increased, and the road network has reduced maintenance costs.
Therefore, technology diffusion is often the result of economic system coordination. Of course, Rogers admits that not all technologies are 100% accepted by the market, but this does not affect the S-shaped trajectory of technology diffusion. The automobile diffusion momentum in the United States was interrupted by World War II, but with the economic revival, the number of automobiles increased rapidly and finally reached saturation, showing an S-shaped curve.
We combine the important S-shaped curve of technology diffusion in human history with the wave line of economic growth.
Figure: Technology diffusion and economic growth. Source: Zhiben Society.
Whenever basic innovation spreads on a large scale, the global economy enters a boom cycle. For example, after 1787, the British steam engine began to be widely used in the textile industry, and the textile industry's production capacity expanded greatly, and the economy ushered in the first boom cycle.
Whenever basic innovation is widely accepted, the technology dividend disappears, and new basic innovation is not recognized by the market, then the economy enters a recession cycle. For example, since 1837, the British cotton textile market has been saturated, with a serious overcapacity, and there have been many crises of overcapacity.
Once the economy enters the recession and depression cycle, enterprises begin to reduce production capacity, reduce investment, close factories, fire workers, and reduce prices to inventory. At the same time, some poorly managed enterprises may go bankrupt. Others try to innovate technology, develop new products and create new markets and demands. The diffusion curve of new technology promotes the gradual recovery of the economy and once again ushers in the boom cycle.
In this period, the technology diffusion curve is highly consistent with the economic growth curve.
In the fourth economic cycle, the proliferation of technologies such as television, airplanes, petrochemicals, nuclear energy, polymers and air transportation promoted the recovery of the world economy after World War II. The map of household ownership of household appliances in the United States in the 20 th century more intuitively reflects the diffusion track of household appliance technology.
Figure: 1940-2020 basic innovation diffusion map, source: Guanggang, Zhiben Society.
Figure: Use of household appliances in the United States. Source: Yu Shao 2.
In the era of globalization, technology diffusion has a great influence on the economy of other countries, and even has decisive significance.
From the perspective of communication, Rogers believes that the process of technology diffusion includes four links: understanding, persuasion, decision-making and confirmation. From the information characteristics, technology and other knowledge have externalities and learnable habits. From an economic point of view, technology diffusion comes more from exchange.
The technological learning and imitation of late-developing countries, as well as global market transactions, have accelerated the global diffusion of technology.
Historically, every global industrial transfer will give birth to a number of important manufacturing and foreign trade exporters. The United States and Germany were the beneficiaries of technology diffusion in the first industrial revolution. The United States and Germany are backward countries, learning, imitating and introducing advanced textile technology and factory management from Britain. The United States and Germany will become the leaders and innovators of the second industrial revolution in the future.
After that, the technologies of textiles, railways, electricity, automobiles, steel and petrochemicals of the first and second industrial revolutions spread all over the world. After Meiji Restoration, Japan became the beneficiary of this technology diffusion.
After World War II, Japan and Germany were overthrown. The United States transferred traditional industries and technologies such as steel and textiles to Japan and Germany, which promoted the rapid economic recovery of Japan and Germany, and made in Japan and Germany gained development opportunities.
Figure: Technology diffusion map of Britain, America, Japan and China. Source: Hirooka, Zhiben Agency.
In the 1960s and 1970s, the trade friction between Japan and the United States intensified, and domestic industries in Japan and Germany became saturated, gradually transferring labor-intensive industries and technologies to South Korea, China, Taiwan Province Province, China, Hongkong and Singapore, the "four little dragons of Asia".
After 1980s, European and American countries, Japanese and Asian "Four Little Dragons" transferred labor-intensive and energy-intensive industries to Philippine, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesian "Four Little Dragons" and China.
Benefiting from the technological dividend of globalization, the four little dragons and four little dragons in Asia rose rapidly in the 1980s and 1990s. However, the good momentum of Asian economy was ended by the Asian financial turmoil of 1997.
After the Millennium, China became the biggest beneficiary of this big industrial transfer and technology diffusion, and made it "Made in China".
In the past forty years, China has absorbed the technology of the first, second and third industrial revolutions with the help of the wave of globalization.
Common technologies and assembly lines in Europe and America, such as textiles, steel, electromechanical, household appliances, automobiles, electronics and computers, as well as a series of knowledge and systems in finance, banking, stocks, therapeutics, enterprises and basic science, were introduced into China through industrial gradient transfer. The technological dividend of globalization is an important driving force for China's sustained and rapid economic growth.
refer to
1 innovation diffusion, Rogers, Electronic Industry Press;
(2) The paradigm of innovation: Compaq's The World System and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers, and Yu Shao's New Wealth;