To be honest, in my eyes, the background has always been only a reference standard of the platform, not an element to judge whether the platform is safe or not.
However, many investors believe that in the P2P industry, only one person's background can guarantee the security of his principal?
This idea is a bit naive!
Especially after this wave of thunder tide, we should carefully choose P2P, such as a platform with real business, strong strength and strong profitability, which has relatively strong anti-risk ability.
To put it bluntly, it is the ability to look at a platform.
Although it is the future trend of P2P industry. However, at present, the major platforms are still in the dark. Considering that investors are not mature at present, this is also a last resort.
Today, let's talk about how to quantitatively evaluate the capabilities of P2P platforms and reduce the probability of stepping on mines.
How to treat the bottom propulsion capability of a platform?
In Zuo Ge's view, the ability of P2P platform is mainly reflected in these points: third-party guarantee, performance insurance funds, collateral funds, platform's own funds and platform shareholders' funds.
0 1 third party guarantee
Third-party guarantee companies, usually cooperating with P2P platforms, will charge an annualized fee of 5- 10% of the matching transaction amount. This part of the fees collected will usually be used as the amount of funds that can be guaranteed for cooperation with the platform (PS: the balance of guarantee liability of a financing guarantee company shall not exceed 10 times of its net assets).
For example, the bad debt rate of a platform is about 3%, and the guarantee fee charged by the guarantee company will exceed 3 points of the bad debt rate (this is the profit rate of the guarantee company), which is about 6%.
On the one hand, the premise that third-party guarantees are willing to pay in advance is based on the normal operation of the platform. If the bad debt rate of the platform soars sharply, for example, it reaches about 10%.
The guarantee company either asks the platform to increase the guarantee fee, or admits that it does not have enough funds to advance the excessive bad debt cost, that is, the guarantee company is unable to advance it (see Tuteng Loan Extension).
On the other hand, don't get on the bus blindly when you see that the platform is guaranteed by a third party. Some guarantee companies are actually related parties of the platform, that is, self-guarantee, so there is no guarantee at all.
Third-party guarantee funds: assuming cooperation with a third-party guarantee company, according to the aforementioned 3% guarantee amount, third-party guarantee funds = 3%* total outstanding balance.
02 performance insurance fund
Performance insurance premium, that is, the insurance premium that the insurance company can pay if the platform project is overdue.
Performance insurance is usually carried out by P2P platform and insurance companies in the form of projects. The insurance company will conduct a rigorous risk assessment on the platform projects, and then consider whether to underwrite the platform projects.
Simply put, if the platform borrower defaults and does not pay back the money, the insurance company must pay the lender's principal and interest first. From this perspective, performance insurance can directly guarantee the safety of the lender's principal and interest, which is really useful.
The subject matter of performance insurance that the insurance company cooperates with P2P will be strictly audited before underwriting, and only the relatively high-quality part will be underwritten. In other words, the quality of the subject matter of performance insurance is relatively high, the risk is relatively low, and the insurance company is not so cheap.
However, the performance insurance of some platforms only covers some projects, so it is not safe to think that the platform is guaranteed by performance insurance. If you meet Lao Lai, the insurance company may not pay.
03 platform's own funds
On the one hand, the platform's own funds mainly include platform net profit, fixed assets, venture capital financing and paid-in capital.
However, the limitation is that the platform generally does not publish the data of its net profit and net assets (this has been improved at present, and the platform needs to disclose the audit report for the record), so this part of the funds can be roughly judged from the disclosed venture capital financing amount and paid-in capital.
On the other hand, the platform borrower's collateral is also one of the underlying capital of the platform. For example, the car loan platform, if the borrower is overdue, the platform can be used as an investor to realize collateral through legal channels.
However, it should be noted that the market price of collateral fluctuates, and the problem of unclear ownership caused by multiple mortgages of collateral is not so easy to solve.
Platform's own funds: the priority is calculated according to the net assets+the platform's net profit in the last year. If the data of net assets cannot be obtained, it can also be calculated according to the actual venture capital financing amount or paid-in registered capital of the platform, generally taking the largest of the three.
