A number of support policies such as reducing the down payment ratio have been introduced. Experts say that it can alleviate the pressure on housing enterprises and expect that "staying in the house without speculation" will remain unchanged throughout the year.
The emergence of the first city to lower the down payment threshold has once again aroused people's concerns about the trend of the property market under the epidemic.
Recently, Zhumadian, Henan Province issued a 17 "combination boxing" policy to stabilize real estate, which not only lowered the pre-sale threshold, but also proposed that the minimum down payment ratio of the first home loan be lowered from 30% to 20%. In fact, since February, Suzhou, Nanchang, Jinan, Haikou and other cities have introduced targeted policies, involving banking institutions not to blindly lend or delay the payment of land transfer fees.
In this regard, the research report of China Merchants Securities believes that in the short term, many governments will introduce real estate support policies to hedge the risks brought by the epidemic. Looking forward to the whole year, the big framework of "staying in houses without speculation" and "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations" will not change.
For the future housing prices, many insiders said that the demand for buying houses was not cancelled because of the emergence or development of the epidemic, but was postponed. This part of the demand will be released in a centralized manner after the end of the epidemic, so the long-term impact of the epidemic on housing prices is controllable.
● Keywords 1
Down payment to reduce subsidies
In order to promote sales, Zhumadian City, Henan Province issued new regulations on February 2 1 day, which mentioned that the minimum down payment ratio of employees' first home loan was lowered from 30% to 20%. At the same time, subsidies will be given to those who buy the first house in the central city and county, including 200 yuan /m2 for all kinds of talents, Kloc-0/50 yuan /m2 for college graduates and Kloc-0/00 yuan /m2 for migrant workers. The subsidy funds will be borne by the beneficiary finance.
Coincidentally, before this, Hengyang City, Hunan Province issued the "Seventeen Balance Articles", which was interpreted by the outside world as this time for property buyers. Its supporting policies include measures such as subsidizing deed tax, subsidizing parking spaces and subsidizing talents to buy houses. For example, if the deed tax rate paid for the purchase of new commercial housing and existing housing is 1%, the government will fully subsidize it, and if the deed tax rate paid is 1.5%, the municipal finance will subsidize the buyers according to 2/3 of the deed tax paid.
Expert interpretation
Stimulating the demand for home purchase has limited practical impact.
Zhao Xiuchi, vice-president and secretary-general of Beijing Real Estate Law Society and professor of capital university of economics and business, told the Beijing News that reducing the down payment ratio in Zhumadian and other places will have a certain impact on the local real estate market and release some demand.
However, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that Zhumadian is not a first-and second-tier city, but a representative of third-and fourth-tier cities, and the actual impact of reducing the down payment ratio is limited. "However, this policy has a greater psychological impact. Individual cities began to adjust the down payment policy of provident fund, which is also the heaviest policy so far. This means that the bailout policy has entered the second stage and started to stimulate demand. "
Zhang Dawei said that housing subsidies and deed tax subsidies introduced by Zhumadian, Hengyang and other cities have a limited role in promoting local real estate sales, but many a mickle makes a mickle, which can still stimulate some rigid housing demand. In addition, most third-and fourth-tier cities have introduced real estate policies to stimulate demand, and subsequent big cities may be introduced one after another.
● Keyword 2
Don't withdraw, cut off or press the loan.
The sales end of the property market will be affected and will be directly transmitted to the capital end, which will undoubtedly be affected for some small and medium-sized housing enterprises with tight funds. Therefore, many real estate support policies introduced by many provinces and cities are related to financial support.
Haikou's policies and measures promulgated on February 18 mentioned that all banks should fully lend to key projects in the city, do a good job in financial services according to the "one enterprise, one policy", and timely allocate funds according to the progress of the projects, and must not blindly borrow, pressure or cut off loans. At the same time, for enterprises with repayment difficulties affected by the epidemic, it is necessary to alleviate the repayment pressure of enterprises by changing the repayment plan and extending the time limit, so that they can continue without downgrading their ratings or affecting their credit information.
Prior to 12 February, the policy issued by Wuxi also mentioned that the banking institutions in Wuxi should be guided to maintain a reasonable and moderate increase in the credit of real estate and construction enterprises, and they should not blindly borrow, cut off or pressure loans to alleviate the liquidity difficulties of enterprises.
Expert interpretation
Directly hit the pain point, but the regulation of the property market will not relax.
