The damaged three glass furnaces are not expected to be repaired and resumed production until the first quarter of next year, and the overall impact time may be as long as four months. The factory mainly supplies glass substrates below the 8.5 generation line. During the shutdown period, it is estimated that the glass substrate will be reduced by 4-5 million square meters, which is equivalent to the monthly capacity of an 8.5-generation factory. In the past weekend, NEC has urgently notified downstream panel manufacturers, clearly indicating that the next glass substrate supply will be affected.
The expansion of the supply gap of glass substrates will undoubtedly aggravate the tense relationship between supply and demand in the global panel industry, and the price of panels that are already in the rising cycle will further rise.
LGD has been hit hard, and some domestic production capacity is limited.
From the production capacity distribution of panel factory, LGD is most seriously affected by furnace accidents. At present, two LCD production lines of LGD*** are in normal production. Among them, about 80% of the glass substrates of P8 production line in South Korea are supplied by NEC, while the glass substrates of 8.5 generation line in Guangzhou are all from NEC. This means that in the next few months, the LCD production capacity of LGD will be severely hit.
Industry analysts pointed out that in the China market, some production capacity in JD.COM and Hui Ke has also been greatly affected. 90% of the glass substrates of BOE's B 10 production line are provided by NEC, and all the glass substrates of Hui Ke H4 factory are provided by NEC. According to industry sources, after learning of the furnace accident, BOE has urgently contacted Corning Company to coordinate the addition of glass substrates.
In addition, AUO, Innolux and CLP Panda are also affected to varying degrees. The above-mentioned industry analysts predict that the suspension of production of NEC in Japan will directly lead to a decline of 500,000-700,000 pieces of global TV panel monthly shipments.
According to Morgan Stanley's analysis in the research report, among the panel manufacturers in China, TCL Huaxing, Tianma and Visionox have relatively limited influence on their production capacity due to the limited orders allocated to NEC.
Panel supply is under double pressure, and prices are expected to continue to rise.
Under the influence of the epidemic, in the first half of this year, both the global TV panel shipments and the shipment area declined significantly. "AVC Industry Chain-Global Panel Shipment Data Report" shows that in the first half of 2020, global TV panel shipments reached 65.438+0.3 billion pieces, a sharp drop of 9.2% year-on-year; The shipping area was 78.8 million square meters, down 0.5% year-on-year.
In the case that the capacity expansion of the panel factory slows down, the shortage of materials in the upstream supply chain also limits the shipment of the panel factory. Under the wave of popularization of 5G mobile phones this year, foundries began to allocate more production capacity to more profitable 5G mobile phone IC components, while the production capacity of IC components used in LCD panels was greatly weakened, such as T-COM chips and PCB original factories.
In this context, the suspension of production in Japan's electric nitrate plant will lead to the continued expansion of the panel supply gap. Morgan Stanley pointed out that as the third largest supplier of glass substrates in the world, Japanese electric nitrite accounts for about 15%-20% of the global market share, and this accident will directly reduce the global glass substrate supply by 2%-3%.
In addition, due to geopolitical factors, the supply of chips is also in a tight state.
On the other hand, from the demand side, due to the impact of the autumn epidemic, some stocks originally prepared in overseas terminal markets have been digested in advance, resulting in low inventory in overseas channels. Overseas channels need to speed up stocking to prevent the phenomenon of short supply. Under the joint action of supply and demand, the price of TV panels will continue to rise.
In this context, panel manufacturers less affected by furnace accidents will benefit from the next wave of price increases. Morgan Stanley predicts that the relationship between supply and demand of panels will be further tightened in the coming months, which will continue to be beneficial to panel prices. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)