04 platform shareholder funds
The capital of platform shareholders, translated in vernacular Chinese, is whether the father of the platform is rich and powerful, and can use the operating income, investment income and self-owned assets of platform shareholders to help the platform tide over the difficulties when the platform is in crisis.
Generally speaking, there are three relationships between platforms and shareholders: 1. Shareholders are controlling shareholders, and P2P is their main business; 2. Shareholders are controlling shareholders, and P2P is a subsidiary business; 3. Shareholders only participate in shares as a kind of financial investment.
That is, the relationship between father and son, father and adopted son, and michel platini and adopted son. These three relationships determine whether the shareholders' meeting will cover the platform and how much capacity it will provide.
As for many investors who like to divide platforms according to the nature of shareholders, such as the listing department, the state-owned assets department and the venture capital department, it just shows who the father of the platform is, which does not mean that shareholders will definitely build the platform.
Another thing to note is that sometimes shareholders are not only the protection of the platform, but also the scourge of the platform. For example, Money Platform is a typical case in which a son is cheated by his father.
Platform shareholders have all funds: generally speaking, as the controlling shareholder and P2P is its main business, they can be regarded as all shareholders (100%); Shareholders are controlling shareholders, and P2P is a subsidiary business, which can be regarded as shareholders' part (50%); Shareholders only participate in shares, and as a financial investment, they have no obligation (0%).
How to calculate the bottom capacity of the second platform
Bottom-up funding is only part of the platform's bottom-up capabilities. It is also necessary to consider the scale of the platform, that is, the part of the money that the platform borrower still owes investors.
Only by considering the underlying funds and the scale to be raised can the underlying capabilities of the P2P platform be reflected. We can evaluate the capability of a platform by calculating its leverage ratio.
The calculation formula of platform leverage ratio is: leverage ratio = scale to be collected/underlying funds.
The calculation formula of the bottom fund is: bottom fund = partner bottom fund+platform own bottom fund+platform shareholder bottom fund.
PS: In the above formula, there are three types of methods and ideas for fund conversion.
The high leverage ratio of the platform indicates that the platform risk is high, that is, the bottom capacity is weak; The low leverage ratio of the platform shows that the platform has low risk and strong anti-risk ability.
What is the leverage ratio of P2P platform? The following are the leverage ratios of several other industries for your reference:
Commercial banks: Needless to say, compared with P2P, banks have the highest asset quality, and the leverage ratio is generally below 12 times.
Financing guarantee company: The establishment conditions are harsh, and the provincial government is usually responsible for it. At present, the maximum guaranteed leverage ratio is only 10 times.
P2P platform: The asset quality is higher than that of traditional financial institutions. It is generally believed that the leverage ratio of P2P platform is 5- 10 times.
At present, the leverage ratio of P2P platform is very high, mainly because the scale to be collected is too large. This is also the reason why the regulatory authorities have been asking P2P to return to small-scale decentralization.
Third, the leverage ratio is only one of the reference standards.
But then again, by calculating the leverage ratio of the platform, it is only a reference standard to judge the bottom capacity of the platform.
After all, we can only judge the underlying funds of the platform through the information disclosed by the platform, and we can't accurately know and calculate it. Most platforms will definitely tend to exaggerate their platform strength.
Therefore, the underlying funds announced by the platform will generally be more than the actual ones, not less. So what is calculated in this way is the minimum leverage ratio of the platform, which reflects the maximum capacity of the platform.
If the leverage ratio you calculated is too far from the leverage ratio of 5~ 10 times of P2P, such as 50 times or even 100 times. That means the risk of the platform is really great. Once there is a run, the risk of the platform will increase.
In addition, there are other factors that affect the leverage ratio of the platform, such as turning losses into profits or turning losses into profits, or getting a lot of venture capital financing.
Therefore, this is also why after investing in a platform, we need to track the platform we invest in regularly, instead of ignoring it as a time deposit.
Finally, I repeat: the leverage ratio of P2P platform gives us a bottom of the platform's extreme anti-risk ability. To assess the risks of P2P platform, it is necessary to integrate the platform asset business, compliance filing progress and senior management operation team to determine.