To calculate the success rate of Internet entrepreneurial projects, here is a general algorithm:
Venture success probability ≈ investment success probability ≈ (domain size/1000 billion yuan)/number of entrepreneurial teams in the window period.
The data shows that among the 200 websites in China, the survival rate is only one in 60,000, and more than 99% of the websites are failures; Liu Qin, one of Xiaomi's investors, once gave a data: if IPO is the standard, the probability of successful entrepreneurship is only one in 50,000;
In the United States, 40% of startups will die after one year, and the mortality rate will be as high as 80% after five years, while only 4% of companies can exist for 10 years;
Harvard Business School found that the success rate of the first venture is 23%, and the success rate of successful entrepreneurs is 34%.
10 years ago, it took a company 15 to 20 years to become famous in China, and the entry of venture capital greatly shortened this time; But for the vast majority of entrepreneurs, it is inevitable to work more than 80 hours a week for 5 to 8 years in order to succeed in starting a business;
Even if the business is successful, it is not worth being complacent, because sometimes, "luck" accounts for more than 50%; Even if you become a few successful people, you should always keep a sense of crisis;
How dangerous entrepreneurship is;
The case of listing in three years and getting investors in five minutes is not without, but the probability is too low. What's more, most legendary stories that shock you are just a boast;
A cruel reality is that there are many entrepreneurs and few winners. There are always accidental factors in success, which are often unrepeatable. Instead of studying how others succeed, it is better to study the lessons of others' failures and always be vigilant;
Entrepreneurship is a hard and protracted war, and entrepreneurs need to improvise according to market conditions, consumers' reactions and competitors' dynamics. On the road to starting a business, the most common thing is not success or failure, but a long struggle.