Yemen is a non-OPEC country in the Middle East. It borders Saudi Arabia and Oman in the northeast, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean in the southwest, and Somalia in Africa across the sea. Yemen is the poorest country in the Middle East, with an annual GDP of about 35.645 billion US dollars in 20 12. Although oil and gas resources are relatively scarce, oil is a pillar industry in Yemen. 25% of Yemen's GDP comes from oil, and 75% of the country's fiscal revenue and 90% of its total exports depend on crude oil sales. According to BP World Energy Statistics, by the end of 20 12, Yemen had 3 billion barrels of surplus crude oil and 16.9 trillion cubic feet of surplus natural gas. Since the daily output of crude oil in Yemen reached the peak of 465,000 barrels in 2002, it has been declining at an average annual rate of 5.3%. In 2065,438+02, the daily output decreased to 265,438+07,000 barrels, 65,438+065,438+0, and the crude oil output decreased by nearly 60%. WoodMackenzie Wood Mackenzie predicts that from 2065438 to 2022, Yemen's crude oil production will decline at an average annual rate of 6.3%.
The rapid decline in Yemen's crude oil production has attracted great attention from the government. Since 2006, the government has started diversified economic reforms, and vigorously developing natural gas is one of many measures. In June 2009, Yemen exported LNG for the first time. In recent years, Yemen has strengthened its cooperation with the international community and promoted political and economic reform, but it began on 20 1 1 at the beginning of the year? The Arab Spring? Yemen's GDP fell by 65,438+00% that year. Although it recovered in 2065,438+02, it still failed to recover to the level before 2065,438+065,438+0.
First, the commercialization of natural gas in Yemen.
Yemen's natural gas mainly comes from the associated gas in Malibu-Joff oilfield, and the production of associated gas began in the early 1990s. However, before the country's only Yemen LNG project was put into production in 2009, 98% of the natural gas produced in Yemen was reinjected (see figure) to enhance oil recovery, and only a small part (about 30 million cubic feet/day) was consumed locally.
1. Yemen LNG Project: Start selling natural gas in Yemen. In the early days, the associated gas produced in Alif and AsaadAlKamil oilfields was discharged because of its low value; In the early 1990s, natural gas treatment equipment was installed in Alif Oilfield, and 630 million cubic feet/day of separated associated gas was reinjected. With the production of Yemen LNG project in 2009, Yemen officially began to sell LNG. In that year, the sales volume was only 28 billion cubic feet, and 20 1 1 year increased to 340 billion cubic feet. Yemen LNG project was established in 2005, located in Bailehu, south coast of Yemen. This is a project integrating upstream, pipeline and LNG plant. The total investment is US$ 4.5 billion, which is the largest single investment in Yemen. Its two LNG production lines have an annual production capacity of 3.35 million tons. The gas source comes from Marib-Jawf Oilfield in 18 block, and supplies gas to the project through a pipeline with a length of 320km and a diameter of 38 inches. Total holds 50.6% interest in Yemen LNG project, and other shares are held by Hunter Oil (22%), SK Energy of Korea (12.2%), Korea Natural Gas Group (7.7%) and Hyundai Group (7.5%). In 2005, Yemen LNG signed 20-year gas supply contracts with Korea Natural Gas Group, France GDFSuez Group and Total Company, and the contracted gas supply was about 1 654,380 billion cubic feet/day, which were mainly sold to North America and Asia-Pacific region. In addition, the domestic sales obligation of Yemen LNG is 654.38 billion cubic feet/day.
In 20 12, Yemen LNG project renegotiated with Suez Group and Total to determine the new LNG price, which was increased from the original 3.24 USD/million British thermal units to 7.24 USD/million British thermal units, and at the same time, it gave the seller more flexibility and allowed it to sell in non-American markets. In 2008, Total signed a natural gas sales agreement with China Offshore Oil Corporation for 65,438+05 years. According to the agreement, Total sells 654.38 million tons of LNG to China Offshore Oil Corporation every year. In 20 10, Suez Group signed an agreement with China Offshore Oil to sell 2.6 million tons of LNG to China Offshore Oil every year during 20 13-20 17. Since it was put into production, the main sales directions of Yemeni LNG project are the United States, Mexico, South Korea, Britain, China, India and Turkey. Compared with LNG in the Middle East, especially Qatar, Yemen's flexible product sales mechanism can maximize its benefits.