Jaco, dean of the branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, told the Beijing News reporter that under this epidemic, it can be said that the real estate industry suffered great losses. Both real estate development enterprises and real estate intermediary enterprises have affected the commercial real estate and leasing industries at the same time, so the real estate industry should also be the key aid target. From the focus of aid, the financial aspects are very obvious, including extending the repayment period, prohibiting blind lending by banks, and supporting debt issuance. These are the pain points of the current real estate industry. It is expected that more cities will introduce similar policies in the future.
It is worth noting that this does not mean that real estate regulation will be fully relaxed, and the goal of property market stability is still the focus of real estate regulation.
In addition, the research report of Chuancai Securities believes that the current policy is mostly biased towards the adjustment of the front end of supply-side project development. After the end of the epidemic, the suppressed demand is expected to be replenished in a short time, but considering the losses caused by factors such as returning home to buy a home, the replenishment may be reduced.
● Keyword 3
Deferred payment of land transfer fee
The Beijing News reporter noted that the support policy also involves allowing enterprises to postpone the payment of land transfer fees. Among them, Nanchang and Jinan introduced relevant policies around this month. Nanchang has made it clear that if the land transfer fee is paid after 65438+1October 24th, the transferee can apply for an extension of payment, from 65438+20201October 24th to the date of elimination of the epidemic15th.
In addition to the real estate market, there are many policies to regulate the land market. /kloc-In February of 0/9, Suzhou stipulated that residential (commercial/residential) plots did not need to be set with pre-sale permit for completion. If it exceeds the market guidance price, it is not necessary to apply for a pre-sale permit after the project structure is capped, and it is not necessary to apply for a pre-sale permit after the project is completed and accepted. This adjustment has also attracted much attention because it was interpreted by the market as "Suzhou canceled the capping sales and canceled the existing home sales".
Expert interpretation
Alleviate the financial difficulties of enterprises caused by the epidemic
Zhang Dawei believes that the release of multi-site real estate policy has alleviated the financial pressure of real estate enterprises to a certain extent, especially the delayed delivery of land transfer fees, which is of great significance to many enterprises that have taken land before. In Zhao Xiuchi's view, delaying the payment of land transfer fees can alleviate the financial difficulties caused by the epidemic, ensure the normal trading and supply of the land market, reduce market fluctuations, and be conducive to the stable and healthy development of the land market and the real estate market.
Regarding the measures taken by Suzhou, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that this policy is a land acquisition policy, that is to say, in the process of land acquisition, if the price is relatively high, it may not be pre-sold according to the completion, and it may be sold by auction. This policy is mainly aimed at the land to be sold in the future. This will reduce the concerns and costs of land acquisition and play a positive role in invigorating the local land market.
Yan Yuejin said that this has no direct impact on housing prices, but objectively the financial pressure of enterprises will be smaller. At this time, if the subsequent market pressure is greater, enterprises will also have more room for price reduction.
-Real estate market observation
What is the trend of house prices after the epidemic?
Recently, the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 5438+ 10 announced by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the number of cities where the sales prices of new houses and second-hand houses both rose in June this year decreased. Last month, the sales price of new houses rose in 47 cities, 3 cities less than last year's 65438+February; There are 33 cities where the sales price of second-hand houses rose month-on-month, which is also 5 cities less than that in 65438+February last year.
However, the sales prices of new and second-hand houses in the four first-tier cities rebounded from the previous month. In terms of new houses, the chain rose by 0.4%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Guo Shiying of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center believes that the first-tier cities performed well in the first half of June, driven by the market recovery years ago, driving the overall performance of 65,438+1October to be good; Second-and third-tier cities are the main target cities for returning home during the Spring Festival. Housing companies have cut prices or discounted promotions. In addition, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the new housing market is relatively "cold and cheerless", resulting in a decline in the average sales price of new housing.
Guo Shiying explained that it is expected that the market sentiment will be relatively depressed and the average market price will remain stable or decrease before the epidemic ends. However, with the end of the epidemic, the market will gradually return to the right track, the market activity will gradually increase, and the average market price will rise.
In addition, TF securities research report believes that housing demand is not an ordinary consumer demand, and it is unlikely to disappear due to short-term epidemic, and it is more lagging. Therefore, it is not ruled out that there may be a small spring in March-April, but due to the objective existence of economic losses, the price increase may be less than expected, resulting in the sales growth rate of commercial housing being less than expected.
Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun