Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Real Estate Industry
(1) The short-term closure of the sales office has a significant impact, and the income of housing enterprises has dropped significantly during the same period.
The development of the epidemic is beyond imagination, and the most direct impact on real estate is the closure of sales offices and the suspension of development projects. If sales are blocked, it means that future development and land acquisition will also be blocked. Combined with the sales data of housing enterprises in 65438+ 10, the monthly sales amount of 100 top housing enterprises was 509.75 billion yuan, and the overall performance scale of the top 100 housing enterprises decreased by nearly 12% compared with the same period of last year. It is self-evident that the real estate industry is in a dormant period due to the epidemic situation.
(2) The epidemic broke the high turnover and tested the financing ability of housing enterprises.
Real estate is a typical high-debt industry, and developers pursue extremely high turnover. Many developers are following the example of Country Garden, from land acquisition, financing, design and construction to opening, the cycle is half a year or even shorter. The purpose of high turnover is to minimize the pressure of inventory and interest;
Cash flow is the key to the survival and sustainable development of housing enterprises, especially in the case that industry sales are almost stagnant due to sudden epidemic, sales collection is blocked, cash flow pressure is greatly increased, and debt level is rising, financing ability and financing cost are very important to housing enterprises. Due to the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy, it is expected that the market capital cost will gradually decrease in the future, and the central bank will release liquidity to a certain extent. In the future, the financing ability of real estate enterprises in the market will affect the development pace of real estate enterprises to some extent.
(3) Housing enterprises with sufficient funds are expected to take land to break through.
Judging from the situation of land acquisition by real estate enterprises in June 5438+ 10, due to the peak shift of the Spring Festival, the working days are reduced, and the land acquisition by real estate enterprises is reduced. Poly Development, China Railway Construction, Vanke and other well-funded housing enterprises have maintained a certain degree of land acquisition. Affected by the epidemic, the sales repayment was blocked, and the funds of housing enterprises could not be effectively supplemented. In the short term, the overall land acquisition of housing enterprises will decrease, and the land market will continue to get cold. And some well-funded housing enterprises can seize the opportunity to replenish their inventory in this process, and the competitive pressure is relatively small, so as to achieve long-term development.
(D) Overview of China Research Institute Puhua
Undoubtedly, the most important thing for real estate enterprises at present is to pay attention to cash flow. Considering the economic situation in the first quarter, I believe that the government will also introduce some relatively large-scale stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts and RRR, and it is very likely that the regulation of real estate will be appropriately relaxed and relevant policies will be introduced to stimulate real estate growth. Pay attention to central bank policies and local real estate control policies.
Real estate investment is the investment in land and real estate development, real estate management and real estate purchase in order to obtain the expected income. Broadly speaking, the expected benefits of real estate investment vary with different investors, and government investment pays attention to macroeconomic, social and environmental benefits; Enterprise investment pays attention to profit index; If you buy real estate for your own use, you should pay attention to its use function. Although the interests pursued are different, all kinds of interests intersect and influence each other. In a narrow sense, real estate investment mainly refers to the investment of enterprises for the purpose of obtaining profits. Real estate investment is an important part of fixed assets investment, which generally accounts for more than 60% of the fixed assets investment of the whole society. It needs to mobilize a lot of social resources (including capital, land, materials, labor, technology, information and other resources) to make the investment benefit high.
How to conduct real estate investment and financial management
In fact, the debate about whether real estate belongs to consumption or investment has a long history. In China, real estate has both commodity and investment attributes. First of all, people's daily needs include food, clothing, housing and transportation. Housing is one of the most important basic needs, so real estate should have commodity attributes.
But at the same time, due to the opening of real estate in China, the price of real estate is the same every day after the construction of a large number of commercial houses. Bian Xiao read a story that a man wanted to buy a flat, but he had decided to buy it. But because the money in the bank card had not been transferred, he went out for a meal and paid the money in the afternoon. As a result, he took the contract in the afternoon, 50 thousand more than in the morning. The truth of this story is unknown, but at least one aspect shows the feasibility of real estate investment.
The role of real estate has two points:
1. Buy a house and live by yourself. No matter how cheap, you can only use one set. No matter how expensive it is, we need to buy it
2. Buy a house now, and then sell it when it increases in value, and earn the difference after realizing it, or keep it for others to use and earn rent. Generally speaking, house prices tend to rise. However, due to the crazy rise of housing prices in China, judging from the recent national macro-control and the adjustment or even decline of housing prices in some cities, it is unlikely that houses will only rise but not fall. The key depends on the timing of buying and factors such as room type, location and living environment. And recently the state has been regulating the real estate market. With the introduction of measures such as adjusting interest rates and shrinking loans, the risk of investing in real estate is getting bigger and bigger, and the income is getting smaller and smaller. According to the cost-benefit theory, it is likely that the loss will outweigh the gain.
1997 the bursting of the real estate bubble and the recent subprime mortgage crisis in the United States have all sounded the alarm for us. However, judging from the current trend, the rising trend of housing prices in first-tier cities has been basically curbed, and the housing prices in second-and third-tier cities have increased greatly, especially in third-tier cities. Investors can learn more about the real estate situation in different regions before making moves.
Expert advice: under the condition of meeting your own living requirements, you must be cautious in investing in real estate through loans at this stage. Considering the weak liquidity of the house, it is also prudent to buy real estate at one time.
Analysis on the development status and market prospect trend of real estate financial industry
Real estate finance consists of real estate finance and real estate finance. Real estate finance plays an increasingly prominent role in the national economy and people's daily life. Real estate financial behavior directly affects the effectiveness of individual housing, real estate enterprise management and economic market. The large amount of funds needed by the real estate industry and the "financial leverage principle" of real estate development and application determine that real estate funds cannot rely solely on developers' own funds, but must rely on financial instruments for financing.
At present, most real estate development enterprises in China have insufficient equity, narrow financing channels and excessive dependence on bank loans for operating funds; Because of the high return on capital, real estate developers are reluctant to let profits go to equity financing. Excessive dependence on bank loans for real estate financing may endanger the safe operation of the financial system. So far, China has not really established a complete set of systematic housing financial policies and related financial support systems, and has not yet formed a programmed implementation method in the aspects of real estate housing fund sources, government credit guarantee, reducing the burden of repayment, and personal credit information system. In addition, China's real estate financial policy has not been relatively independent of economic policy, so every real estate market regulation is essentially industrial cooperation under the background of macroeconomic "macro-control", rather than truly independent property market regulation.
After more than 20 years of development, China has basically formed a real estate financial market with bank credit financing as the mainstay, supplemented by equity, trust and bonds. Under the background of rapid development of real estate industry, China should always be alert to its risks. In China's real estate financial market, there are commercial banks, housing provident fund management centers, housing savings banks and other financial institutions engaged in real estate credit business. In the process of real estate development, almost all commercial banks have participated in credit, and credit has become the main provider of funds needed by the real estate market. In China's real estate financial market, the above other financing channels have just started, and the real estate loans they provide only account for a small proportion.
In recent years, China's real estate market has developed rapidly, which has also promoted the all-round development of the real estate financial industry and become the mainstay of the national financial field. However, because China is currently in the primary stage of socialism, the corresponding market economic system still needs to be improved. Therefore, to realize the great development of real estate finance, we must constantly strengthen financial innovation. In the development of real estate industry, the position of real estate finance is increasingly prominent. Therefore, the relevant state departments must speed up the innovation of real estate finance according to the changes in the market environment. Based on many problems existing in real estate financial innovation, by improving the scientificity of financial innovation products, rationally planning funds and scientifically optimizing the financial market structure, we can effectively improve the capital turnover of real estate industry, accelerate real estate financial innovation and promote the healthy and stable development of real estate industry.
Property market regulation is still the main tone of 20 19, and financial institutions will continue to control real estate-related financing, or although it has improved, it is unlikely to release water substantially; At the same time, the current real estate market trend has declined, real estate projects will face sales pressure and loss risk, financial institutions will be more cautious, and it will be more difficult for housing enterprises to raise funds.
With the rapid development of social economy and the further improvement of social productivity, the development of real estate finance has made a series of excellent achievements, but there are inevitably some problems. At present, the development of real estate financial industry generally has problems such as insufficient innovation of real estate financial products and concentrated financial risks, which aggravates the occurrence of non-performing assets and restricts the better development of real estate financial industry.
The People's Bank of China has always adhered to a prudent real estate credit policy. China's real estate credit quality is generally good, and real estate financial risks are controllable. The NPL ratio of real estate loans of banking financial institutions is less than 1%, and the NPL ratio of the whole banking industry is 1.85%, including policy banks, and excluding policy banks is 1.74%. Obviously, the non-performing rate of real estate loans is better than the overall loans, and the non-performing rate of personal loans is only 0.3%. According to long-term statistics, the proportion of non-performing loans in China's banking industry is still low, especially the proportion of real estate loans is lower than the overall non-performing loans, while the proportion of personal loans is even lower, which proves that the risk of real estate credit in China is controllable as a whole at this stage, and the risk of real estate finance in China need not be too worried. The regulatory authorities will also attach great importance to the potential risks and leverage level of real estate finance to ensure the safe and sustainable development of real estate finance.