2. Natural gas power generation projects are progressing slowly. In addition to making natural gas into liquefied natural gas for export, Yemeni authorities also plan to use natural gas to generate electricity to meet domestic electricity demand. The annual electricity consumption in Yemen is about 420,000 kWh, and the per capita electricity consumption is only 178 kWh. Only 42% people are connected to the power grid. On the one hand, there is insufficient power generation, and on the other hand, there is an old power grid with a loss of up to 30%, so that some big cities have power outages for 8 hours every day. Power shortage has greatly affected the country's economic development. At the same time, the young and growing population will make the country's electricity demand continue to grow. Diesel oil and heavy fuel oil are mainly used as fuels for power generation in Yemen, which not only pollutes the environment, but also is expensive. In order to maintain the cost of power generation, the government subsidizes1500 million USD every year. Although the subsidy has been reduced by 40% in recent years, the World Bank still estimates that the power generation subsidy is about 800 million to 2.7 billion US dollars. The government also rents small power generation equipment from international utility companies to solve a small part of power shortage. Natural gas power generation is cheap and clean, and at the same time it can reduce domestic crude oil consumption. Yemen's Ministry of Electric Power is expected to increase power generation 1 10MW/ year in 20 18 years. To achieve this goal, gas-fired power plants need a stable gas supply of 250 million cubic feet per day and a large amount of infrastructure investment. At present, some natural gas power generation equipment in Yemen has been put into production or is under planning. However, due to the failure to implement the natural gas contract, the government's approval has been delayed, and the regional political situation is turbulent, the project progress is slow.
3. The political situation affects the process of natural gas commercialization. The Arab Spring? Political instability, social unrest and frequent terrorist activities in Yemen are the key factors affecting the commercial operation of natural gas in Yemen. The gas source of Yemen LNG project, Malib-Shabawa, has been in turmoil since 20 1 1. In the first five months of 20 12, the LNG pipeline in Yemen was repeatedly attacked and damaged, which led to the shutdown of the facilities in March and May. 20 13 Yemen has strengthened the protection of pipelines and other facilities. In June alone, the army successfully stopped two sabotage activities against pipelines. Since the commercial operation of natural gas resources in Yemen in 2009, natural gas sales have increased rapidly, which has alleviated the impact of the decline in crude oil production to some extent. The Yemeni government hopes to realize the utilization and commercialization of domestic natural gas through LNG and natural gas power generation, but due to the political situation, the process of natural gas commercialization has regressed to some extent after 20 1 1 year.
Second, Yemen upstream natural gas development contract analysis
All natural gas contracts in Yemen are product sharing contracts (PSC), but such contracts are concluded for crude oil exploration and development business and do not involve the commercial development rights of natural gas. After 2006, in order to develop diversified economy and increase national income, the Yemeni government has taken a series of natural gas reform measures, but it is difficult to find a balance between stimulating exploration and ensuring government interests. In 2009, it took Yemen's parliament nearly a year to complete the examination and approval of the latest PSC, and the main dispute was over the natural gas clause. It was not until June 20 12 and 10 that Yemen's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources sent a letter to the operators of various blocks, formally informing them to start negotiations on the PSC natural gas clause supplementary agreement of existing blocks and encouraging oil and gas companies to explore, develop and utilize natural gas resources.
1. Contents of natural gas clauses The natural gas clauses in this negotiation are only amendments to the original PSC contract and supplements the clauses on natural gas exploration, development and utilization. The basic framework keeps the sharing mode of crude oil products unchanged, as follows.
1) Mining royalties: The natural gas mining royalties are generally 10% ~ 15% of the total output, and can be paid in kind or in currency, which can be determined through negotiation.
2) Cost recovery: The upper limit of cost recovery of natural gas development blocks is 50% of the total revenue after deducting mining royalties, and the recoverable costs are the expenses incurred during oil and gas operations in the agreed area and paid by the contractor, of which 65,438+000% of the current operating expenses can be recovered in the current period, and the proportion of exploration expenses and development expenses allowed to be recovered in the current period is 50%, and the rest can be recovered in future years.
3) Profit gas sharing ratio: After the cost is recovered, the remaining natural gas income can be distributed between the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources of Yemen and the contractor, and the specific proportion of profit gas distribution can be determined through consultation with the government. At present, there are two forms of profit gas distribution, one is to collect it according to the different sliding ratio of daily production steps. With the increase of the average daily output of natural gas, the divided gas available to the contractor gradually decreases (see table). The other is based on? R factor? For the sliding share, the R factor is the ratio of accumulated sales revenue to accumulated investment cost, and the specific share ratio is shown in the table. If it is an independent natural gas development project, other taxes and fees need to be paid, including the contractor's fixed tax equivalent to 3% of the actual exploration expenses (expenses incurred and paid in the exploration stage), the signing fee of 2 million US dollars when signing the contract, and the training fee, charity fee and social development fee of about 400,000 US dollars per year.